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Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:32 PM

The GOP polling debacle

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by pinto (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Politico.com

The reason: Across the party’s campaigns, committees and super PACs, internal polling gave an overly optimistic read on the electorate. The Romney campaign entered the last week of the election convinced that Colorado, Florida and Virginia were all but won, that the race in Ohio was neck and neck and that the Republican nominee had a legitimate shot in Pennsylvania.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee consistently had a more upbeat assessment of races in North Dakota and Montana, among others, than their Democratic counterparts. One GOP poll even showed Indiana Senate candidate Richard Mourdock holding even with his opponent, even as public polls showed the embattled Republican hemorrhaging support. A Republican poll taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research showed Pennsylvania Senate candidate Tom Smith leading Democratic Sen. Bob Casey by 2 points a few weeks before the election; Casey won by 9 points.




Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83672.html



Ba ha ha ha!

16 replies, 2906 views

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:45 PM

1. Counterproductive

By fooling themselves into thinking they had the election in the bag, Republicans may have decided that since they were going to win anyway some of them didn't need to go "dirty" themselves by voting for a Mormon. It could very well have been counterproductive to have been blowing all that smoke up their own collective a$$es.

Democrats, OTOH were scared into voting in overwhelming numbers due to the obvious attempts at voter suppression. We voted because we know the republicans have "nudged" election results in the past and appeared to be so again in openly obvious fashion.

I'm never going to forget that video where a guy clearly selects Obama on the touch screen voting machine and it kept showing as a vote for Romney. That all by itself should be enough to get every Democrat and Liberal to the polls every election.

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Response to montex (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:55 PM

10. Standing in line

I also think that's why folks in Florida were willing to stand in line for hours and hours. You can't talk about ways to keep people from voting and expect a lot of push back.

You also can't call half of the electorate moochers and then expect them to vote for you. You can't tell the female population that all they should care about is jobs and the reactionary social issues and total insensitivity to women's issues don't matter.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:53 PM

2. ROFL!

Oh that's SO funny.

But, we need to encourage the Pukes and Baggers, to keep on, keep'n on, doing the...EXACT...same stuff!

Please! Baggers! Keep spewing the hate! Please! And keep on with all those Puke siding polling companies!!!!

Please, Please, PLEASE!

2014...Dems Take Back the House!

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 01:59 PM

3. Nerds vs GOP

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:00 PM

4. The very best polling money can buy

I think voters were so pissed at voter suppression that a
significant number of us told the pollsters exactly the opposite
of how we intended to vote.

And did those early voting efforts carry the day! An early vote can't
be swayed.

The GOP Fear factor came home to roost, too. We were so scared
of them we got every last neighbor, friend, relative to pay attention
to this one. Vouchercare and Millionaire tax cuts ain't popular.

Into this mix stepped Obama for America, the ground game that we've
been hearing about since 1988 finally roadworthy.

The GOP are totally unaware that you can't lead public opinion when it
won't follow. To them, everything is a manageable corporate PR case
study.


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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:12 PM

5. "significant number"? Nope.

I think voters were so pissed at voter suppression that a
significant number of us told the pollsters exactly the opposite
of how we intended to vote.


If that were the reason then the Democratic polls would have suffered the same way. They did not.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:47 PM

9. My state was not in their possibility but

I did get a call from a pollster that ended the call immediately when I stated my preference for The President. I think they skewed their own polls, they lied to themselves.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:14 PM

6. I Think They Assumed That Voter Suppression Caused Polling To Be Inaccurate

In other words, polling assumes that its accurate because people actually vote.

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Response to TomCADem (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:17 PM

7. My take is (1) lack of basics like testing hypotheses and (2) a complete

lack of insight regarding people of color.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 02:40 PM

8. Good Read Too Bad Ras and Gallup are Not Called Out Though n/t

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:03 PM

11. I

 

think the Democrats just did a good job of getting out their messages. I disagree with the Polls of likely voters. I think minorities believe in their issues just as much as white voters. They have been winning so long because they are in the majority, but that has changed.

I do not believe the conservative right was ever the majority in this country when you include all ethnic groups instead of one that use to have an overwhelming majority in this country. I think the last two elections probably have emboldened, what was a minority to vote more often now, because now they see their votes count. The key for the Democratic party now is to follow through on those promises. The first test is this fiscal cliff. President Obama needs to carry through on his promises. He need to keep his promise on making the top percent pay their fair share or he will lose capital. He also needs to follow through on his promise to Hispanics about immigration immediately. He needs to use the Whitehouse as a Bully Pulpit like the Tea party people galvanize their base.

The problem with the Republicans is President Obama never got all his Policies through in order to see what their full effect would have been. He is the one won a national election. It wasn't Boehner nor McConnell. They and the media have this notion, Boehner and McConnell have some equal mandate as the President. The only mandate they have is to a small group of people within their Districts. It is simple. If the country gave them a mandate, then Romney would have won. The exact Policies Boehner and McConnell are trying to get the President to compromise on, are exactly what Romney was pushing in the Election. As far as I'm concerned, that is a nonstarter. I rather go off this imaginary cliff and get rid of the Bush Tax cuts period. The loopholes Boehner is talking about is a nonstarter period. The Republicans and media pundits still think we are dumb. We are getting played. President Obama has the upper hand, give them the ax.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:04 PM

12. Did The GOP Put Too Much Stock In Disenfranchisment?

They didn't expect that people would actually stand in line for 6-7 hours to vote. Plus, the efforts to force minorities into casting provisional ballots was quite successful. In Arizona they culled voters like cattle, sending Hispanics to the provisional ballot line then blaming them for not coming prepared -- excuse me but they came prepared to vote, not to be herded into a line where their vote wouldn't count. It's looking like a court battle looms in Arizona with several races hanging in the balance over the sheer size of the problem. Arizona is saying that it will take another week for them to finish counting ballots. Gov. Brewer has made Arizona the laughing stock of the nation and another brain freeze won't fix it.

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #12)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:03 PM

14. Yes I am convinced of it. I think one reason the Goops so favor the "war on drugs" is that it's a

 

war on the right to vote. With so many people plea bargaining and accepting a felony conviction, they are giving up their voting rights.

I think after a sentence is served, a person should be able to vote and hold a driver's permit.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 03:14 PM

13. GOP Polling Assumed Voter Suppression and Election Fraud Would be 100% Successful

Their sampling assumed that a huge percentage of minority voters would be prevented from voting.
They also assumed they would be able to steal millions of votes.

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:25 PM

15. What is "internal polling"?

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Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 04:33 PM

16. Hi geek tragedy. Great political analysis article, but it doesn't fit LBN guidelines. Locking.

Encourage a re-post in Politics 2012, Good Reads or GD. Thanks.

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