Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Igel

(35,173 posts)
10. Oh, for crying out loud.
Sun Mar 2, 2014, 03:02 PM
Mar 2014

One key thing that is used in diplomacy, esp. when confronted with escalation, is called a "bluff." ("Bleff" in Russian.)

Does the memorandum require us to go to war?

Well, if Putin thinks it does and thinks that we both believe it does and are ready to act on it, it makes the chances of war much less. Putin doesn't want war. He wants to win. Winning without war is better, and it's unclear where he's set the bar for actually going to war. Against a small, insignificant power the bar's low. Against Ukraine, probably not quite so low--although with dual loyalties riddling the military, that'll be a guess (and if the leaders dispose of those with dual loyalties, it'll exacerbate the sense of alienation on the part of the Russo-Ukrainians).

Having somebody sit behind the poker player and say, "Guys, he's bluffing!" isn't helpful.

In fact, if done in a way that Putin thinks reflects western thinking, it lowers the bar for invasion and makes it *more* likely. It shows that the West is divided, weak, and decides to show it's soiled underwear in public every chance it gets. It's contemptible, from another culture's POV.

The only "good thing" is that it makes it safer for *us*, even if it makes it much more dangerous for others.

A lot of people are saying they don't like having their beautiful minds bothered by the idea of actually having their values suggest action for some people that aren't us. They'd be content to wring their hands at atrocities as long as they can find somebody else to blame. "Yes, it's a shipwreck, but it's not *my* fault. Let's focus on blaming somebody so we feel superior, and not on the atrocity or even what we can do now--although perhaps an academic boycott of Russian scholars in Ukraine will do the trick!"

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Does the Budapest Memoran...»Reply #10