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Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:30 AM

Homes Sell in Two Weeks With Low Supply for Spring Buyers

Source: Bloomberg

By Prashant Gopal - Feb 5, 2013

The U.S. housing market, entering its busiest season, is tipped so far in favor of sellers that almost a third of listings in areas from Washington, D.C., to Denver and Seattle are under contract in two weeks or less.

One home in Washington attracted 168 offers in December and sold for almost twice the asking price. About 70 people lined up last month for a lottery to select buyers for four available houses in a San Ramon, California, subdivision where, in August, bidders camped for weeks to secure purchases.

A plunge in U.S. home listings to a 12-year low is driving up prices and preventing transactions from returning to historically normal levels. Many potential sellers are holding off until values rise more, while investors are snatching up distressed properties before they reach the market. Builders, reporting their best orders in years, can’t increase production fast enough. As buyers seek to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates, the supply and demand imbalance threatens to further limit deals as the key spring selling season approaches.

“There is just no inventory for buyers,” said Bob Cilk, an agent with Re/Max Accord in Pleasanton, California, where only 27 single-family houses are available for sale, about a third of the normal level. “There are lots of losers in the marketplace now. When you have multiple offers, there are several losers and only one winner for each home.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-05/homes-sell-in-two-weeks-with-low-supply-for-spring-buyers.html

23 replies, 2713 views

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Arrow 23 replies Author Time Post
Reply Homes Sell in Two Weeks With Low Supply for Spring Buyers (Original post)
Purveyor Feb 2013 OP
Botany Feb 2013 #1
Purveyor Feb 2013 #4
Botany Feb 2013 #5
amandabeech Feb 2013 #18
s-cubed Feb 2013 #2
Purveyor Feb 2013 #3
thearchive Feb 2013 #6
PasadenaTrudy Feb 2013 #22
liberal N proud Feb 2013 #7
n2doc Feb 2013 #8
Purveyor Feb 2013 #10
n2doc Feb 2013 #11
snooper2 Feb 2013 #9
bucolic_frolic Feb 2013 #12
Le Taz Hot Feb 2013 #13
happyslug Feb 2013 #14
Ford_Prefect Feb 2013 #15
Purveyor Feb 2013 #16
Ford_Prefect Feb 2013 #17
Purveyor Feb 2013 #19
amandabeech Feb 2013 #21
Gormy Cuss Feb 2013 #20
PasadenaTrudy Feb 2013 #23

Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:38 AM

1. This is very good news ...

.... except for some areas where the economy is still depressed and home sales
are stagnate such as in areas where the jobs have left but overall this is good news
for the economy.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 12:02 PM

4. Despite the repukes best efforts, this economy is growing, albeit not as fast as I would like but

it is building a solid foundation.

Auto manufacturing is back and helping lift the housing industry. We get both of those producing decent jobs and the future looks good. They both feed and support each other.

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Response to Purveyor (Reply #4)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 12:07 PM

5. As a landscaper I can't tell you how important it is to have a solid housing market

Both new and older homes need "stuff" to done to them.

Although in some areas the housing market is still very depressed.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:46 PM

18. In some areas, the banks not foreclosing and reselling properties.

The banks are keeping them on the books at the prices they last sold for (2008?).

If the all the banks foreclose on their non-performing mortgage loans and then sell those properties, the prices will go down, and the banks will have to take losses on those loans. That negatively affects their balance sheets and the ability for them to make more loans.

It's not the case everywhere, but it is the case in many places that saw a real run up in prices before the crash.

I'm here in the DC area. Prices for homes are high, but there are many homes being bought in bulk by wealthy investors. Those homes are being rented out, not necessarily sold. They will be put on the market slowly to keep the prices up even in this market, where unemployment is about the lowest in the country for metropolitan areas.

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Response to s-cubed (Reply #2)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:58 AM

3. Fixed and thanks for the backup. eom

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 12:28 PM

6. This isn't good news for me

I'm looking to buy a house in San Diego and the "low end" of the market is completely gone.

Houses in "not so great" areas like Encanto and Spring Valley are listing for 20% more than they did 2 months ago. And you may not want to live in those areas, at least base on the CrimeMapping.Com map of the areas.

A 20% rise in two months (on the low end) doesn't seem like good economics to me - seems like a bubble, or at least a frenzy.

A house came on the market yesterday in an okay area and my agent has been told that so many offers have come in without seeing the house that it'll be sold as-is and they're taking offers for one week only.

I'll be watching it, but I think this $300,000 house will sell for significantly more than that price.

It won't get back to the $425,000 it sold for in 2006, but that price was just insane.

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Response to thearchive (Reply #6)

Wed Feb 6, 2013, 11:10 AM

22. The bubble is bubbling...

at least here in SoCal. Check out Dr. Housing Bubble's blog for lots of info.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 12:39 PM

7. Excellent news as I may be putting mine on the market soon

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 01:17 PM

8. Not here in Savannah GA

Houses still sitting on the market for years.

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Response to n2doc (Reply #8)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 02:41 PM

10. Well that's odd, look at this: Strong 2012 Finish For Home Sales (source savannahnow.com)

Posted: January 10, 2013 - 7:33pm | Updated: January 11, 2013 - 12:01am

By Adam Van Brimmer
The local home sales market continued to breathe fire as the year of the dragon neared a close.

Sales finalized on 372 single-family homes, townhouses and condominiums in December in the Savannah area. The volume rivaled December 2011’s 376 sales and closed out a year that saw a 9 percent jump in sales versus 2011 and a 20 percent gain compared to 2010, when the local market hit bottom.

Inventory, or the number of homes listed for sale, hit new lows, another positive sign for the market. There were 2,000 fewer houses for sale on New Year’s Eve than at the end of 2010.

“And with the fiscal cliff issue resolved I think that will free up some people to get out there shopping again and start 2013 off right,” said Donna Davis, president of the Savannah Area Board of Realtors. “I expect to see increases in showings and activity in what are usually our slowest months.”

MORE...

http://savannahnow.com/exchange/2013-01-10/strong-2012-finish-home-sales#.URFfIh1GAwo

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Response to Purveyor (Reply #10)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 02:46 PM

11. Still thousands of houses for sale, a 10 month supply at last year's rates

And the price still is dropping. more new houses coming on than sales. The inventory drop is due to people giving up and pulling their houses off the market, or foreclosures.

Month Inventory New Sales Pending Price

Dec. 2012 3,139 380 372 163 $171,651

Nov. 2012 3,272 481 383 220 $209,104

Oct. 2012 3,424 710 388 242 $188,796

Sept. 2012 3,298 509 333 242 $188,600

Aug. 2012 3,477 638 468 223 $191,063

July 2012 3,460 610 444 278 $221,061

June 2012 3,630 649 471 283 $198,998

May 2012 3,584 639 397 331 $169,125

April 2012 3,694 648 363 275 $198,823

March 2012 3,748 690 385 298 $172,215

Feb. 2012 3,738 571 259 229 $157,906

Jan. 2012 3,754 687 246 238 $192,020

Dec. 2011 3,829 424 376 184 $184,712

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 02:25 PM

9. Good, get the floor laid in the bedroom and one more bathroom to gut and re-do and

time to go on the Market to upgrade!

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 02:50 PM

12. I have a very difficult time believing this article

David Stockman was quoted the other day that this is Housing Bubble 2.0.

There are still said to be millions of houses in foreclosure, and I searched
a foreclosure site earlier this week and there were real bargains.

Of course the Fed keeps buying mortgages or bonds at $85 billion a month
to keep the banks plied with cash, and those banks are going to find a way
to lend if they can so they can make money.

Sounds to me like the new buyers are over exuberant and paying more than
any house is worth, which is simply land, labor, materials.

The profits go to builders, homeowners, and banks earn the interest on the
mortgage.

Nothing's changed from my point of view.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 03:00 PM

13. I read somewhere

that people are waiting to sell because market prices continue to be at rock bottom and they know if they wait awhile, they'll be able to get a better price. Hopefully, that scenario will improve once the market corrects itself and home prices are back up somewhere near normal.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 03:00 PM

14. Give that most people do NOT start to look to March, this is much ado about nothing

The single largest group of people looking for a new home are families with Children. Given the they have Children, they do NOT want to move in the middle of the School year, they want to move during the Summer (and this is the #1 reason why year around school has NOT occurred. Since 1900, it is during summer Children change schools, thus in the fall they get a review with their new school mates and everyone is brought up to where they were at the end of the previous year, including those new students who MISSED what the rest of the Children learned).

Thus most people do NOT look for a new place to move to till March, they look in April and May (and while they is an increase in purchasing of homes in March and April the real jump in sales occurs in May and then June). Some families wait till August and September, but then it drops sales drop like a rock.

My point a "two week" turnover in January means NOTHING. We are looking at people who need a home TODAY and thus willing to pay TODAY. Most such people do NOT have Children and thus they have no need to wait. Worse, SELLERS know when BUYERS buy and that is May through September, NOT October through March and thus do NOT put they homes up for sales till March or April (And given most homes are subject to Six months exclusive sale contracts, most go from April 1 to October 1.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 06:39 PM

15. Does anyone recall a recent comment about institutional property purchases skewing the market.

The story was that banks and investment outfits were buying up housing for a song in certain areas and trying to drive up the prices by controlling the available properties. The same document speculated that they were in effect generating another bubble.

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Response to Ford_Prefect (Reply #15)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 06:51 PM

16. Does anyone recall the last time the 'glass half empty' crowd ever welcomed a positive economic

report? I can't.

After months of positive economic reports if it isn't according to 'them', a statistical anomaly or biased report or even better yet 'cooked books', then it is nothing at all.

Perhaps to 'them', had Rmoney been elected...they could find solace, indeed. Perhaps.

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Response to Purveyor (Reply #16)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:35 PM

17. One aspect of the report discussed how banks and some investment firms were buying large groups

of distressed mortgage family homes to convert into family rentals leading to a permanent class of renters. One side effect was to reduce the number of houses for sale to individuals driving up the price for available and new built homes alike.

The author saw this as a situation recreating a kind of serfdom where families could not find space to live except in rental properties owned by investment houses or syndicates.

I don't remember who wrote it but it was in the last 6 months and it was serious economic journalism.

I am glad that anyone benefits from an uptick in building. Many of my neighbors are in the trades as I once was. However some of the effect we are seeing may not be as rosy as that report may lead you to believe. It may also be a very localized effect.

If you need to whine about something Purveyor you might consider the enormous number of families left out in the cold literally and economically. Those who were forced out by the mighty banksters and now cannot qualify for a loan or make a down payment because their homes were stolen from them or they lost their jobs. THAT is not half empty DUDE. THAT is a very painful reality. They have a very long way to go, if ever, to arrive at some semblance of economic stability. At the moment they are STILL out in the cold.

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Response to Ford_Prefect (Reply #17)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:49 PM

19. I'm sorry that everyone has not been made whole in this economy overnight and I do respect

your right to continue to piss on every positive economic report that comes to light.

I will continue to post them, you can continue to piss on them.

Oh look! Here is one that you might want to 'cock your leg up to' and let loose. Guess you missed it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014391311

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Response to Purveyor (Reply #16)

Wed Feb 6, 2013, 12:04 AM

21. Yes, I'm one of the 'glass half empty crowd.'

As I posted above, in many markets, the banks are either not foreclosing on non-performing loans. In other markets, they are renting out foreclosed properties and not selling them. In either case, the lack of properties on the market pumps up the value of mortgages and mortgage backed securities on the books of the banks.

Even the Federal Reserve has been buying MBS like crazy from banks. It has been reported that the Fed is buying at close to 100% on the dollar and the banks are selling, knowing fully well that many of the MBS are worth much less.

Purveyor, the U-3 unemployment statistics that the media hangs on may very well be not a good representation of the unemployment and underemployment figures. The U-6 unemployment number (I know that you can look it up tomorrow) has barely budged and it takes a more generous, and most say more realistic, count of the unemployed. It includes people that have given up looking for work, and some say that it, too, is unrealistic.

Look at the percentage of the work force actually employed. Look at the number of people applying for disability. Look at Paul Solmon's numbers over the at the PBS website (I find him to be the best). You can even look at Shadowstats, which even I think is overly pessimistic.

None of those sites even pretend to account for drops in compensation for the middle class.

I have strong contacts in the Midwest. Even my friends in Chicago, which has always been an employment hub due to its great diversity of sectors of employment, are in trouble. They're very wary. Don't even ask about my relatives in Michigan, or about the problems my cousins have in Atlanta.

The employment picture is very, very troubling if you look at the whole country. If you can't see it, you and yours are extremely fortunate.

When people do not see a positive future in employment for themselves, their family (including those trying to get into the workforce) and the friends, they don't buy housing. That is a smart decision.

Obama has done many good things, but even Rahm Emanuel, now the mayor of the above-described Chicago, told him that he had to give more attention to jobs, and he ignored Rahm. Now, I don't like Rahm for many reasons, but he was right.

I hope that you and yours will not be adversely affected, but the employment market is not what it was in 2008. Until it is, there will not be 2008 prices.

Remember, recessions caused by financial excess take many years to resolve. We are only five years into it.

Those of us who are a little dysthymic are usually right.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Tue Feb 5, 2013, 11:51 PM

20. Camping to buy a house in the bland suburbia of San Ramon...

is surely a sign of the apocalypse.

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