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Sat Oct 20, 2012, 09:48 AM

Obama leads by 2 in Virginia

Source: Public Policy Polling

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama continuing to hold onto a lead in the state at 49% to 47% for Mitt Romney. PPP has conducted three Virginia polls since the first Presidential debate and has found Obama with a 1-3 point advantage on each of them.

-snip-

-By a 53/45 margin voters trust Obama more than Romney to stand up for the middle class. And by a 50/43 spread they trust Obama more to make sure that the wealthiest American pay their fair share of taxes.

-Obama has a 51/47 lead with seniors, which may be driven in part by the fact that 51% of them trust Obama more to protect Medicare, compared to 46% of voters who pick Romney on that question.

-Obama’s leading 54/42 with women, 91/7 with African Americans, and 54/38 with voters under 30. Romney’s ahead 53/43 with men and 59/38 with white voters. The candidates are basically tied among independents with 45% going for Romney and 44% for Obama.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-2-in-virginia.html



Complete poll results here:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/VirginiaPollingMemo.pdf

This was a poll of 500 likely voters on October 18th and 19th.

28 replies, 4223 views

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Arrow 28 replies Author Time Post
Reply Obama leads by 2 in Virginia (Original post)
highplainsdem Oct 2012 OP
sulphurdunn Oct 2012 #1
magical thyme Oct 2012 #4
Jennicut Oct 2012 #9
Lex Oct 2012 #12
Jennicut Oct 2012 #17
Honeycombe8 Oct 2012 #16
magical thyme Oct 2012 #20
RBInMaine Oct 2012 #23
sulphurdunn Oct 2012 #24
Andy Stanton Oct 2012 #2
2theleft Oct 2012 #3
BootinUp Oct 2012 #5
forestpath Oct 2012 #6
DavidL Oct 2012 #7
spooky3 Oct 2012 #13
DavidL Oct 2012 #15
DCBob Oct 2012 #8
byeya Oct 2012 #10
spooky3 Oct 2012 #14
carolinayellowdog Oct 2012 #28
obxhead Oct 2012 #11
Sunlei Oct 2012 #18
TahitiNut Oct 2012 #19
LisaL Oct 2012 #21
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #22
DarthDem Oct 2012 #25
Jivenwail Oct 2012 #26
mylegsareswollen Oct 2012 #27

Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:06 AM

1. Any swing state

in which Obama leads by less than 6 points in the polls that has a Republican governor can be flipped by the voting machines.

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Response to sulphurdunn (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:38 AM

4. Virginia was the state that had voter registration forms being thrown out

I'd be more concerned about that. PPP tends to lean right, so if they show a small lead for the President, he probably has a larger one.

In Virginia, I'd be more concerned about people showing up to vote and learning they didn't get registered. So they need to be encouraged and helped to check on their registration status if they just signed up.

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Response to magical thyme (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:53 AM

9. PPP is a Dem pollster.

It does not lean right.
It does not always have perfect results for Dems.

I do think this poll is good news for Dems though.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:31 AM

12. With regards to PPP, please check this thread

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Response to Lex (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:54 AM

17. They were good during 2008 for the swing state polling.

Not surprised at all. Sometimes they have polls that are not done well (like McCaskill down by 10 early on) but most of the time they are pretty accurate. I think their Iowa poll was hurt by a plus 4 Repub voter ID. The registration in that state favors Dems in a slight edge. With robo polling you may get more conservatives answering then not.
I don't get the dislike of PPP lately here.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:54 AM

16. True. I like to use averages of the main polls. They are tied today in VA. Which is good news.

Romney had been ahead a couple of points.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 01:00 PM

20. In 2008 Nate Silver ranked them as having a rightward bias....this year

early on he rated them as slightly leftward but now says they've evened out.

But check this thread out for one DUer's 2008 results in swing states; they underrated Obama's vote in 4 out of 6 states.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251105016

Battle-ground State-Obama 2008 Margin of Victory/PPP-Final Obama poll margin just prior to 2008 election


Florida-Obama +2.8/PPP-Obama +2............................. Obama -0.8

Ohio-Obama+4.6/PPP-Obama +2.................................. Obama -2.6

Virginia-Obama+6.3/PPP-Obama+6................................. Obama -0.3

Colorado-Obama+9.0/PPP-Obama+10...............................Obama +1

North Carolina-Obama+0.3/PPP-Obama+1............................. Obama +0.7

Nevada-Obama+12.5/PPP-Obama+4...................................... Obama -7.5

And Nevada should actually read Obama -8.5!

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Response to sulphurdunn (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 01:16 PM

23. Must we have this Debbie Downer paranoia ad nauseum?

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Response to RBInMaine (Reply #23)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 01:47 PM

24. Wake up!

You are exactly the kind of credulous, Pollyanna voter rigged elections depend upon.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:13 AM

2. Bye Bye Romney "surge"

Virginia is a "must win" state for Romney (though not for Obama) and he was ahead before last week's debate. But no more. If Obama does well in Monday's debate, and I'm sure he will, Romney is toast.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:38 AM

3. In VA

And this makes me SO happy!

More O signs popping up in my neighborhood...

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:39 AM

5. Awesome!

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:40 AM

6. Thank you! As a VA resident, this makes me so happy!!!!

 

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:48 AM

7. Obama premiered his "Romneisa" in VA yesterday

 

A critical place to do that. Women DO vote, and hopefully most people under 30 will get out in VA, too!

Without all those people voting, there's no chance of winning in VA.

Remember also, that PPP is a robocalling pollster. They cannot call cell phones.

Respondents are interviewed through an automated telephone survey with the exception of those in Indiana and North Dakota, who are contacted via live telephone interviews because of restrictions on automated telephone calls in those states.

Typically, poll respondents represent a greater proportion of whites, older people, and women than found in the American public as a whole. Because of this, PPP weights its polls for race, age, and gender to ensure its surveys properly represent the population. (Note: PPP does not weight for party identification.) Based on a combination of census numbers, voter participation in past elections, and poll response, PPP develops target ranges for the share of poll respondents that should fall into each of these categories.


http://www.dailykos.com/special/Methodology

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Response to DavidL (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:32 AM

13. And, it is important for him to fire up young people--he was on the GMU campus. I would like to see

him visit ALL of the campuses, esp. U of VA and U. of Richmond as well as those in Tidewater. Students get excited when they see him in person. These campuses are not far from the White House, so from a time management perspective, it's well worth it, IMHO. These visits could provide the difference between students "forgetting" to vote versus giving him just enough votes to win VA.

If they consistently voted in proportion to their share of the population, I'm sure the campaign would do this, but older people are more reliable about turning out.

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:47 AM

15. The fact that the older people favored Obama is encouraging!

 

In the PPP poll, if there's an Obama lead among older people, that helps a lot, too.

Perhaps Obama can visit a few colleges and a few senior centers, or other venues where seniors and 50+ aged people show up, too.

Colleges are very organized for Obama in most states, with lots of reminders and ways to get to the polls, etc. It's urban seniors, minorities, and the poor who need the most help in getting to the polls. I'm sure the Obama folks will double their efforts to get seniors out, if encouraging poll results like this continue for seniors in VA or other states.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 10:52 AM

8. If VA goes blue again.. game over.

Obama wins easily.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:14 AM

10. Maybe Kaine's coattails can help the President

 

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Response to byeya (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:34 AM

14. the polls show Kaine's race is too close for comfort also

Rove and friends have poured a lot of money into advertising in NoVA. I find it very interesting that Allen is almost never shown in these ads. He is such an idiot (and a bigot) that at least the Rs recognize he turns off a lot of people. Rs simply want a compliant puppet in that role, and they have one in Allen. But it is appalling to me that any Virginian with an IQ above 5 supports him.

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Response to byeya (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 03:46 PM

28. Kaine's coattails, or Allen's Klan robes?

I'm a VA voter on the NC line and see a recent increase in Obama yard signs all over. In Virginia the name of Kaine is very prominent on the signs. VA economy is much better off than in NC which ought to push middle class voters towards Obama. Praying NC isn't a lost cause, still cheerful about VA. I do think some VA Republicans are ashamed of Allen and will be more likely to vote for Obama because of Kaine.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 11:29 AM

11. VA has a lot of Obama/Kaine signs out.

I've see a LOT of Powell signs out on lawns that I know had McCain/Cantor signs out front 4 years ago.

This state is turning bluer every week. Being a worry wart about it won't help.*

Volunteer to phone bank to help get out the vote here. I'm not sure of the details for Obama or Kaine, but I can put you in touch with the Powell campaign to do phone banking from ANYWHERE in the US to help his campaign toss out Cantor. PM me for any details.


*I'm not saying highplainsdem is being a worry wart I knwo the posts will come with to the thread with all kinds of doom and gloom though.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 12:08 PM

18. If Va. wants to save their mountians,state parks and their health- they should go 100% Obama

Used to live in Roanoke Va. Love the views from the Blue Ridge Parkway.

If Romney takes away the coal regulations and hands over parklands to an unregulated industry..there will be no more mountians, no more clean air and Va. will be back in the days of cheap mine labor and black lung disease.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 12:36 PM

19. The polls are going berserk this cycle.

We're either seeing a corruption of the "polling process" or we're seeing the demise of the landline-based approach to polling much as we saw the demise of the door-to-door approach a few generations ago. (Strangely, the claimed unreliability of exit polling would seem to argue for the former rather than the latter due to congruent motivations.)

It's pitiful that the "observation bias" introduced by polling is as significant as it is, indicating a failure of rational sovereignty in a democracy. It sure doesn't give one a great deal of confidence in the wisdom of the "comman man" (or woman).



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Response to TahitiNut (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 01:05 PM

21. All over the place.

All we can do at this point is get out there and vote.

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Response to TahitiNut (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 01:09 PM

22. I don't believe these polls are truthful anyway because they try to make them close.

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Response to TahitiNut (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 02:27 PM

25. Well Said! n/t

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 02:52 PM

26. More from NOVA

I am have been away from DU for quite a while due to many personal matters, one of which was losing my beloved Mother after a long health battle while in hospice. She was, for that last 12 years, my steady Dem rock and she was so excited when Obama won in '08. I miss talking about these campaigns with her...but now I am back at DU and getting my daily dose of sanity.

However, I do live in NOVA and my husband I took two small ventures around the area yesterday and today and I took stock of what I saw. While driving the beautiful back roads visiting the wineries in Middleburg and Marshall yesterday, across the gently rolling hills filled with family farms, I casually took note that quite a number had Obama-Biden signs and then there were the Romney-Ryan signs. It seemed that they were fairly evenly divided and it gave me hope. But then today we visited the small Oktoberfest in Haymarket where the local vendors and restaurants had set up to and there was a "beer garden". It was quite nice until we passed the Romney hate-filled tent with some of the most heinous T-shirts for sale I think I've ever seen. I was, to say the least, aghast. My husband who knows how seriously I take this, just told me to look the other way...but I simply couldn't. And the people hanging around that display, spewing their hatred for Obama...it was almost frightening. Perhaps I am naive, I don't know. But I just can't tell you how miserable I felt coming away from there. It was as if these people are so filled with such hatred for the President and I while I know it is most likely based in race, I was horrified at the thought that Romney is supported by these types of people - and that they are my neighbors. It was sickening what we saw and what we heard - free speech? I suppose so...but there was nothing in this small community of vendors that supported Obama. We simply left. Perhaps all of this means nothing in the "big" picture, I don't know. But it certainly left me reeling and my husband, a Navy vet whose seen his share, was stunned. We drove home in almost complete silence. And when we stopped at Buffalo Wild Wings for lunch and to watch a little college football, there on the BIG SCREEN was an NRA ad "vote November 6 and vote Romney Ryan". WTF is wrong with this country anyway?

'nuff said for now...

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Oct 20, 2012, 03:21 PM

27. Ras daily swing state tracking Romney 50% Obama 46%

 

Getting tough. Monday is big.

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