HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » New Nate Silver: ".....

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:56 PM

New Nate Silver: "...this wont be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue." [View all]


November 8, 2012, 4:15 PMComment

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage


Two more presidential elections, 2016 and 2020, will be contested under the current Electoral College configuration, which gave Barack Obama a second term on Tuesday. This years results suggest that this could put Republicans at a structural disadvantage.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the returns, Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College. The last Republican to accomplish that was George H.W. Bush, in 1988. In the table below, I have arranged the 50 states and the District of Columbia from the most Democratic to the most Republican, based on their preliminary results from Tuesday. Along the way, I have counted up the number of electoral votes for the Democratic candidate, starting at zero and going up to 538 as he wins progressively more difficult states.

- snip -

Had the popular vote been a tie assuming that the margin in each state shifted uniformly he would still have won re-election with 285 electoral votes, carrying Colorado and Virginia, although losing Florida and Ohio.

In fact, had Mr. Romney won the popular vote by two percentage points, Mr. Obama would still have won the Electoral College, losing Virginia but holding onto Colorado.

- snip -

If the parties continue down the same paths, however, this wont be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue.


4 replies, 1320 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 4 replies Author Time Post
Reply New Nate Silver: "...this wont be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue." [View all]
Hissyspit Nov 2012 OP
SoCalDem Nov 2012 #1
louis-t Nov 2012 #2
Kber Nov 2012 #3
oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #4