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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:48 PM

Nate Silver's Now-cast: POTUS at 94.4%

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/19/1134143/-Nate-Silver-s-Now-cast-POTUS-at-94-4

Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 06:27 PM PDT
Nate Silver's Now-cast: POTUS at 94.4%
by ericlewis0

Short but sweet:

94.4% !!!!! To Romney's 5.6%.
Pretty sure that's the highest this number has been. It represents President Obama's chances if the election were held today.

Nate's Nov.6 forecast also has a new bounce for POTUS - back up to better than three-to-one odds.
Obama: 75.2%, Romney: 24.8%
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


Donate to re-elect President Obama here:
http://www.barackobama.com

12 replies, 2733 views

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Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver's Now-cast: POTUS at 94.4% (Original post)
FourScore Sep 2012 OP
M_M Sep 2012 #1
Tigress DEM Sep 2012 #2
bluestateguy Sep 2012 #3
jimlup Sep 2012 #4
ErikJ Sep 2012 #5
Orrex Sep 2012 #6
Tx4obama Sep 2012 #7
MrModerate Sep 2012 #8
lesgensvontgagner Sep 2012 #9
Manifestor_of_Light Sep 2012 #10
Hokie Sep 2012 #11
Manifestor_of_Light Sep 2012 #12

Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:50 PM

1. Kick

 

+ Rec!

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:51 PM

2. Get your absentee ballots in TODAY!!!!

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:54 PM

3. After a few days of slippage he picked up in the Nov. 6 forecast

The polls in VA, OH and FL must have helped.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 10:01 PM

4. I'm getting nervous about Florida

And as a resident of Michigan I've noticed the Romney PAC's are running ad buys in Michigan again.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:04 PM

5. Another Alf Landon?

1936 he got 8 electoral votes. FDR won.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:13 PM

6. I have a feeling that the margin of error is 5.6%

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Response to Orrex (Reply #6)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:47 PM

7. LOL!!! Good one :) n/t

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 12:25 AM

8. Hooray! However . . .

The House, The Senate, the state legislatures, the Governors' offices.

That's where all Romney's money is going to go once the rats figure out that the ship is, in fact, sinking.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 01:09 AM

9. perfect

 

perfect

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 01:25 AM

10. Diff between Nowcast and Nov 6 cast?

Would like to know what Nov. 6 cast is.
Is it a projection of today's trends or what?

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Response to Manifestor_of_Light (Reply #10)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 08:44 AM

11. Now Cast vs. November 6

The Now Cast is based on current polling data and is the forecast if the election were held today. The November 6 forecast factors in economic data and trends. Nate explained that there was a not so good manufacturing output number that had lowered his November 6th prediction. I expect as we get closer to November and the polls hold his forecast will go up accordingly.

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Response to FourScore (Original post)

Thu Sep 20, 2012, 06:53 PM

12. Thanx. Considers other data.

Nate Silver must be a real statistics nerd.
Freddie Gauss would be proud of him.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Friedrich_Gauss

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