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Response to dsc (Reply #13)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 12:44 AM

19. You are correct, dsc, I worded this sloppily because I was tired when I posted (I never learn)

Here is what I wrote:

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6% chance of an Obama win. President Obama is down 8.7% (EC) since September 29; Romney is plus 8.8% (EC) projection.

Here is what I meant:

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6 electoral college votes. President Obama is down 8.7 electoral college votes predicted September 29; Romney is plus 8.8 electoral college votes.

In other words, since September 29th, according to Nate's predictions on two different days, he has decreased his electoral college votes for President Obama downward 8.7 and awarded 8.8 electoral college votes to Romney.

Okay, I think I straightened out that part, but who knows, I am still tired.

Here is the other point: on that September 29th date, when I wrote the original thread, he gave Obama a 69.4 percent chance of winning Florida. As of this very moment, I see it has changed again even from when I submitted this second thread this morning:

Currently Nate's prediction as I type this response:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

He has Obama at 307.6 electoral college votes prediction (down 12.5 since September 30th)
He has Romney at 230.4 electoral college votes prediction (up 12.5 since September 30th)

IT IS DOWN FURTHER THIS EVENING FROM WHEN I POSTED THE SECOND THREAD THIS MORNING! So what we are left with is we went from 319.3 electoral college votes predicted for Obama September 29th, and now Nate has him at 307.6 electoral college votes. He predicts 230.4 electoral college votes for Romney.

Further, he currently predicts a 55.4 chance of Obama carrying Florida -- down from 69.4 percent chance on September 29th.

The crux of the problem: Florida has 27 electoral college votes. If you subtract 27 from the current 307.6 prediction of electoral college votes for Obama and add them to Romney's current 230.4 electoral college votes, this is what you have:

Obama 280.6 (still an Obama win without Florida)
Romney 257.4 (close but no cigar with Florida)

But that is only as of right now a 23.2 point difference -- a much tighter race than the one predicted by Silver September 29th. If Romney moved Virginia (13 EC votes), Wisconsin (10 EC votes and also the home of suspect election vote tallies recently) and Iowa (7 EC votes), then you would have:

Romney at 287.4 electoral college votes
Obama at 250.6 electoral college votes

Yes, I grabbed those 3 swing states out of thin air just to make a point. That point is this is a much tighter race since September 29th and we need to be aware.

And the big question for me: what is going on in Florida that Obama's chances of winning keep slipping downward?

Okay, sorry for my sloppy wording earlier.

Sam



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Samantha Oct 2012 OP
porphyrian Oct 2012 #1
Samantha Oct 2012 #2
porphyrian Oct 2012 #4
Samantha Oct 2012 #6
porphyrian Oct 2012 #9
Samantha Oct 2012 #11
porphyrian Oct 2012 #12
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #3
Samantha Oct 2012 #7
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #5
Samantha Oct 2012 #8
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #10
dsc Oct 2012 #13
PCIntern Oct 2012 #14
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #15
LineLineNew Reply You are correct, dsc, I worded this sloppily because I was tired when I posted (I never learn)
Samantha Oct 2012 #19
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #16
Michigan Alum Oct 2012 #18
Samantha Oct 2012 #20
Michigan Alum Oct 2012 #17
Godless in Seattle Oct 2012 #21
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