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AaronMayorga

Profile Information

Name: Aaron Mayorga
Gender: Male
Hometown: New York, New York
Home country: United States
Current location: New York, New York
Member since: Wed Oct 3, 2012, 10:38 PM
Number of posts: 128

Journal Archives

Princeton Election Consortium - 10/31 Update

Congrats to the San Francisco Giants!

They've won the World Series 4-0 with a 4-3 victory in Detroit tonight. Congrats to the Giants, the city of SF, and its fans!

FiveThirtyEight Updated! - 10/28/2012

FiveThirtyEight has been updated for October 28th, 2012.

Nov. 6 Forecast: Electoral Vote: 296.6 Obama, 241.4 Romney (PBO: Up 1.1 from yesterday) / Chance of Winning: Obama 74.6%, Romney 25.4% (PBO: Up 1%) / Popular Vote: 50.4% Obama, 48.7% Romney (PBO: Up .1%)


Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight's Now Cast is now in sync with the Princeton Election Consortium's projection.

538 Now: Electoral Vote: 299.6 Obama, 238.2 Romney / PEC Projection: 300 Obama, 238 Romney

Edit: Seems like my projection of 303 Obama, 235 Romney is coming true!

New York Times: "Barack Obama for Re-Election"

Source: The New York Times

The economy is slowly recovering from the 2008 meltdown, and the country could suffer another recession if the wrong policies take hold. The United States is embroiled in unstable regions that could easily explode into full-blown disaster. An ideological assault from the right has started to undermine the vital health reform law passed in 2010. Those forces are eroding women’s access to health care, and their right to control their lives. Nearly 50 years after passage of the Civil Rights Act, all Americans’ rights are cheapened by the right wing’s determination to deny marriage benefits to a selected group of us. Astonishingly, even the very right to vote is being challenged.

That is the context for the Nov. 6 election, and as stark as it is, the choice is just as clear.

President Obama has shown a firm commitment to using government to help foster growth. He has formed sensible budget policies that are not dedicated to protecting the powerful, and has worked to save the social safety net to protect the powerless. Mr. Obama has impressive achievements despite the implacable wall of refusal erected by Congressional Republicans so intent on stopping him that they risked pushing the nation into depression, held its credit rating hostage, and hobbled economic recovery.

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has gotten this far with a guile that allows him to say whatever he thinks an audience wants to hear. But he has tied himself to the ultraconservative forces that control the Republican Party and embraced their policies, including reckless budget cuts and 30-year-old, discredited trickle-down ideas. Voters may still be confused about Mr. Romney’s true identity, but they know the Republican Party, and a Romney administration would reflect its agenda. Mr. Romney’s choice of Representative Paul Ryan as his running mate says volumes about that.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/opinion/sunday/barack-obama-for-president.html?_r=1

This has been moved to the General Discussion from Latest Breaking News for increased exposure.

Get this to DU's Greatest Page!

New York Times: "Barack Obama for Re-Election"

Source: The New York Times

The economy is slowly recovering from the 2008 meltdown, and the country could suffer another recession if the wrong policies take hold. The United States is embroiled in unstable regions that could easily explode into full-blown disaster. An ideological assault from the right has started to undermine the vital health reform law passed in 2010. Those forces are eroding women’s access to health care, and their right to control their lives. Nearly 50 years after passage of the Civil Rights Act, all Americans’ rights are cheapened by the right wing’s determination to deny marriage benefits to a selected group of us. Astonishingly, even the very right to vote is being challenged.

That is the context for the Nov. 6 election, and as stark as it is, the choice is just as clear.

President Obama has shown a firm commitment to using government to help foster growth. He has formed sensible budget policies that are not dedicated to protecting the powerful, and has worked to save the social safety net to protect the powerless. Mr. Obama has impressive achievements despite the implacable wall of refusal erected by Congressional Republicans so intent on stopping him that they risked pushing the nation into depression, held its credit rating hostage, and hobbled economic recovery.

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has gotten this far with a guile that allows him to say whatever he thinks an audience wants to hear. But he has tied himself to the ultraconservative forces that control the Republican Party and embraced their policies, including reckless budget cuts and 30-year-old, discredited trickle-down ideas. Voters may still be confused about Mr. Romney’s true identity, but they know the Republican Party, and a Romney administration would reflect its agenda. Mr. Romney’s choice of Representative Paul Ryan as his running mate says volumes about that.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/opinion/sunday/barack-obama-for-president.html?_r=1



This will be printed and available for read in the October 28th edition of the New York Times.

The Road to 270: Romney's Joementum

Just eleven out until Election Day, it seems as if President Obama is pulling away in polls albeit the race is still quite tight, but don't tell that the liberal media. Another example of the MSM's desire for an electoral horserace, the mainstream media has been perpetuating this claim that Mitt Romney has momentum, but the polls and electoral projections tell a different story.

Here's just some examples of the myth of "Romentum."

"It’s a fool’s game to guess whose momentum is greater. But Romney is peaking at just the right moment."

That was Slate's John Dickerson. Here's another example from the New York Times' David Brooks.

"That if the election were held today (which it won’t be), then President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. At the same time, there seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney."

In the past few days, Professor Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium has responded to this theory of Romentum. Here's his take on the state of the race.

"I will guess that John Dickerson and David Brooks might not have found high school calculus to be their favorite subject. I wonder how they did in it."

He also says...

President Obama would be a bit more likely to win. This is false – he’s a lot more likely to win.
Ro-mentum ended around October 11th, the date of the VP Biden-Ryan debate and reversed around October 16th, Debate #2. Now the median EV expectation is at a plateau around Obama 293 EV, Romney 245 EV.

The New York Times' Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog agreed with Professor Wang in an October 24th Forecast Update entitled In Polls, Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped. In his article, Mr. Silver states that "Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate, putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race. However, it seems that he is no longer doing so."

Moreover, polls released in recent days showing President Obama either leading or tied in battleground states including Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, and Iowa. Let's take a look, shall we?



Moving on, let's look at some projections!




RealClearPolitics (No Toss-Ups)



Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (A bit dated...)






TPM's Electoral Scoreboard




Huffington Post Electoral Map




And to conclude, Nate Silver's projection from last night...




Have any doubts about RealClearPolitics? Well, let me help you put your concerns to rest.



Seems legit.




Talk about a wing and a prayer.

Final Analysis: When the polls, Nate Silver, Sam Wang, Larry Sabato, the Huffington Post, Talking Points Memo, Votamatic, and the awe-inspiring RealClearPolitics shows that your guy is going to lose, yet you firmly believe that he will win. You don't have Romentum; no, you have Romnesia.

Fact Checked My Teacher

Before I begin, I would just like to formally introduce myself on DU. My name is Aaron, I'm 16 years old, and I'm from New York City, New York.

Anyway, let me begin, so in New York State in order to graduate, one must take a Health course. I know it sounds stupid, but for me its an easy 95. Regardless, my teacher is former military, pro-small government, and around fifty years old. He also has a sticker saying that he supports the separation of "Darwin and state," so it comes as now surprise that he is a Republican.

So in today's class, I walked in and saw on the board "$712 billion cut from Medicare" and an arrow pointing to AARP. This didn't come as a surprise since he done enough Obama-bashing for a lifetime. Anyway, I, who is not a fan of political discussion with teachers, thought to myself, seriously. So, we begin discusses what AARP actually does and why it endorsed the Affordable Care Act. He came to the conclusion that AARP endorsed the Affordable Care Act simply because its "Medicare cuts" forced seniors to get more supplement coverage from AARP. In other words, lobbying. It's an interesting argument that sounds reasonable, obviously it's was a bunch of stuff, malarkey if you please.

I'd had enough. I'd allowed him to walk over the Affordable Care Act for nearly two months, and allowed him to spew GOP talking points to the fellow classmates. I had heard this Medicare crap all throughout the summer, the conventions, and the debates. I, being a policy wonk, had that Joe Biden smile of death on my face as I raised my hand. When I was called, I quickly pointed out that it was not $712 billion in cuts but actually $716 billion. Next, I pointed out that the Medicare cuts wasn't from coverage to seniors, but actually from wasteful spending to hospitals and big pharma. Finally, I said that the Paul Ryan's budget also cut the same number, but the cuts under "Obamacare" extended Medicare by eight years. As I spoke, I realized that the class favored by facts over his talking points.

He tried to cut me off, but I persisted. I, then, pointed out the Washington Post had given it four pinocchios, and that PolitiFact.com (I had also pointed out that it was an arm of the Tampa Bay Times and was a winner of the Pultizer Prize) had deemed it as utterly false. He, then, said, "The Washington Post endorsed Obama. It's not true." I simply, "No, it's called facts." The class, in unison, yelled, "Oh!" My teacher looked at me with that face (the "I know I just got fact-checked face"), and had no reply.

Shut him up real good...

Edit: He also attempted to tell me and my friend that Fox News wasn't biased.

Note: I attend a Catholic High School on a scholarship; since most NYC high schools are terrible especially in the Bronx.

HuffPost & TPM Electoral Maps

With just fifteen days left until Election Day and less than one day until the third Presidential Debate, the Huffington Post and Talking Points Memo Electoral Maps show President Obama with a commanding lead in the EV race.

At the moment, the Huffington Post shows the President with 277 Electoral Votes, seven more required to clinch a second term, and Republican Mitt Romney with 206 EVs. The map shows Obama winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Governor Romney holds a slight lead in North Carolina, with New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia and Colorado as toss-ups.

Similarly, the Talking Points Memo Electorial Scoreboard shows President Obama with 259 Electoral Votes, and leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Once again, Republican challenger Mitt Romney lags behind with only 199 EVs, while holding slight leads in North Carolina and New Hampshire. Toss-ups include Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, and Virgina.

Interestingly, the TPM Electoral Scoreboard shows Tennessee as only "leaning Romney." Perhaps, Tennessee may be this election cycle's Indiana, but that seems unlikely.

With these current maps, a Romney victory seems highly unlikely, however a strong debate on Monday may turn the tides in his favor. Even then, for Romney to reach the magical 270, it would require him to win Ohio (where Obama currently leads), Florida (which according to a CNN poll, is only leading by 1%), Colorado, and then some.

For more insight, Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium shows the President with 293 EVs with Romney winning 245 EVs. The "meta-margin" shows Obama with a 2.12% lead. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight projects the President to win 288.6 (289) EVs with 50.0% of the Popular Vote, and winning the Election 68% of the time.

To conclude, it seems as if the President's 271 firewall is holding up. However, for us democrats, we aren't in the clear just yet, but some good news certainly doesn't hurt.
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