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Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:08 PM

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf


Please go to page eleven.


If you "unskew that poll" to the more likely 90% -10% margin the president will enjoy among African Americans in that state the poll results would show the president winning by a percent or two instead of trailing by three.


If I was conducting a survey and discovered such counterintuitive results I would surely check my sample.

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Reply Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40% (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
Jennicut Oct 2012 #1
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2
fugop Oct 2012 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #7
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #9
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #11
titaniumsalute Oct 2012 #15
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #19
anneboleyn Oct 2012 #18
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #5
Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #8
BlancheSplanchnik Oct 2012 #10
DavidDvorkin Oct 2012 #12
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #13
TroyD Oct 2012 #14
ProSense Oct 2012 #17
mzmolly Oct 2012 #16
dsc Oct 2012 #20
TroyD Oct 2012 #21

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:12 PM

1. Really?

Sigh. I hate when all polling firms fudge their #'s. I like to look at every poll in order to decide where the race is going and I like to average them all together. I even look at Rasmussen though I know they robo poll and are R-leaning. This is so bogus and so blatant that it makes me more sad then angry. Doug Kaplan is an asshole.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:16 PM

2. He Reads This Board

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021425136

According to Gravis Marketing, Obama is winning Latinos in the state of Colorado by 2-1 and losing among African Americans 2-1.

Does that make sense?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:21 PM

3. None whatsoever

Some really weird stuff in the crosstabs. I hate how these flash-in-the-pan pollsters get picked up to drive the narrative. It's ridiculous. I am so disgusted with how our media reports polls as if they're all equal, all the same. Just as they compare, for example, one month's poll with a Dem-skewing sample to the next month with a complete switch to a GOP-leaning sample and then trumpet how the poll went from Dem to GOP.

Just. So. Sick. Of. All of them.

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Response to fugop (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:30 PM

6. What Is Odd Beside The African American Findings?

.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:30 PM

7. It might not be that they fudged their numbers ... just bad sample...

The math suggests blacks made up about 75 voters in this poll. That means 30 said they're voting Obama and 45 said Mitt Romney. With such a low margin, you're going to get funky math like that ... especially when you account for the fact A) margin of error B) maybe even people lying to the pollsters.

It's why you should never take one poll as gospel. If other polls next week, including PPP, show Colorado shifting to Romney, then we should be concerned. But yeah, right now, this poll is flawed.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:36 PM

9. I Like His Finding That An African American Coloradan Is Three Times As Likely To Be Jewish

Than His Fellow White Coloradan.

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Response to Drunken Irishman (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:49 PM

11. B) maybe even people lying to the pollsters.

You are on to something. It's an automated poll. Perhaps white Romney supporters are pretending to be black to make it appear Obama is doing poorly among blacks,ergo:


David MarcusBerkeley, Ca

"One of those "strong swing state polls for Romney" is in Colorado: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf. But looking at p. 11 of that poll, it shows Romney winning the black vote by 58-40. If the actual black vote were 80-20 in favor of Obama, and everything else in the Gravis poll were exactly the same, the results would change from a 3.49% margin in favor of Romney to a 1.07% margin in favor of Obama.

I've observed the same very counter-intuitive results for black voters in Gravis polls of FL, NC, and MI in the last month. Worthy of some 538 review and analysis? "

Wow. How messed up are Republicans if they are doing that.They are sick, sick, sick...

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 06:41 PM

15. It doesn't matter if it is automated or not

Even if a human was interviewing if the respondent says they are black they are logged as black. Just because someone may or may not "sound" black is not decided by the interviewer. Now there may be some validity that if a human was interviewing the respondents people would be less likely to lie for fear of getting caught.

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Response to titaniumsalute (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 08:05 PM

19. I Agree But A Person Would Be Less Likely To Lie About Their Race To A Live Interviewer

I have seen (R)asmussen's internals on another site. Even when Obama is doing well there is a gender gap but the other way. He leads among men and trails among women. I believe some yahoos just press the wrong button to mess with the robocaller's results.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 07:36 PM

18. That is ridiculous. Nate and the rest need to stop citing these "pollsters" who are clearly

manipulating results in such obvious ways -- just to drive a narrative and/or make it appear that there is more support for Romney (black voters 60% to 40% in favor of Romney, and these "very counter-intuitive results" are happening in multiple swing states?? That is ridiculous).

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:24 PM

4. Good find

I think we need to wait until some more credible pollsters get to work before we can conclude what is happening. So far we have complete crap, like Rasmussen, We Ask America, or whatever it is called, and now this.

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Response to Doctor Jack (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:29 PM

5. I Didn't Really Find It

A poster at 538 did.

I smell a rat..Talking about rats it seems indisputable Willard got a bounce. But Republicans pollsters are manipulating poll results to inflate the bounce and create a narrative.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:31 PM

8. Wouldn't put it past them

Win by any means necessary

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:45 PM

10. Romney Winning The African Vote In C0 -60%-40%









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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:21 PM

12. That's okay. There aren't a lot of Africans in Colorado.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:09 PM

13. My mom says there's a lot of black people in Africa.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 06:05 PM

14. We KNOW Gravis is untrustworthy

As is Rasmussen, We Ask America, Purple Strategies etc.

So what? What we think doesn't matter - it's what the public thinks and how this affects the narrative.

The point is that we had the lead in all these polls and the momentum, and Obama may have thrown that away in the debate.

Time to stop taking things for granted.

Now it's time to hit back at Romney by exposing him as a pathological liar as Ted Kennedy did in 1994, and by making sure the September Jobs Report becomes BIG NEWS and overshadows Romney's lies.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 07:27 PM

17. Fine. If

"We KNOW Gravis is untrustworthy"

...that's the case, why the hell are people, including Nate Silver, giving these polls credibility? Doesn't he at least owe an explanation in his commentary? At least offer a caveat. A bullshit poll that shows Romney winning the black vote 60 to 40 should be flagged.

Here's Nate:

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

The poll is utter bullshit. Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.

"Fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. You see, Republicans are complaining about the polls so every poll has to be given merit.

Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 07:04 PM

16. Oh good grief.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 02:39 AM

20. according to the census bureau blacks make up 4.3% of the Colorado population

and lets assume they are no more or less likely than anyone else to vote so they make up 4.3% of the electorate as well. He is losing 40 to 58 according to that sample among Colorado blacks. That translates to 1.72% to 2.49% or a -.77%. Assuming that he really wins 90 to 10. That would be 3.87% to 0.43% which is + 3.44 or a total difference of 4.21% in margin. Instead of leading by 3.5% as Romney is in this poll he should be losing by 0.71% which is not exactly a major difference given the MOE.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Oct 7, 2012, 03:27 AM

21. If you're going to cook a poll, at least make it credible

That's what I don't get.

Why would they do it this way?

Why not show a huge increase for Romney amongst some other demographic?

No way is Romney going to be winning over African American voters. I don't have a single AA friend that believes that.

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