As other polls show tight race, Gallup stands apart
WASHINGTON | Fri Oct 19, 2012 10:08pm EDT
By Andy Sullivan
- snip -
Questions about the gap between Gallup's findings and those of other pollsters is the latest fuss this election season over polling methodology as partisan passions come to a boil in the heated final weeks before the November 6 presidential contest.
With a record of correctly predicting all but three of the 19 presidential races stretching back to 1936, Gallup is one of the most prestigious names in the business and its outlier status has other polling experts scratching their heads.
- snip -
When Obama opened up a wide lead in polls last month, Republicans accused researchers of interviewing too many Democrats. Those complaints evaporated when Romney surged ahead after his strong October 3 debate performance.
Now, the Obama campaign is questioning the validity of Gallup's methods after it released a poll earlier this week that showed Romney leading among likely voters in the handful of battleground states that will decide the election.
Obama pollster Joel Benenson called the Gallup survey an "extreme outlier" and said its formula to determine likely voters created a bias against Obama supporters. "Gallup's data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters," he wrote in a memo on Monday.