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Response to AverageJoe90 (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 11:45 PM

43. i think his model doesn't just aggregate a day's polling. i think it extrapolates a trend.

i think, to some extent, if it sees an increase in the polls over some period of time, it assumes that it will, to some extent, continue. so i think the 80+% numbers we saw for a while were to some extent based on an assumption that obama's rise in the polls would continue.

when the polls reversed course after the debate, obama's number came down. after a few days, silver's model identified a trend for rmoney, and obama's number got hammered as it assumed rmoney's rise would continue.


i'm not discounting problems others have noted -- overweighting of suspect polls, in particular -- but i think this trend aspect exaggerates the problem.

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