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Response to BainsBane (Reply #138)

Wed Jun 19, 2013, 09:48 PM

144. actually, we knew all of that

87 percent of what they traced. That is 12 percent of total guns.
Page eight of the GAO report
While it is impossible to know how many firearms are illegally trafficked into Mexico in a given year, around 87 percent of firearms seized by Mexican authorities and traced over the
past 5 years originated in the United States, according to data from ATF.
IOW, 87 percent of the ones given to the ATF.

In the past gunners have pointed to Central America as an alternative source of guns. Their lack of knowledge of recent US foreign policy means they overlook the fact that guns in Central America were supplied by the US government in order to combat communist guerrillas there. We waged war on Central America, and the resulting violence in that region since is the fallout of the decommissioning of death squads. For proof to that I'll have to refer you to any number of publications on US involvement in the region: NACLA is one publication, and there are reams of books in the library. Those publications can in turn direct you to the primary sources they used.
The guns, including the Soviet suppled ones, are still there, in armories, in working order. They last awhile. Syrian rebels are using bolt action Enfields from World War Two. So is the Taliban. Thompsons that were used in Ireland in the 1920s found their way to Bosnia 70 years later. The average age of a gun smuggled from the US to Mexico if 14 years old. You can buy 100 year old Lugers being used at shooting ranges. There are military surplus AKs all over Africa, cheaper than a good sporting rifle. You need to research your subjects better. that is the difference between someone with a history degree and an intelligence analyst.


You might also search ministerio de justicia reports for Mexico to read what they have to say about the gun issue.
Yeah, of course they are going to mention guns leaving with deserting Mexican troops, also of US origin. I'm skeptical of government reports, including DEA ones that say "pot leads to heroin" yes I'm old enough to remember those. You seriously think I'm going to take some report at face value even if it comes from one of the most corrupt governments in the Western Hemisphere?

The absence of the ability to trace all the guns does not mean that the guns didn't come from the US. That means they aren't traceable. It is a logical fallacy to conclude that it constitutes evidence that they come from lands far away.
Actually, the Mexican government would turn over those that would likely come from the US, as in made in the US or have markings that show it was imported to the US. Yes the ATF can trace an M-60 even if it came through the southern border, the trace would show it was sold to El Salvidor in the 1980s. It would be pointless for Mexico to give full auto AKs to the ATF, because they could not trace it. The Russian government might. The G-36 assault rifle made by Heckler and Koch, same thing. They could ask the German government, but the ATF could not because they are full auto and can not be bought at Wal Mart. Pistols like the Glock 25, the Austrian government could, but the ATF couldn't because those pistols are not imported to the US, at least not on the commercial market. This is important since the cartels are using more true assault rifles, machine guns, weapons, crew serviced weapons, and destructive devices like grenades. None of which can be bought in a US gun store.

It is a greater logical fallacy to assume they are likely US origin with no evidence.
Those are just a few of the flaws in your reasoning.
You might be a good historian, but that isn't the same as being an intelligence annalist or investigator.

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