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Response to rppper (Original post)

Sat Aug 25, 2012, 09:42 PM

13. Conventional wisdom is that all but 8% have their minds firmly made up

I think conventional wisdom may be wrong. The logic the seasoned watchers use is simply that in "normal election cycles" (if there is such a thing anymore) most of the fence-sitters don't really settle in until the last 3 or 4 weeks. They only start paying attention in earnest after the conventions, after Labor Day.

I think that could be very wrong this year. What is different is that this time, there has been a solid, unrelenting 3 years of non-stop attacks on the President. Obama hasn't been campaigning for the most part. He has been governing. But the Republicans had absolutely no interest in governing. They have done nothing but obstruct. Instead of doing their part in governing, they have been actively campaigning the entire time, trying to ruin Obama.

That takes its toll. But the Republicans have a big problem. Almost all of those attacks were based on huge lies. And the biggest was "Obamacare". Obama was very clever to get that set up such that major benefits of the ACA kick in before the election. A lot of people who entered this election cycle counting themselves as decided against Obama are starting to saw, "hey, there really aren't death panels. I still have my doctor. And now I can't be cancelled as long as I pay my premiums. Maybe Obama did something good after all."

The problem with being a compulsive liar is that once people start to doubt one thing you say, they start looking to see if it is a pattern. And when they look, what do they see? They see a candidate with a really ugly business record and a string of tax evasion schemes a mile long. They see a man lying about the welfare-to-work program. They see a man lying about the Obama savings in Medicare. And then they look at the running mate. Ignoring the social issues, which are a huge factor for some people, we have a guy who won't answer the most basic questions about his own budget plan, such as when it would produce a balanced budget.

That's where we are today with 11 weeks to the election. I bet there are at least 5% of Romney's "committed" who are having serious misgivings. And maybe I am naive, but I don't see those same vulnerabilities in the base of Obama's "committeds". Obama has been pretty straight up. Anybody who has been committed to him doesn't have any new information that should change their thinking. I guess there could still be a September surprise, but I doubt that.

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rppper Aug 2012 OP
CaliforniaPeggy Aug 2012 #1
southernyankeebelle Aug 2012 #16
GoCubsGo Aug 2012 #2
progressivebydesign Aug 2012 #20
roguevalley Aug 2012 #32
GoCubsGo Aug 2012 #35
dotymed Aug 2012 #52
nightscanner59 Aug 2012 #55
Fawke Em Aug 2012 #61
xtraxritical Aug 2012 #40
Jake2413 Aug 2012 #59
WinstonSmith4740 Aug 2012 #46
FatIrishBastard Aug 2012 #47
mercuryblues Aug 2012 #48
mike dub Aug 2012 #53
Honeycombe8 Aug 2012 #3
NBachers Aug 2012 #4
ailsagirl Aug 2012 #5
gateley Aug 2012 #6
rppper Aug 2012 #44
BumRushDaShow Aug 2012 #7
daligirl519 Aug 2012 #9
xtraxritical Aug 2012 #39
liberal from boston Aug 2012 #8
indivisibleman Aug 2012 #10
goclark Aug 2012 #18
Pharaoh Aug 2012 #24
CaliforniaPeggy Aug 2012 #29
1monster Aug 2012 #25
Cracklin Charlie Aug 2012 #26
riverbendviewgal Aug 2012 #11
Ilsa Aug 2012 #12
LineReply Conventional wisdom is that all but 8% have their minds firmly made up
BlueStreak Aug 2012 #13
rocktivity Aug 2012 #33
BlueStreak Aug 2012 #38
rocktivity Sep 2012 #68
rocktivity Aug 2012 #14
CountAllVotes Aug 2012 #36
GigiMommy Aug 2012 #67
glowing Aug 2012 #15
rppper Aug 2012 #30
Canuckistanian Aug 2012 #17
Jamaal510 Aug 2012 #19
The Blue Flower Aug 2012 #21
Cracklin Charlie Aug 2012 #22
nenagh Aug 2012 #34
jamesatemple Aug 2012 #50
Kath1 Aug 2012 #23
skydive forever Aug 2012 #27
IrishEyes Aug 2012 #28
rppper Aug 2012 #31
RainDog Aug 2012 #37
SunSeeker Aug 2012 #41
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