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Sun Oct 7, 2012, 11:43 AM

Florida, Florida, Florida -- keeping our eyes on the prize [View all]

Today, Nate Silver shows Florida as a 58.7% Obama win.

On September 29, I posted a thread here with Nate Silver's prediction Obama had a 69.4% chance of winning Florida:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021438787

On that date, President Obama had a projected 319.3 electoral college votes. Today, Nate predicts 310.6% chance of an Obama win. President Obama is down 8.7% (EC) since September 29; Romney is plus 8.8% (EC) projection.
I am demoralized. I do have hope that the resulting debate controversy moving now into a different direction coupled with the impressive jobs number report issued Friday will have a very positive impact.

And then we have, of course, heard about the death panels Romney/Ryan have put back into the political discussion, potentially frightening seniors away from Obama. Not true of course, but the literal truth seems to be a non-existent commodity in the Republicans' quest for the Oval Office.

But this kind of swing in Florida in between September 29 and today shows just how fluid that state can be on a dime. Since many election commentators have said it is difficult to see a path to 270 for Romney without Florida, I had hope that that 69.4% edge Obama had September 29 would grow to an extent there was no possibility Romney could win (or "take") that state.

The good news is that regarding the popular vote President Obama still has a projected 51.1 percent of the popular vote. So when you hear Mitt Romney say his goal is to obtain 50.1 percent of the vote, if Obama's numbers hold or increase, Mitt won't get his 50.1. That is just the "arithmetic" of it but the voting "anomalies" could threaten reported election day numbers, of course.

Keep your eye on the prize and do whatever you can to keep Romney out of the Oval Office and to give President Obama his earned second term.

Sam

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Reply Florida, Florida, Florida -- keeping our eyes on the prize [View all]
Samantha Oct 2012 OP
porphyrian Oct 2012 #1
Samantha Oct 2012 #2
porphyrian Oct 2012 #4
Samantha Oct 2012 #6
porphyrian Oct 2012 #9
Samantha Oct 2012 #11
porphyrian Oct 2012 #12
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #3
Samantha Oct 2012 #7
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #5
Samantha Oct 2012 #8
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #10
dsc Oct 2012 #13
PCIntern Oct 2012 #14
LiberalAndProud Oct 2012 #15
Samantha Oct 2012 #19
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #16
Michigan Alum Oct 2012 #18
Samantha Oct 2012 #20
Michigan Alum Oct 2012 #17
Godless in Seattle Oct 2012 #21