Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:32 AM
mahatmakanejeeves (7,437 posts)
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep
Source: ADP Payroll Services
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Report
Private-sector employment increased by 118,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted basis. (The estimated gain from September to October was revised down slightly from the initial estimate of 158,000, to 157,000).
Small businesses (1-49 employees) +19,000
Medium businesses (50-499 employees) +33,000
Large businesses (500 or more employees) +66,000
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Roseland, N.J. - December 5, 2012 - Private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The October 2012 report, whihc reported gains of 158,000, was revised down by 1,000 to 157,000 jobs.
Service-providing jobs increased by 114,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, trade/transportation/utilities services added 16,000 jobs and financial activities added 13,000 jobs in November.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, &amp;quot;Superstorm Sandy wreaked havoc on the job market in November, slicing an estimated 86,000 jobs from payrolls. The manufacturing, retailing, leisure and hospitality, and temporary help industries were hit particularly hard by the storm. Abstracting from the storm, the job market turned in a good performance during the month. This is especially impressive given the uncertainty created by the Presidential election and the fast-approacing fiscal cliff. Businesses appear to be holding firm on their hiring and firing decisions.&amp;quot;
Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/
Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.
What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. For perspective, let’s look at some earlier numbers.
The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.
Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head.
By Geoffrey Rogow
ADP, for employment in October:
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in September:
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012
ADP, for employment in September:
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in August:
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)
An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, &amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;disappointing.&amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:
August 2012 Report
ADP, for employment in August:
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012
BLS, for employment in July:
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)
ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.
The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
BLS, for employment in June:
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.
Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;#8206;
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May'’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;U-6 Number.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; That can be found in Table A15. It is &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.
Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12
ADP, for employment in June:
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)
BLS, for employment in May:
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)
ADP, for employment in May:
May change in employment +133,000
BLS, for employment in April:
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:
There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom
ADP &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp; TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite
There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.
Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man
One more thing:
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™
Well, enough of that. On with the show.
Monthly Employment Reports
The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.
A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot; Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
From the February 10, 2011, &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;DOL Newsletter&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;:
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U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep (Original post)
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Wed Dec 5, 2012, 08:59 AM
coalition_unwilling (14,180 posts)
1. Ain't capitalism grand? See accompanying story sourcing the BLS about
the decline in Q3 2012 'labor costs':
To me it adds up to an economy in full-on 'dead cat bounce' mode. The 118,000 jobs added in the ADP survey fell about 5% shy of the consensus economist forecast of +125,000.
Original BLS story here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm