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Response to discopants (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:17 AM

13. Sorry. I do not buy 538 electoral map.

The only worse one is the one that throws out Rasmussen. (In science one learns that there are always outliers. If one wants an unbiased data set, you do not throw any of it out. The biases will cancel out, on average. Look up Gaussian distribution and standard deviation.)

All the othe electoral maps, none show Obama with a majority EV. The median one may be TPM, or the Princeton EV map.

However, none of them are meaningful at all until polling accelerates as we approach the election. The polls on which all of the EV projections are based are too old, too few, and way too speculative. The error bars are wide and one inevitably chooses the most optimistic as confirmation bias.

The best thing at this point in the game is to ignore the absolutes and look only at the changes.

Or! Make your own electoral map based only on all known and recent data or whatever criteria you choose. Just do not throw out any data, no matter how biased you perceive it to be. That's not allowed.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
oldhippydude Sep 2012 OP
jberryhill Sep 2012 #1
gordianot Sep 2012 #2
jberryhill Sep 2012 #4
gordianot Sep 2012 #8
lonestarnot Sep 2012 #12
nadinbrzezinski Sep 2012 #3
aaaaaa5a Sep 2012 #5
alcibiades_mystery Sep 2012 #6
Larkspur Sep 2012 #7
quinnox Sep 2012 #9
discopants Sep 2012 #10
LineLineNew Reply Sorry. I do not buy 538 electoral map.
longship Sep 2012 #13
DonRedwood Sep 2012 #11
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