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Sun Dec 23, 2012, 03:58 PM

 

Reports and statistics for discussing the Right to Keep and Bear Arms for self-defense.

"First Reports Evaluating the Effectiveness of Strategies for Preventing Violence: Firearms Laws, Findings from the Task Force on Community Preventive Services" October 3, 2003, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Summary

During 2000--2002, the Task Force on Community Preventive Services (the Task Force), an independent nonfederal task force, conducted a systematic review of scientific evidence regarding the effectiveness of firearms laws in preventing violence, including violent crimes, suicide, and unintentional injury. The following laws were evaluated: bans on specified firearms or ammunition, restrictions on firearm acquisition, waiting periods for firearm acquisition, firearm registration and licensing of firearm owners, "shall issue" concealed weapon carry laws, child access prevention laws, zero tolerance laws for firearms in schools, and combinations of firearms laws. The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes. (Note that insufficient evidence to determine effectiveness should not be interpreted as evidence of ineffectiveness.) This report briefly describes how the reviews were conducted, summarizes the Task Force findings, and provides information regarding needs for future research.


"Firearms and Violence, A Critical Review" 16 December 04 by the National Research council of the National Academy of Sciences
MAJOR CONCLUSIONS

Empirical research on firearms and violence has resulted in important findings that can inform policy decisions. In particular, a wealth of descriptive information exists about the prevalence of firearm-related injuries and deaths, about firearms markets, and about the relationships between rates of gun ownership and violence. Research has found, for example, that higher rates of household firearms ownership are associated with higher rates of gun suicide, that illegal diversions from legitimate commerce are important sources of crime guns and guns used in suicide, that firearms are used defensively many times per day, and that some types of targeted police interventions may effectively lower gun crime and violence. This information is a vital starting point for any constructive dialogue about how to address the problem of firearms and violence.

While much has been learned, much remains to be done, and this report necessarily focuses on the important unknowns in this field of study. The committee found that answers to some of the most pressing questions cannot be addressed with existing data and research methods, however well designed. For example, despite a large body of research, the committee found no credible evidence that the passage of right-to-carry laws decreases or increases violent crime, and there is almost no empirical evidence that the more than 80 prevention programs focused on gun-related violence have had any effect on children’s behavior, knowledge, attitudes, or beliefs about firearms. The committee found that the data available on these questions are too weak to support unambiguous conclusions or strong policy statements.

Drawing causal inferences is always complicated and, in the behavioral and social sciences, fraught with uncertainty. Some of the problems that the committee identifies are common to all social science research. In the case of firearms research, however, the committee found that even in areas in which the data are potentially useful, the complex methodological problems inherent in unraveling causal relationships between firearms policy and violence have not been fully considered or adequately addressed.


"Gun Control Legislation" November 14, 2012 Congressional Research Service

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Reply Reports and statistics for discussing the Right to Keep and Bear Arms for self-defense. (Original post)
jody Dec 2012 OP
gejohnston Dec 2012 #1
discntnt_irny_srcsm Dec 2012 #2
jody Dec 2012 #7
intaglio Dec 2012 #3
jody Dec 2012 #4
intaglio Dec 2012 #5
jody Dec 2012 #6
intaglio Dec 2012 #8
jody Dec 2012 #9
Berserker Dec 2012 #13
jody Dec 2012 #14
russ1943 Dec 2012 #10
gejohnston Dec 2012 #11
russ1943 Dec 2012 #12
gejohnston Dec 2012 #15
jody Dec 2012 #16
russ1943 Dec 2012 #17
jody Dec 2012 #18
jimmy the one Jan 2013 #19
jody Jan 2013 #20

Response to jody (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 04:25 PM

1. watch this,

extremists on both sides will accuse you of being a propagandist for the other side.

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Response to jody (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 04:31 PM

2. Isn't there a saying...

...among legislators like, "If you can't do something meaningful, do something that gets you press."???

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Response to discntnt_irny_srcsm (Reply #2)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 06:11 PM

7. Interesting quote that the Republican managed Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence uses so well.

 

It's ironic that so many DUers worship at the altar of a Republican created and funded group with one unstated purpose "Disrupt and divide Democrats and the electorate so they won't notice as the corporatists who fund both major parties increase their control over We the People".


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Response to jody (Original post)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:27 PM

3. Why are you citing these reports?

One 10 years old and one issued in 2004. The CRS paper of this year to which you link outlines the current state of gun control legislation in the USA contains statistics that it admits are dubious and I can see no point to you including it in your OP.

From the passages that you have highlighted within your selections I assume that you wish to show that statistics cannot be trusted to guide legislation. Be aware that your failure to communicate your motive leaves readers only assumptions to guide them.

If this is your motive then it would be good to note that the Task Force segment calls for better statistics from further research and that the NRC segment actually states that:
Empirical research on firearms and violence has resulted in important findings that can inform policy decisions. In particular, a wealth of descriptive information exists about the prevalence of firearm-related injuries and deaths, about firearms markets, and about the relationships between rates of gun ownership and violence. Research has found, for example, that higher rates of household firearms ownership are associated with higher rates of gun suicide, that illegal diversions from legitimate commerce are important sources of crime guns and guns used in suicide, that firearms are used defensively many times per day, and that some types of targeted police interventions may effectively lower gun crime and violence. This information is a vital starting point for any constructive dialogue about how to address the problem of firearms and violence.
Which would imply other data has been collected supporting this interpretation.

I think what may be confusing you is that there is likely to be good research from other countries about these matters

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Response to intaglio (Reply #3)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:32 PM

4. If you have a more recent survey of research about firearms and crime published by a National

 

Blue-Ribbon committee, please add it to this thread.

If it refutes the two authorities I cited, please call that to our attention.

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Response to jody (Reply #4)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 05:58 PM

5. What are you saying has to be refuted?

You STILL have not stated what inference you gather from this.

Please actually read the passages you have quoted. The first ends:
(Note that insufficient evidence to determine effectiveness should not be interpreted as evidence of ineffectiveness.) This report briefly describes how the reviews were conducted, summarizes the Task Force findings, and provides information regarding needs for future research.


And the ending of the second:
the complex methodological problems inherent in unraveling causal relationships between firearms policy and violence have not been fully considered or adequately addressed.


Also, as stated earlier, the CRS also bemoans the lack of data even from official crime and mortality figures.

Perhaps you had best read this item from the Wall Street Journal Entitled Lack of Data Slows Studies of Gun Control and Crime

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Response to intaglio (Reply #5)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 06:01 PM

6. Apparently you haven't understood what I wrote and I don't believe that will change. Sorry I hoped

 

to have an objective exchange.

Goodbye

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Response to jody (Reply #6)

Sun Dec 23, 2012, 06:14 PM

8. You wrote nothing

You merely quoted and linked to two articles without comment and provided a link to a third.

You still have not made any statement of your position - do you actually have one?

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Response to jody (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 02:14 PM

9. Guns v Murder “Gun Control Legislation” by CRS (Nov 14, 2012) reports the following.

 

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32842.pdf (pages 8-9)

In 1994 the Estimated Firearms-Related Murder Rate per 100,000 of the Population was 6.6. NIJ reports 44 million people owned 192 million firearms in 1994.

In 2007 the Estimated Firearms-Related Murder Rate per 100,000 of the Population was 3.9 and had dropped to 3.2 in 2011. NIJ reports people owned 294 million firearms in 2007.

From 1994 to 2007, firearm number increased from 192 million to 294 million.

From 1994 to 2007, Firearms-Related Murder Rate decreased from 6.6 to 3.9.

Table 2 of the report shows Suicides and Accidents rates associated with firearms also declined as firearm numbers increased.


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Response to jody (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 10:21 PM

13. Thanks

 

For posting this and the link. This will be shot down as NRA talking points or whatever bullshit they can come up with. I also think there are far more firearms in this country than the estimated 294 million.

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Response to Berserker (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 10:48 PM

14. 294 million was 2007. There's probably about 310+ million in 24 Dec 2012. nt

 

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Response to jody (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

10. Task force said more research is necessary so..................

............................The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes. (Note that insufficient evidence to determine effectiveness should not be interpreted as evidence of ineffectiveness.)...........

Some gun enthusiasts have quoted this finding just as they are warned not to, as if firearms laws have been deemed to be ineffective.
Most importantly, in 1996, pro-gun members of Congress mounted an all-out effort to eliminate the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Why? Because the CDC was funding research into a variety of causes of violence and demonstrating the size and scope of firearm related death and injury. Whoa, the NRA can’t have that, so their minions in Congress cut their funding. They failed to defund the center, the House of Representatives removed $2.6 million from the CDC's budget—precisely the amount the agency had spent on firearm injury research the previous year. Language was also inserted into the centers’ appropriations bill that remains in place today: “None of the funds made available for injury prevention and control at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention may be used to advocate or promote gun control.” The prohibition is striking, firearms researchers say, because there are already regulations that bar the use of C.D.C. money for lobbying for or against legislation. No other field of inquiry is singled out in this way. When other agencies funded high-quality research, similar action was taken. In 2009, Branas et al published the results of a case-control study that examined whether carrying a gun increases or decreases the risk of firearm assault. In contrast to earlier research, this particular study was funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism. Two years later, Congress extended the restrictive language it had previously applied to the CDC to all Department of Health and Human Services agencies, including the National Institutes of Health.
In 2011, Florida's legislature passed and Governor Scott signed HB 155, which subjects the state's health care practitioners to possible sanctions, including loss of license, if they discuss or record information about firearm safety that a medical board later determines was not “relevant” or was “unnecessarily harassing.” IIRC that one failed in court.

N.R.A. Stymies Firearms Research, Scientists Say http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/26/us/26guns.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2012/12/gun_violence_research_nra_and_congress_blocked_gun_control_studies_at_cdc.html http://ontd-political.livejournal.com/10304721.html#ixzz2G1SMLPcH http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2011/01/nra-asks-wheres-evidence

It’s an example of how the NRA gets its way. Killing the messenger is one of many tactics they use.

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 09:39 PM

11. is it the place of CDC to do criminology research?

I mean, are criminologists doing research in controlling West Nile Virus?

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Response to gejohnston (Reply #11)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 10:03 PM

12. Death & injury research.

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #12)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 11:00 PM

15. given the amount of work by independent criminologists

from various countries, and even a few Joyce Foundation shills thrown in for good measure, I doubt the CDC would have come up with anything outstanding.

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 24, 2012, 11:00 PM

16. Research is about data and research on social issues is ALL ABOUT DATA. Many reports have been

 

published using available data among which is FBI's Uniform Crime Report.

DOJ has the authority to collect data on crime and support research about the causes of crime.

If anyone has new ideas about collecting new data to prove "guns cause crime", they should demand Attorney General Holder start collecting that data so we can finally satisfy the believers.

Obama was on the Joyce Foundation board and its the major fund source for the Violence Policy Center. I'm sure he can get millions from those with deep-pockets who want to ban handguns and all firearms.

Notice I didn't need to use CDC at all above because they aren't needed.

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Response to jody (Reply #16)

Tue Dec 25, 2012, 03:07 AM

17. All gun violence, deaths and injuries, aren't crimes.

u posted "Notice I didn't need to use CDC at all above because they aren't needed."

Your original link in your OP is a CDC report. The National Academies of Sciences, “Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review (2004)” you referenced in your OP, lists the CDC as one of the Selected Sources of Firearm Data it's footnoted & referenced numerous times. The Gun Control Legislation" November 14, 2012 Congressional Research Service report you also referenced uses CDC data. You may think you didn’t need CDC but even some of the information you’ve used was provided by them.
There’s a difference here in perspective that is worth mentioning. Data on crime which is what the FBI’s Uniform CRIME Report is, is not the only concern when the discussion is about gun violence. All gun violence, the deaths and injuries aren’t crimes. CDC’s WISQARS shows that there were 15,281 people shot “unintentionally” in 2010, few if any are charged or convicted of crimes that make the UCR.

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Response to russ1943 (Reply #17)

Tue Dec 25, 2012, 02:59 PM

18. "gun violence, deaths and injuries, aren't crimes" DOJ's Holder has authority to use FBI's UCR to

 

collect any data even remotely related to "Since these crime statistics are intended to assist law enforcement in identifying the crime problem, participants must record offense counts, not the findings of a court, coroner, or jury or the decision of a prosecutor." http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/additional-ucr-publications/ucr_handbook.pdf

The Administration cannot blame anyone other than itself because it already has authority to collect data.

With data, there are hundreds of PhDs ready to volunteer to cut and dice, twist and turn, that data to prove their creationist belief that guns are the cause of all crimes.

Gun Control Legislation” by CRS (Nov 14, 2012) reports the following.

- from 1994 to 2007, firearm number increased from 192 million to 294 million.

- from 1994 to 2007, Firearms-Related Murder Rate decreased from 6.6 to 3.9.

It will be interesting to see what data can be collected to support a hypothesis that more guns cause more crime.

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Response to jody (Original post)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 04:57 PM

19. Wrong Jody, when you see all the facts.

jody posted: From 1994 to 2007, firearm number increased from 192 million to 294 million.
From 1994 to 2007, Firearms-Related Murder Rate decreased from 6.6 to 3.9.


You'd better sit down, jody; you cherry pick years 94 to 07 for violent crime & murder rates once they started declining from ALL TIME HIGHS... but you fail to say anything about how those rates got so high. I'll show you how.
.. in the 1960s, the national murder rate was about what it is now, ~5.0, while in between then & now it rose to 10. (you used gunmurder rates, simply multiply total murder rate by 2/3 for close enough gun murder estimate).
The violent crime rate in 1964 was 190, today 2012 it's 386, doubled from 1964.

year .. popu ... violcr/rate.. propcr/rate..murdrate... guns
1964--191,141,000-- 190.6------ 2,197.5---- 4.9 ........ ~75million
1965--193,526,000-- 200.2------ 2,248.8---- 5.1
1993--257,908,000-- 746.8------ 4,737.7---- 9.5 ..~194mill
2011--311,591,917-- 386.3------ 2,908.7---- 4.7 .........~300mill
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

factoid I found: The 1968-78 period saw an 85 percent increase in available gun stock and a 52 percent increase in the UCR (fbi) crime index rate.

So the evidence refutes your implication that an increase in total firearms led to the decline in murder & violent crime rates. Your implied premise can't be, since total firearms increased about 150% from 64 to 94 with a concurrent doubling of violent crime & murder rates, while from 94 to 07 total firearms increased by ~50% while violent crime rates declined about 35%, & murder rates halved.
The increase in rates while guns increased dramatically offsets the subsequent decline and any point you were trying to make.
Stop believing in the 2nd Amendment MYTHOLOGY.
MORE GUNS MORE LIES.

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Response to jimmy the one (Reply #19)

Wed Jan 2, 2013, 05:15 PM

20. No, I used CRS "Gun Control Legislation" November 14, 2012 as my source. Please write them with your

 

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