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Sun Nov 4, 2012, 05:59 PM

Obama 347 Romney 191



With popular vote= O 53% to R 47%

This what I think will happen minimally. But, what I hope happens is a a vast sea of blue with even more popular votes.

48 replies, 5848 views

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Obama 347 Romney 191 (Original post)
whttevrr Nov 2012 OP
flamingdem Nov 2012 #1
MadBadger Nov 2012 #2
whttevrr Nov 2012 #3
MadBadger Nov 2012 #5
johnlucas Nov 2012 #16
MadBadger Nov 2012 #17
johnlucas Nov 2012 #24
MadBadger Nov 2012 #28
johnlucas Nov 2012 #32
tweeternik Nov 2012 #25
brooklynite Nov 2012 #4
DCBob Nov 2012 #6
brooklynite Nov 2012 #10
whttevrr Nov 2012 #11
freshwest Nov 2012 #7
johnlucas Nov 2012 #18
freshwest Nov 2012 #29
johnlucas Nov 2012 #33
world wide wally Nov 2012 #8
intheflow Nov 2012 #9
whttevrr Nov 2012 #15
freshwest Nov 2012 #31
mnhtnbb Nov 2012 #12
IrishSean723 Nov 2012 #13
craigmatic Nov 2012 #14
Andy Stanton Nov 2012 #19
lordcommander Nov 2012 #20
meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #21
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #23
meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #27
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #34
meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #37
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #39
meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #40
meadowlark5 Nov 2012 #42
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #43
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #22
whttevrr Nov 2012 #26
Ruby the Liberal Nov 2012 #30
Logical Nov 2012 #36
Logical Nov 2012 #35
joejoejoe Nov 2012 #38
BlueDemKev Nov 2012 #41
whttevrr Nov 2012 #44
BlueDemKev Nov 2012 #45
whttevrr Nov 2012 #46
Jenkins666 Nov 2012 #47
whttevrr Nov 2012 #48

Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:01 PM

1. me too, FL, VA, NC, NH, IA, CO and of course OH!

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:01 PM

2. Minimally?

He wont win any of those red states

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Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:05 PM

3. AZ could flip..

Maybe IN... and maybe Akin could give us MO.

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Response to whttevrr (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:06 PM

5. No chance in all three

Not this year

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Response to MadBadger (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:13 PM

16. That's what they said in 2008. See Arizona & understand the coming Obama Landslide

Arizona is my favorite to flip.
I look for Georgia as a long shot.
I have heard others also throw South Carolina in there too.

I like that 347 number but it's still too low for me.
The power of a 15% to 20% Popular Vote Obama lead makes that number too low.

ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

I'm looking for a number closer to 400 like say 385 or something.
Obama got 365 Electoral Votes last time around with his 7% Popular Vote lead.
John Lucas

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Response to johnlucas (Reply #16)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:15 PM

17. Sounds like you're a peddler of bullshit

Who have you heard saying South Carolina? Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?

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Response to MadBadger (Reply #17)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:29 PM

24. I love this! Who ever heard of North Carolina going Blue until it did?

Who in their right mind makes that kind of insane prediction?
Well a poster who replied to that Landslide thread I put up.
Name was rbrnmw.

I love the doubt. I just love it.

In that same thread I respond to a poster named onenote who had a similar sentiment about me calling for Georgia.
I then break down the Presidential voting history of North Carolina all the way back from 1928 to 2008 to show how Obama turning North Carolina his way was unprecedented.
Even Bill Clinton couldn't flip that state. Neither time.

Read it for yourself & tell me what you think.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251130631#post82
John Lucas

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Response to johnlucas (Reply #24)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:35 PM

28. McCain had a .4 lead in the polls going into NC in 08

Obama won by .3

It wasnt a shocking result. The polls showed that it would be an absolute tossup.

You're talking about a state like South Carolina, and for that matter Georgia. If the Obama team thought they had a chance, dont you think they would be spending any time at all there?

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Response to MadBadger (Reply #28)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:51 PM

32. But how did a state like NC that hadn't gone Blue since 1976 suddenly go Blue in 2008?

How did Obama pull off Iowa of all places?
How did Obama switch Ohio?
How did Obama get Indiana?
How did Obama pull New Mexico?

TURNOUT is what's gonna flip those states.
And look all over this forum for people posting videos & pics of people standing in lines literally miles long waiting patiently to vote.
Those people are mostly Obama voters.

Dewey once defeated Truman according to the polls, remember that.
And Carter would defeat Reagan according to those polls too.
I use those polls for toilet paper.

There will be major state-flipping surprises on Election Day just you wait & see.
John Lucas

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Response to MadBadger (Reply #17)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:32 PM

25. Ha ... agreed!

I live in South Carolina ... no way will a majority of these people be voting for the President. Not AZ either, at least not this year. Probably not NC as well; FL very close. BUT, also no way Obama will lose the election. Four more years! Just vote!!

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:06 PM

4. Wildly optimistic...

We'll win and do well, but getting FL, NC and VA is a real stretch.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:07 PM

6. VA is not a stretch.

FL and NC will be tough.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:10 PM

10. Didn't say it was...I said getting all three...

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:10 PM

11. NC and VA are not a stretch...

They are close and the GOTV is strong with this one.

Florida could definitely go blue. People are really upset about Republicans trying to suppress voting.

There will be a backlash to the Republican Malfeasance.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:08 PM

7. Where did this come from? I like the sound of that...

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Response to freshwest (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:15 PM

18. You know where...

You know where.

Hee hee hee...
John Lucas

P.S.: Still too low though.

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Response to johnlucas (Reply #18)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:35 PM

29. ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251130631

Hehehe! Gotta give 'em a teaser!

And I posted the link at the BOG (Barack Obama Group)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/11026204






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Response to freshwest (Reply #29)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:53 PM

33. Thank you freshwest.

WE GOT THE POWER!!

John Lucas

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:09 PM

8. Your map does have a nice pattern to it

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:09 PM

9. Source?

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Response to intheflow (Reply #9)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:12 PM

15. This what I think will happen.

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Response to whttevrr (Reply #15)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:40 PM

31. This is what I think will happen, too. Check the John Lucas thread above...

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:10 PM

12. I like--no--I LOVE your map!

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:10 PM

13. I try to be optimistic

but a sweep of every single swing state is something I have a hard time believing will happen. Florida and NC will be tough and Colorado isn't exactly a safe bet either(if the polls are to be trusted). I think Obama will win, but it'll be because of OH and VA.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:11 PM

14. I could see Obama at 303 or 332 but this seems like a stretch especially in NC

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:17 PM

19. This would be GREAT

Though I think NC and Florida are a real stretch.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:18 PM

20. Thats exactly what i have. nt

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:18 PM

21. I think the one state that might flip is Indiana

They said it is never polled because of laws and one was finally conducted for Mourdock and Donnelly. Donnelly is double digits ahead so maybe that might help Obama. He did win it in 2008 afterall.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #21)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:23 PM

23. Never polled because of what kind of laws?

State do-not-call? How did the polls get around the law for polling Donnelly/Mourdock?

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #23)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:33 PM

27. Rachel had it on her show the other night

No robocalls are allowed. So there can be no robocall polls unless a real live person asks first if the person will do an automated poll. And there was one other thing that I can't remember that prevents easy polling in Indiana like in other states. So this most recent poll is the first in months.

I tried to search online but couldn't find it. I know Rachel talked about it Thurs or Friday on her show. She said nothing about the state going for Obama, but that's just a thought I had since it hasn't been polled for presidential election at all and it went to Obama in 2008.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #27)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:21 PM

34. Now that is interesting.

Thanks for posting about it. I'll dig through the new tv.msnbc.com site and see if I can find the segment. I know from work that there are both federal and state do-not-call lists (implying that states can impose statewide restrictions specific to their residents in addition to the federal ones), but never looked into what that entails.

Appreciate that heads up!

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #34)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:30 PM

37. If you do find it, would you mind coming back and letting us know?

I thought it was interesting but was in the kitchen and couldn't hear really well. That's why I can't remember the second thing Rachel said regarding Indiana polling laws.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #37)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:13 PM

39. Nada. I scrolled through several pages of

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com (her link from tv.msnbc.com) and didn't see the clip. Her Benen blog is great, but I miss the old format.

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #39)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:20 PM

40. Thanks for looking

I might look around a bit more. But if Tuesday comes and Obama wins, then I guess I'm not really concerned about Indiana polling

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #39)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:32 PM

42. I found it!

It was on her website under weird state election rules.

It's what I said, there is a law in Indiana where not automated dialing isn't allowed. Either the reciever of the call needed to give permission in advance or a live person must call and get permission to be on the list for automated calls. So it's very expensive to conduct polls in the state of Indiana. The one that just was done on the senate race was all manual and live person.

Nationally, Indiana isn't polled because of this law.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #42)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:37 PM

43. Thank you!

I know in the grand scheme, this is a trivial issue, but I greatly appreciate having this knowledge/information.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:22 PM

22. I agree with all but NC.

Hope I am wrong! I'd much rather see your map.

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Response to Ruby the Liberal (Reply #22)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:32 PM

26. Check out the effort barbtries has put in.

NC going blue
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251210551
That is one person, and I just saw a ticker that said the Obama Campaign has contacted 40% of eligible voters. I think the GOTV will overcome the polls and pessimism of the Romney / Ryan Road to Ruin.

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Response to whttevrr (Reply #26)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 06:39 PM

30. Holy Mother of God.

I honestly thought NC was a goner this year. WOW!!!!

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Response to whttevrr (Reply #26)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:29 PM

36. Then that means all the polls are wrong which means we cannot use any of them. Like Ohio, etc.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:28 PM

35. If you really think we will win NC then you must think all the polls are wrong. Including.....

those showing up winning Ohio, etc.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:33 PM

38. VEEEEEERY

Ambitious! An Obama win, but cant see him winning North carolina!

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:23 PM

41. That's virtually the 2008 map

I think that's a bit too optimistic. I still think Rmoney will pull out a win in NC and FL. However, I believe Obama will win OH, WI, IA, NV, and NH. VA and CO are toss-ups. Barring an upset in PA, MI, or MN, Obama will have well over the 270 electoral votes he'll need to win a second term.

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Response to BlueDemKev (Reply #41)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:37 AM

44. I don't think you understand how betrayed many Republicans feel.

I was registered as a Republican for many years. I know others who are just as disgusted as I am by what has been done to the Republican Party. It was not founded on the principles it now espouses.

I do not believe The White Male Lie. More Republicans will vote for Obama than anyone thinks.

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Response to whttevrr (Reply #44)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:21 PM

45. I didn't know there were very many moderates left in the Republican Party

...and I've been wondering why the hell they haven't come over to the Democratic Party where they BELONG.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:02 AM

46. Would love to see O411 / R127




But whatever it ends up being... It will be an Obama win.

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Response to whttevrr (Original post)


Response to whttevrr (Original post)

Sat Nov 10, 2012, 06:47 PM

48. D'oh! So close...

But it looks like if Obama can pick up a few more votes in the final tally...

Romney might hit the magic percentage:

47%



From huff post:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/who-won-the-popular-vote-2012_n_2087038.html

As of this writing, Obama had a 58,720,700 (50.1%) to 56,145,950 (48.4%) lead on Mitt Romney for the popular vote.

(UPDATE: As of 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Obama has widened his popular vote lead. He now leads 60,193,076 or 50.4% to 57,468,587 or 48.1% with nearly all precincts reporting. Still no official word yet, however.)

(UPDATE (2): As of Noon on Friday, with nearly all votes in, Obama assuredly will win the popular vote, leading Romney by a count of 61,173,739 or 50.5% to 58,167,260 or 48.0%. At this point, a few final votes are being counted and then all that's left is for the results to be officially certified.)


48.4% to 48.1% to 48.0% to ?? I hope it goes down to 47% in the final tally.

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