Something to keep in mind about fishy sounding polls... [View all]
Republican candidates rely upon election fraud. That is because their base, though loyal, is small. So they have to "help out" the vote, by throwing in extra votes for their candidate and erasing votes for the Democrat. This is not a new thing. I remember a life long politically active Republican telling me her polling place vote stealing strategies back in 1976 (she thought I was a Republican). Back then, it was insert a finger under the lever in the back if a known Democrat was casting a ballot. That kept the Dem's vote from being tabulated. Now it is e-voting machine "sleep overs" and phony death lists and polling place challenges. Many of these tactics are illegal.
If Romney is way behind in the polls, GOP election operatives on the ground will hesitate to steal votes, for fear of being caught and prosecuted by the Obama administration. If they think Romney could win, they will go all out, secure in the knowledge that Romney's attorney general will turn a blind eye to their criminal activity the way that Ashcroft and Gonzo did.
So, Team Romney has a very strong incentive to encourage lots of sloppy polling that puts him ahead. That way, they know that their election workers will work extra hard for him. And if he loses and they all end up going to jail for nothing? He won't care. He'll still be a millionaire.
The reason I wonder about the credibility of some of these polls is that they just don't make sense. One predicts that Latino turnout will be down---even though it has been rising steadily for two decades. Another has Jewish voters favoring Romney two to one. While the polling firms would never knowingly lie, there is nothing to stop casino mogul Sheldon Adelson from bribing a number cruncher. And of course, if just one poll out of many shows Romney up because of normal statistical variation, the right wing press will seize upon and and tell the country "He's ahead!" without combining the results of all the polls, which is what is usually done.