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Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:21 PM

FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big!

Last edited Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:50 PM - Edit history (1)

November 6th Forecast*:
Electoral Vote: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
Chance of Win: Obama 91.4%, Romney 8.6%
Popular Vote: Obama 50.9%, Romney 48.2%

*November 6th Forecast is now aligned with Now Cast.

Swing States:
Ohio: 86.8% Chance of Obama Win
Iowa: 81.2% Chance of Obama Win
Wisconsin: 94.5% Chance of Obama Win
New Hampshire: 80.2% Chance of Obama Win
Nevada: 90.0% Chance of Obama Win
Colorado: 69.7% Chance of Obama Win
Virginia: 72.6% Chance of Obama Win
Florida: 52.3% of Obama Win
North Carolina: 77.2% of Romney Win

Electoral Distribution Probability:
Obama 303: 14% : Obama wins all swing states but Florida and North Carolina.
Obama 332: 17% : Obama wins all swing states but North Carolina.
Obama 347: 11% : Obama wins all swing states.

Senate:
Democrats: 52.5
Republicans: 47.5

Chance of Majority:
Democrats: 92.2%
Republicans: 7.8%

Notable States:
Massachusetts: 93.6% of Warren Win
Ohio: 96.5% of Brown Win
Missouri: 88.3% of McCaskill Win
Indiana: 67.7% of Donnelly Win
Wisconsin: 77.2% of Baldwin Win
New Mexico: 93.2% of Heinrich Win
Virginia: 85.0% Chance of Kaine Win
West Virginia: 89.7% Chance of Manchin Win
New York: 100% Chance of Gillibrand Win (That's My Girl!)

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big! (Original post)
AaronMayorga Nov 2012 OP
BainsBane Nov 2012 #1
AaronMayorga Nov 2012 #2
Coyotl Nov 2012 #4
BainsBane Nov 2012 #7
NightWatcher Nov 2012 #3
Cha Nov 2012 #5
No Vested Interest Nov 2012 #6

Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:26 PM

1. Silver has Obama with a 52% chance of winning Florida

It's razor close, but he has Obama favored.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:27 PM

2. Nevermind, I saw it. Updated! Thanks!

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:41 PM

4. image

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:10 PM

7. Now 92.2%!

Projected to win 315.3 electoral votes.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:32 PM

3. Hoot 52.5% (of winning Fl) & 91.5% of the whole enchilada

Hoot I say again.

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:51 PM

5. Thanks Aaron!

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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:05 PM

6. Senate wins!

Remember six-months to a year ago when all the pundits predicted the Dems would lose the Senate because they had so many up for election compared to the few the Repubs had?

So glad to see Brown will win in Ohio, though we knew it all along, because Mandel is insufferable and arrogant to even have attempted, given his poor record as state treasurer.

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