Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

General Discussion

Showing Original Post only (View all)

sofa king

(10,857 posts)
Thu Oct 4, 2012, 12:39 PM Oct 2012

The Backfire Effect: why Obama didn't call out Romney. [View all]

"But why would people so woefully lacking in the basic facts of an issue think they were the best informed? Social scientists call the effect, 'pseudo-certainty.' I call it, 'being a fucking moron.'" -- Al Franken

The use of cognitive bias against the public can probably be traced back to the United States' foundation. Consider, for example, the rapier-like tact Americans used in the Declaration of Independence, directing all of their ire against Great Britain's slowly maddening King instead of the Parliament that they knew had wronged them. I think it is a classic example of misdirection, in the same family of dishonesty as mentioning Osama bin Laden in the same paragraph every time one mentions Saddam Hussein.

Last night, Mitt Romney made the most of a particular cognitive bias which we all need to know about. It is called the Backfire Effect. Here is a link to the paper.

People have a bad habit of clinging to disinformation, particularly if they are fed the disinformation first. If the disinformation is refuted, many of us simply give up trying to figure the problem out and default to the first thing we learned, and if the first thing we learned is crap, we believe the crap.

We are all vulnerable to some degree to the Backfire Effect, but there is a critical difference in the way the Backfire Effect works between conservatives and liberals, Democrats and Republicans.

The shortest version I can give is this: when a conservative lies and a liberal refutes the lie, conservative observers become more likely to believe the lie. This effect does not work in reverse--because liberals have better thinking skills, I say, but I'm biased. This is part of the reason why an alarming number of American doofuses are still shambling about thinking that Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11, and why the vast majority of them are Republicans.

Up to now, Mitt Romney's biggest problem has been that he hasn't won over the right-wing authoritarians who make up the most important voting bloc in the Republican Party, and maybe in all of American politics. They are diligent voters and can be easily programmed with lies, fear, and racism, of which they are fed a steady diet by Fox News and AM radio. Almost one in four Americans fits the profile of a right-wing authoritarian.

Despite every effort, right down to nominating arch-conservative darling Paul Ryan, Romney just hasn't been able to convince them that he's their guy.

And why should they think so, when Romney gamed the nomination process, knocked off the conservative authorities they trust one by one, and silenced all dissent at the convention? He had to steal it from them before he can steal it from us, and they haven't easily forgotten.

Last night was Romney's last big chance. He's got the press and the pollsters pulling for him to make it a closer race, because it is to their personal, professional, and financial advantage. He has finally assembled the captive audience of right-wing authoritarians he needs to win over. All he needed to do was to finally, permanently, establish himself as a conservative authority, someone the conservatives can trust.

He needed President Obama to help him, by doing what every Democrat, including myself, wanted him to do: call Mitt a liar.

So Mitt Romney went out and did what he's best at. He lied his ass off. He changed a central plank of his platform at the debate in an attempt to draw out President Obama, to encourage the President to raise his voice and express outrage at such malicious dishonesty.

But President Obama wouldn't bite.

Instead, the President stuck to his own policy, his own platform, and pointed out only the most basic and agreed-upon flaws in whatever Romney's so-called plan is today (or rather, last night, because I'm sure he's walking back half of what he said right now). He tried not to show flashes of anger or disgust, as Al Gore so tragically did in 2000.

It was probably disappointing to all of us here to see the President steer away from direct confrontation, but it probably also sealed the election for him.

Consider what would have happened had the debate swung a different way.

Gov. Romney: "I'm not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. That's not my plan...."

President Obama: "That's bullshit. You've run on that all year."

Millions of Democrats would have stood up and cheered at that moment, to be sure, but it wouldn't have done a damned thing to change the political landscape because we're all already going to go out and vote for President Obama, and every other Democrat on the ballot. We're all registered now, right?

Just as certainly, a giant mob of tea-partiers would have been on their feet and whooping. That would have been the signal they needed, the sign from baby Jesus that Mitt Romney was the anointed one. They would have dusted off their IDs and registrations, and they would have come out and voted--at a higher frequency, unfortunately, than we do. Millions of our votes would have been canceled out.

We need to realize that right now an unusually high number of right-wing voters are far closer to reality than they usually are. They don't trust Mitt Romney, and they shouldn't, and it is to their credit that they do not in spite of the enormous psyops being run on them.

But we also need to acknowledge that these voters unfortunately tend strongly toward racism, and are highly motivated to vote against President Obama simply because he is a person of color. President Obama will never win their vote--but he might win their non-vote.

So that is why President Obama didn't "win" last night's debate. Because this debate wasn't about us. But do you know who is going to refute Mitt Romney's bullshit? We are. In the voting booth.

91 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
K&R dionysus Oct 2012 #1
Maybe. We'll have to see. nt Deep13 Oct 2012 #2
I'll endorse maybe, too HereSince1628 Oct 2012 #76
another kick JustAnotherGen Oct 2012 #3
great angle FirstLight Oct 2012 #4
That's true treestar Oct 2012 #5
I don't watch the debates, but I don't consider myself apolitical Harry Monroe Oct 2012 #85
This is the best post since last night's Big Bird debate . . . fleur-de-lisa Oct 2012 #6
Actually he changed it a day or so before the debate. dkf Oct 2012 #7
Not to mention the fact that "Moderate Mitt" showed up at the debate Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2012 #8
That's exactly what I've been wondering about. YellaDog1950 Oct 2012 #74
"Lying for the right"? Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2012 #83
A big bingo! BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #9
It wasn't the conservatives who mattered last night. Bake Oct 2012 #10
Absolutely correct Texin Oct 2012 #41
This reminds me of the Muhammad Ali vs George Foreman fight cmelo Oct 2012 #81
. n/t porphyrian Oct 2012 #11
K&R redqueen Oct 2012 #12
Thank you for a better explanation then what I Could give LynneSin Oct 2012 #13
+1 jonesgirl Oct 2012 #16
Bookmarked! The "backfire effect". That's very interesting. VERY!! Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #14
All DUers...Yahoo! News is having a field day with all the comments posted in favor of Romney. I've jonesgirl Oct 2012 #15
I'm not buying this. Reagan's "Well there you go again" was a turning point.... groundloop Oct 2012 #17
But Romney called the President a boy and a liar fasttense Oct 2012 #28
Kick and Recommend ! politicaljack78 Oct 2012 #18
This is a good perspective!! hue Oct 2012 #19
It sure would be nice if conservatives could think Poiuyt Oct 2012 #20
Then they wouldn't be conservatives SecularMotion Oct 2012 #32
Of course my local paper.... 47of74 Oct 2012 #21
And the bitter tears they shed on Nov. 7 will taste sweet as nectar to me. Ikonoklast Oct 2012 #33
That was hilarious agent46 Oct 2012 #65
The man couldn't spend his whole night refuting Mitts lies. Ganja Ninja Oct 2012 #22
Well written, well researched, cogent points. I agree with the thesis. Thank you for writing it.nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2012 #23
Outstanding post. Skinner Oct 2012 #24
K & R and bookmarking to remember. Great OP. freshwest Oct 2012 #25
The truth lies somewhere between the teeth-gnashing, garment rending and the N-dimensional chess. lumberjack_jeff Oct 2012 #26
That was an excellent piece of writing MrScorpio Oct 2012 #27
great post, thank you nt steve2470 Oct 2012 #29
Yes, Yes, Yes defacto7 Oct 2012 #30
Correct on all points! JNelson6563 Oct 2012 #31
Mitt appeared manic last night... southern_belle Oct 2012 #34
If that is the case -- Romney is somewhat bipolar -- then he will get wilder and wilder JDPriestly Oct 2012 #64
And if, God help us, he becomes President? Harry Monroe Oct 2012 #86
In short, be careful responding to lies in politics DaveJ Oct 2012 #35
Feel good post but Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #36
In regard to looking down.. DaveJ Oct 2012 #37
He was just making notes on Romney's points because there were so many being tblue37 Oct 2012 #50
Yes, I think you've got it Tumbulu Oct 2012 #38
rope a dope n/t Knicks007 Oct 2012 #39
Obama used the right tactics in the debate. penndragon69 Oct 2012 #40
playing possum? dropboss11 Oct 2012 #42
I think this is complete and utter nonsense. GumboYaYa Oct 2012 #43
Obama is betting on the American People DearAbby Oct 2012 #89
Thanks, interesting take. I don't know how Mitt's leftward tack figures in exactly. MatthewStLouis Oct 2012 #44
So it's important to enable liars for our own gain? LOL just1voice Oct 2012 #45
So IOW, Romney really wasn't aiming for the swing voters last night? DinahMoeHum Oct 2012 #46
I thought that each of president Obama's un-staged looks of disbelief, were better than Hubert Flottz Oct 2012 #47
Refreshing take on last night! Obama stood incredulous next to Jello Man but if FailureToCommunicate Oct 2012 #48
one of the best analyses yet. thank you! BlancheSplanchnik Oct 2012 #49
It's an incredible post...until I got to the end of it..."Devil is in the Details" and KoKo Oct 2012 #51
Big K&R...for an Incredible Introspection about our President. KoKo Oct 2012 #52
Great analysis! Dyedinthewoolliberal Oct 2012 #53
TOTALLY on point, THANKS! nt Raine Oct 2012 #54
Well said and agreed. n/t VespertineIconoclast Oct 2012 #55
Excellent writing. Thank you. rhiannon55 Oct 2012 #56
thought-provoking shireen Oct 2012 #57
K&R Kurovski Oct 2012 #58
Wow Pamelajaynn Oct 2012 #59
K&R for a well reasoned post and kudos for using the correct term "disinformation" Turborama Oct 2012 #60
Yes....I'm the token Liberal at work. My philosophy has been simple this election season... RagAss Oct 2012 #61
awesome! kind of a jujitsu strategy NoMoreWarNow Oct 2012 #75
Hmm... flying rabbit Oct 2012 #62
the evidence for your post that I saw Kali Oct 2012 #63
Great Article Shuhered Oct 2012 #66
So well articulated emsimon33 Oct 2012 #67
This post is sofa king good. King_Klonopin Oct 2012 #68
Well see, sofa king.. Loved Cha Oct 2012 #69
paraphrase: "when a liberal refutes the lie, conservatives become more likely to believe the lie." Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #70
President Obama was "Napoleonic" at the debate- stlsaxman Oct 2012 #71
Interesting angle... ermasdaughter Oct 2012 #72
Thank you. littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #73
Religious conservatives believe in a virgin birth, even though it's impossible. mwb970 Oct 2012 #77
Mehh, Over Complicated Take Iggy Oct 2012 #78
Thank you....I also feel the debate was a bit of an ambush... All articulate lies.. nenagh Oct 2012 #79
Interesting food for thought. n/t deutsey Oct 2012 #80
Interesting take on it. TreasonousBastard Oct 2012 #82
THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST Tippy Oct 2012 #84
Great analysis and loved the Franken quote DLine Oct 2012 #87
Huck A Buck thelarge Oct 2012 #88
i hope that's right. i felt that ellenfl Oct 2012 #90
The President needs to call Mitt out on his dishonesty, and he needs to do it in the debate. Paddy Ryan Oct 2012 #91
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»The Backfire Effect: why ...