"Better days are in store" American Economic future [View all]
"Better days are in store": Joe Davis on America's economic future
December 07, 2012
In a recent speech to business leaders at a conference in Washington, D.C., Vanguard chief economist Joseph Davis, Ph.D., shared his thoughts on why, despite serious fiscal and economic challenges, the United States may be in the midst of a new industrial revolution—one that could provide the engine for sustained growth.
An edited transcript of Mr. Davis's speech is presented here; you can view a video of his full remarks on Vanguard's website for institutional investors.
Good morning, and welcome. I am honored to speak with you today.
If we look over the past 225 years since George Washington's first term in office, our average economic experience as a nation has been a very, very good one.
Cautious optimism and the light in the tunnel
With this as a backdrop, what is Vanguard's long-term outlook for the U.S. economy? In two words: cautious optimism.
Yes, amid all the talk of doom and gloom, I see flickers of light at the end of the tunnel, but my near-term outlook is a very cautious one, marked by serious downside risks, given the fiscal challenges here and around the world.
As I look out over the horizon, over the next five or 10 years or even longer, I see another economic future that few are talking about—one that could, just could, return our economy back to that white light. It's driven by a force that has been more than a generation in the making; a powerful, underappreciated force that has the potential to raise the standard of living for all of mankind, and that will reshape the world; a force that, like its predecessors, has the U.S. in the front, not in the back; a force that is not local but global; and a force whose positive and powerful impact on productivity and growth has only just begun.