Loki Liesmith
Loki Liesmith's JournalIf Marquette's Wisconsin poll is good for Clinton I'll eat my hat
They have had Trump closing for weeks. Brace yourselves...incoming.
NC Poll by PPP: not a great result
Donald Trump 45
Hillary Clinton 43
Gary Johnson 6
Clinton/Trump head to head is tied at 47
This is not a "sick Hillary effect". Poll was Sunday-Tuesday.
NC will be a hard state to win.
Here is why 538's odds on Hillary are decreasing while The Upshot is increasing.
I knew this, but had put it out of mind. 538 aims to be a predictive model and in doing so it projects trends in horse race numbers forward in time. Today's polls by Monmouth and St. Leo in Florida both had larger leads for HRC way back in August. So todays lead for her is indicatrive of downward trend in her numbers. So her numbers, coupled with weirdo Reuters semi-polls, actually got WORSE.
Frankly, I think this methodology makes no sense. If you do believe in statistical momentum (and I'm not sure I do), incorporate it into your model using the agggregate horse race numbers, not individual polls. If you fit the trendlines to individual polls, you effectively penalize that poll for having drawn an outlier in the past. I can't see a rationale for that at all.
Fitting data in this manner will cause your model to jump around haphazardly, based on the coupling coefficients to each polls trendline, because the polls come at stochastic time. Using an aggregate trend over all polls makes more sense if you value consistency in a model.
Nate Cohn, at NYTimes Upshow seems to have noticed this as well, and I don't think he agrees with Silver based on his twitter timeline.
T+1 in North Caroline over Clinton's Hell Week
https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.htmlNot bad. Very gettable.
Once the bad days shake out of everyone's samples, things are looking much rosier.
Ipsos poll of Ohio has HRC up +3
But Ipsos 50 state polling is very iffy. Take with grain of salt.
It's a two week window. Yikes.
North Carolina poll coming tomorrow morning.
From Elon group. Their release on the senate race today in NC has Ross (D) up +1. That would make it hard to have Trump up by much if anything for the general.
However, the release does have McRory (R) up for governor. So that's kind of weird.
Patrick Murray of Monmouth University's polling unit drops some pro HRC hints
@Davidzteich @ThePlumLineGS In field with multiple polls. Prelim suggests not quite as bad for HRC as last week. Also, underlines volatility
https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777921497558093825
Trump Suggests Arresting Magazine Publishers
Donald Trump took aim at “magazines” and other media that publish instructions on how to make explosive devices, CNN reports.
Said Trump: “So I see the other day, and they’re all talking about it so wonderfully because it’s called freedom of the press — where you buy magazines and they tell you how to make the same bombs that you saw. I would — now people will go crazy, they’ll say Trump is against freedom of the press. I’m totally in favor of freedom of the press. But how do you allow magazines to be sold — these are magazines that tell you, from step one, go to the store and buy such-and-such, right?”
He added: “Those people should be arrested because they are inciting violence, OK.”
https://politicalwire.com/2016/09/19/trump-suggests-arresting-magazine-publishers/
Fun Times Ahead.
Ms Pacman for the Atari 7800 is a pretty great port
In fact the 7800 was an entirely underrated gaming system.
Victim of bad timing.
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