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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:59 AM

5 signs that Mitt Romney can still win

This Republican isn't just whistling past the graveyard, ignoring unpleasant realities. The article has some serious analysis that any Democrats tending toward complacency should keep in mind: http://theweek.com/article/index/233477/5-signs-that-mitt-romney-can-still-win

Paraphrasing, so I can note all five without overexcerpting:

1. The pollsters' models of the electorate are based on 2008, but this year, black, Latino, and young voters won't turn out in the same numbers.

2. "In many swing states, Obama is polling under 50 percent, and I bet undecideds will go heavily for the challenger."

3. The economy is in bad shape, and if Romney keeps hammering that point, Americans won't re-elect the President.

4. Conservatives are more motivated. This is the most original of the five so I'll quote it in full:
Put simply, Romney "will win because conservatives know what is at stake and we know we can't afford to lose," says Karin McQuillan at American Thinker (link here). Republicans are more enthusiastic and more engaged this year, thanks largely to the Tea Party fervor that swept us into power in 2010. And the reason is clear: "When one side realizes they are fighting for their lives and their country, and the other side thinks Obama is a nice, middle-of-the-road guy handed a hard problem, who will win?" The Right side, of course.


5. A "September swoon" isn't fatal, and Romney has time for a comeback.

As many DUers know, the author could reasonably have added a sixth sign: Many people who tell the pollsters that they'll vote for Obama won't actually do so, despite their best efforts, because of right-wing voter suppression and possible outright fraud with electronic voting.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:01 PM

1. Very sobering. Too early to exhale. n/t

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Response to Raven (Reply #1)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:23 PM

5. I agree ..

too early to exhale; but nothing to panic over.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:14 PM

2. Let's look at this point by point.

1. Perhaps, yes. The 2010 model differed greatly from the 2008 model, so it's not an unreasonable assumption that young voters might not show up in the numbers they did, but Republican turnout is as ginned up as it'll ever be and Romney still trails even in likely voter models.

2. This is a crappy assumption. The "undecideds" at that point usually break for the guy they think is gonna win since people like that want to vote for the winner. Romney has given them NO reason to vote for him, and that little video of him urinating all over the 47% isn't going to help matters.

3. It's been nine months of Romney shooting himself in the foot and making idiot statements over and over and over. If he was half-competent, I'd worry about this strategy, but with a month to go it's going to be difficult to start crafting a new narrative.

4. No they're not. The base alone doesn't win elections, and they're actively scaring away the people they need to help them. This person is under the impression that the base makes up 51% of the voting population. It does not.

5. No, it's not fatal, but I've seen no evidence that Romney has any ability to stop making idiot comments, and if we get into October and Romney still trails in the swing states you're going to have a hard time convincing me that Obama won't win.

I'm not overconfident, but I'm not ready to go Chicken Little either, and this guy is still whistling past the graveyard.

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Response to Arkana (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:29 PM

10. Point 1 analysis of young voters fails

Why does it fail? They fail to consider that the young voters in 2008 are likely to have a higher rate of voting in this cycle. The same group of young voters are not the same as in 2008. They are moving out of the young voter category. A big difference is that a voter that starts voting when they are young tend to continue voting regularly.

What happens on the other end of the scale? They die off. I like to tell people in my county that Republicans die off faster. And they do. So the key is to get the young ones to understand Democratic beliefs and vote Democratic.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:20 PM

3. Romney is doing his damnedest to motivate Obama's base

And any progressive-leaning independents. If Mitt keeps it up, people will crawl over broken glass to make sure that douche bag gets nowhere near the White House.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:22 PM

4. Okay ...

I read it ...

1. The pollsters' models of the electorate are based on 2008, but this year, black, Latino, and young voters won't turn out in the same numbers.


That is wishful thinking ... The African-American electorate is fully energized, thanks to the gop voter suppression efforts ... If you want someone to do something; make it clear that you don't want them to do it.

The Hispanic electorate (with the exception of the Cuban electorate) is fully engaged, thanks to gop anti-immigration efforts.

Now the young? I don't know.

2. "In many swing states, Obama is polling under 50 percent, and I bet undecideds will go heavily for the challenger."


I suspect ... not after this week (the video). Wishful thinking.

3. The economy is in bad shape, and if Romney keeps hammering that point, Americans won't re-elect the President.


Again, wishful thinking. The polls have President Obama trending positive/even on the question of "who will do best with the economy?" and as stated above, the video will likely further impact those numbers.

4. Conservatives are more motivated. This is the most original of the five so I'll quote it in full:

Put simply, Romney "will win because conservatives know what is at stake and we know we can't afford to lose," says Karin McQuillan at American Thinker (link here). Republicans are more enthusiastic and more engaged this year, thanks largely to the Tea Party fervor that swept us into power in 2010. And the reason is clear: "When one side realizes they are fighting for their lives and their country, and the other side thinks Obama is a nice, middle-of-the-road guy handed a hard problem, who will win?" The Right side, of course.


The OP talks about the gop voters being energized and cites to "teaparty fervor." Apparently, the OP didn't run that claim by teaparty activist, Erick Erickson, who is taking romney to task for not embracing the teaparty and base conservatives ... I believe his words were: "(something to the effect) romney supporters are ABO (Anyone but Obama) voters who will (may) go to the polls and pull the lever for romney; but will not canvass, phonebank, or otherwise, work for a romney win."

The only ones in the gop that are "motivated" are the small percentage (23%) of "in the bag/hair on fire" republicans ... and an argument can be made that the establishment republicans are hoping for a top to bottom blow out in order to purge the crazy and allow them to re-form the party.

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #4)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 04:00 PM

13. Thank you!! And I'd like to add to the OP that there will never be an election like in 2008.

That was a change year, an incredibly salient, once-in-a-lifetime election. The Corporate Media is raising the bar unfairly high. We elected our first black president in 2008. A change election indeed.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:24 PM

6. Good Points

both rep and dems are worried about election fraud, we have been in communication with blackboxvoting, a watchdog org supervising elections, and this is a big deal here at VOTE.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:30 PM

7. These points need to be distributed to Democrats, to GOTV.

We need to stay motivated, not get lazy, and make sure people VOTE.

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Response to Avalux (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:44 PM

15. Agreed!!!! Get Out The Vote.....Get Out The Vote.......Get Out The Vote.......Get Out The Vote!!!!

Did I mention: "Get Out The Vote?"

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:32 PM

8. most pollsters are NOT using the 2008 model

if they were Obama's lead would be bigger.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 12:42 PM

9. Obama is the Lesser or Two Evils

I keep hearing this from Independents I know. I was one myself for decades so they don't just dismiss me. They will rant about Obama and the Democrats. Then they rant about Romney and Republicans. When I start debating them, they end up saying that I am right and they will hold their nose and vote for Obama.

They could change their minds, I suppose, but as one person said, Romney's list of negatives is longer than Obama's.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:36 PM

11. Yes, a candidate could certainly recover from a Sept. swoon...

Fortunately Obama isn't running against "a candidate", he's running against Mitt Romney.

Sure, GOTV, don't get complacent, but really Mitt isn't a guy who's capable of turning this around.

Agree with the lesser evil comment too, I know a lot of people who feel that way, even republicans.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:39 PM

12. Romney must win the debates

That is highly unlikely. I think Romney will have a harder time than Obama getting his voters to the polls. The neocons will show up to vote against Obama. The moderate Republicans and Conservative leaning Independents are less motivated because they don't like Romney.

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Response to TexasCPA (Reply #12)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 05:08 AM

17. Some commentators seem to think Romney could do well in the debates

I think even David Corn said as much on one of the t.v. shows this week.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:34 PM

14. Gotta campaign HARD, and Mittens ain't gonna win.

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Response to Jim Lane (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:57 PM

16. Go to any news articles comment site, and its the RW that is in the vast majority

making comments, hammering on Obama and the economy. E.g. news.yahoo.com .

Dems seem to like to huddle in their safe havens like DU, while the RW is energized enough to leave their safe havens and go out and post on politically mixed forums.

This worries me more than anything else. And don't tell me most of those hundreds or thousands of comments on each article are being paid for.

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