General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Notice to the Democratic party.... [View all]Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I think Barack Obama is a far more likable figure than Hillary. I get some might be inclined to point to the fact she has a higher approval than him right now, but in a role that didn't necessarily thrust her into the spotlight at every turn (Benghazi aside). I think that approval was instrumental in getting him reelected in tough economic conditions. I do not think any president could have won that last election - but Obama, who's generally well liked, was given a second chance by the American people because they want him to succeed.
Had Clinton won the nomination in 2008, I think her popularity struggles similar to how it struggled before she lost the nomination. Back then, she was a very divisive figure and I don't see how that eases up in the general. Though she defeats McCain, probably rather easily, her approval ceiling is much less than Obama's and the honeymoon far shorter (remember, Obama held approval of 50-plus into 2010). I don't know if she would have advocated for a bigger stimulus - or even as large of a stimulus. That might be what defines her presidency. But because the economy was so battered, I think, best case scenario, the economy is in a near-similar spot it has been in the past four years.
Because of that, I'm skeptical her approval would've withheld like Obama's. Even her husband's tanked into the 30s in 1994 - two years before the election. He was able to regain his footing with an improving economy and triangulation, but the damage at the time left many doubting his chances. That never happened for Obama. While the Democratic brand took a hit in 2010, Obama's approval has never really settled in below 45% nationally on average - though, there are some polls that put it there.
With her approval slumping, and an economy slowly improving, I think she would've faced a far bigger uphill battle than Obama in the election.
The best thing for Hillary's career might've been losing to Barack Obama. It allowed her to rehabilitate her image in a lot of American's minds. Prior to that loss, she was a near 50/50 figure - 50% loved her and 50% loathed her. There wasn't many indifferent people when it came to Hillary. Today? That's changed. Which has allowed her to be looked at differently and with more respect than this figure many felt was only in her position because she was the wife of Bill Clinton.
It's why if she runs again in 2016, I think she can win. But 2012, and four years as the head (wo)man of the nation would've probably been a more toxic landscape for her - not just among Democrats (even Obama had his rough spots with libs and look at how many here are freaking out about her 'potential' run), but also average Americans, who've probably been won over a bit these past four years. Well, it's easier to win 'em over when you're not constantly in the spotlight taking the hits Obama has, showing great leadership internationally and really forging your own path.
I don't think she would've been able to do that had she won in 2008. I think she'd still be seen as the divisive figure with very high negative numbers and that would've only been amplified as president - when you're a lightning rod for every petty attack.