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AaronMayorga

Profile Information

Name: Aaron Mayorga
Gender: Male
Hometown: New York, New York
Home country: United States
Current location: New York, New York
Member since: Wed Oct 3, 2012, 10:38 PM
Number of posts: 128

Journal Archives

Conservative RAGE on Facebook After Obama Wins

As many of you may, or may not know, that I am sixteen, and I oftentimes find myself getting into heated arguments over politics with teachers and friends. One of my conservative friends, whose name is David, from California had this to say after Obama won re-election on Tuesday:

God DAMN it America. You re-elected this idiot who is going to put us over 20 trillion in debt?! What the HELL is wrong with you! Too lazy to get a job? Too lazy to work for a living so you steal it from others? Well congratulations, you just ruined the God damned lives of so many more people. Have fun paying insane taxes and losing all of our God damned defenses, now we're an open target, now every military family will suffer, all because of YOU. I hope you can look back at all the suffering there is to come and see the mistake you have made in your blind looks at this moron who you just put back in the Oval Office. It should be by POPULAR VOTE!


Now, many of you can obviously see the inaccuracies and idiocy laced in this posting, but I guessed I was warned as my best friend (who speaks to David more than I do) told me that he was becoming angry over my anti-conservative postings on Facebook. Well, my belligerent self couldn't let this go by. Here was my response (I was responding to the original post and his eventual assertion that Bush added only $80 billion to the debt and PBO added $16 trillion).

Really? Bush put us $80 billion in debt? So, how was it that Bush comes in with a surplus and leaves with $11 trillion in debt? Yes, Obama has added $5 trillion to the debt but that was through stimulus (which works by the way, unlike Austerity), bailing out the banks and the auto industry. Plus, Republicans love to call Obama a "socialist," this man bailed out Wall Street. He, in a sense, saved the Capitalist system, and he let the banks use the bailout money as they pleased. So, since he wants to raise taxes 3% on upper income people, he becomes a socialist. Reality check, taxes were above 70% under Eisenhower and 50% under Reagan.

Also, on the defense point, Thomas Jefferson, a huge proponent of small government, cut military spending and closed foreign embassies in order to cut the federal debt.


Here's the rest of the discussion:

David: Ohhhhh OK Aaron, magically 11 trillion shows up, no, 15.2 trillion came when Obama came up. Stop believing every picture you see on Facebook and google search, open your damned eyes and see what the Hell is happening to this country.

Me: Let me quote Bill Clinton, "It's arithmetic."

David: Oh yeah Clinton was REAAALLL great. Charts made on facebook are not arithmetic.

Me: From PolitiFact: "$10.63 trillion debt Obama inherited when he came into office January 19, 2009."

David: Oh, because the internet is all true Aaron.

One of his friends interjected to say: "The economy was at a surplus with Clinton. Are you high David? lol"

Me: Yes, because Fox is true.

David: 99% of media is all bull, and you're a blind fool for believing it all.

Me: I guess the Romney campaign won't be dictated by fact checkers. Have fun in alternate reality land. Time to watch Mr. Romney's concession speech.

David: Popular vote is how an election should be won.

Me: So, Gore should have been elected in 2000?


_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Then, there was some random idiot saying that our votes don't count, we'll call him Philly.

Philly: A candidate must receive an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) to win the Presidency... Your vote dosnt mean shit A candidate must receive an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) to win the Presidency... Your vote doesnt and never mattered.. The number of electors is 538, based on the total voting membership of the United States Congress (435 Representatives and 100 Senators).. Check your 12th and 23rd amendments .. - from the words of madude mike speakin the truth..but hey at least yall got stickers and buttons and bumper stickers..#blindedneanderthals

Me: I've know that for some time, but your vote, in a sense, does matter since the electors pledge to vote for the candidate who won their state. Now, yes, there are 'faithless electors' who will vote for another candidate but it is generally one vote which has never swayed an election in the other candidate's favor. By the way, ask Mr. Gore if the vote of the people didn't matter. #537

Also, the Electoral College existed before the 12th Amendment, that amendment simply made it that the electors voted for the President/VP ticket instead of individually voting for both, which resulting in the Adams/Jefferson administration from 1796-1800, and the 23rd simply gave DC the ability to send 3 electors to vote. Once again, the Electoral College had existed before that, since it was established in the Constitution (article 2, section 1, clause 2). How about you read up on these things before you post them on Facebook.


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Idiocy at its finest...

Obama's Last Campaign Event Airing Now!

President Barack and Michelle Obama's final campaign event of his political career will be aired on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell on MSNBC.

You can also watch it here: http://new.livestream.com/barackobama/Iowa
The Boss is performing right now!
Posted by AaronMayorga | Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:56 PM (7 replies)

FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big!

November 6th Forecast*:
Electoral Vote: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
Chance of Win: Obama 91.4%, Romney 8.6%
Popular Vote: Obama 50.9%, Romney 48.2%

*November 6th Forecast is now aligned with Now Cast.

Swing States:
Ohio: 86.8% Chance of Obama Win
Iowa: 81.2% Chance of Obama Win
Wisconsin: 94.5% Chance of Obama Win
New Hampshire: 80.2% Chance of Obama Win
Nevada: 90.0% Chance of Obama Win
Colorado: 69.7% Chance of Obama Win
Virginia: 72.6% Chance of Obama Win
Florida: 52.3% of Obama Win
North Carolina: 77.2% of Romney Win

Electoral Distribution Probability:
Obama 303: 14% : Obama wins all swing states but Florida and North Carolina.
Obama 332: 17% : Obama wins all swing states but North Carolina.
Obama 347: 11% : Obama wins all swing states.

Senate:
Democrats: 52.5
Republicans: 47.5

Chance of Majority:
Democrats: 92.2%
Republicans: 7.8%

Notable States:
Massachusetts: 93.6% of Warren Win
Ohio: 96.5% of Brown Win
Missouri: 88.3% of McCaskill Win
Indiana: 67.7% of Donnelly Win
Wisconsin: 77.2% of Baldwin Win
New Mexico: 93.2% of Heinrich Win
Virginia: 85.0% Chance of Kaine Win
West Virginia: 89.7% Chance of Manchin Win
New York: 100% Chance of Gillibrand Win (That's My Girl!)
Posted by AaronMayorga | Mon Nov 5, 2012, 09:21 PM (7 replies)

An Obama Victory

In less than twelve hours, the polls will be opening, and people will be headed there to cast their ballots for the House, the Senate, and most importantly. Throughout the nation, people will be voting in swing states like Nevada and Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin, Ohio and Colorado. It is these people who will decide this election, and these people will be choosing the path that this nation will take.

Folks, we all know what's at stake in this Election, whether its Women's reproductive rights, the future of Medicare and Social Security, the fate of the president's healthcare reform law, and immigration rights among other important issues. However, this election determines America's standing on the world stage whether it is willing to stumble into the trap of austerity that has plagued the European Union for nearly two years or whether it is willing to stand up for what's right to create a more perfect union.

This election also determines how we as a nation will tackle the debt problem. Will we tackle the problem with tax breaks for millionaires and eviscerating medicare or will we fix the problem by using policies that are past proven to have worked?

But, the economy is not the only thing that will be determined by the outcome of this election. As Joe Biden noted in the Vice Presidential Debate that "Roe v. Wade hangs in the balance," the winner of this election will likely shape the future of the Supreme Court. Are we willing to sit idly by and allow Mitt Romney to take the White House and appoint conservative judges to upset the balance. Are we willing to bring back reproductive rights to pre-1970s and take women's health decisions from the hands of the women and into the hands of politicians. What if a conservative SCOTUS, under Romney, finds the Defense of Marriage Act as constitutional? Are we willing to allow gay rights to be set back and the blood of activists like Harvey Milk to be shed in vain? I say Hell no!

If President Obama wins tomorrow, he will become cemented into American politics as a legend. His gutsy decision to take out Osama bin Laden in 2011 and his unpopular decision to bailout General Motors and Chrysler, and his standoff with the Congressional Republicans during the debt ceiling crisis will only be rivaled by President Clinton's standoff with Newt Gingrich in the 1990s. Furthermore, he will be remembered in history as the president who stared down right-wing extremists and against all odds managed to defeat an obstructionist Republican party. If the President wins a second term, he would have been the first President since Franklin Roosevelt to be re-elected with unemployment as high as it is.

If President Obama wins a second term, it means that we will have chosen the path to create the more perfect Union that the founding fathers had wished to create. It means that we are willing to stand on the right side of history when it comes to gay rights and women's rights. It means that we are willing to take the more difficult path that leads to a better place. It means that we are fed up with right wing extremism and trickle down economics. It means that we are willing to stand up for what's right and preserve universal healthcare for the millions of uninsured living in this nation of ours.

If President Obama wins, it sets up a potential 2014 re-taking of the House, and eventually sets up a successful run by Hillary Clinton in 2016 or whoever the nominee for the DNC is. An Obama victory redefines the political outlook for the next four years and potentially the next twelve years.

However, this future of progress can only work if President Obama is elected to a second term. This is the choice that America faces as Bruce Springsteen said, "The separation between the American Dream and the American Reality" will be determined in this election. Let us put an end to Willard Mitt Romney, let us put an end to this terrible incarnation of the Republican Party, let us make the right choice and move FORWARD!

Let's do this...
Posted by AaronMayorga | Mon Nov 5, 2012, 08:34 PM (1 replies)

Scott Arceneaux on Hardball

Scott Arceneaux, executive director of the DNC in Florida said that if you get in line before 7pm (when the polls close), do not leave as they have to let you in.

You hear that Florida DUers! Don't leave if you are on the line after the polls close. They have to let you in!
Posted by AaronMayorga | Mon Nov 5, 2012, 05:53 PM (2 replies)

Record Latino Turnout for Obama

On MSNBC's The Cycle, Steve Kornacki noted that a Latino voting group (couldn't catch the name) conducted its final poll, and concluded that 73% of Latino voters will vote for President Obama, breaking the previous record of 72% from Bill Clinton's 1996 campaign.

Then, Touré says that would give Obama Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia.

Game, set, match.

Sherrod Brown (D) leads Josh Mandel (R) 54-44

PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls

Sherrod Brown leads 54-44 in the Ohio Senate race, 2nd week in a row we've found him up by around 10: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-leads-in-ohio-and-virginia.html
Posted by AaronMayorga | Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:29 PM (4 replies)

The Alabama-LSU Rule

There are many prognosticators of who will win the 2012 Presidential Election such as the Halloween Masks, the Redskins Rule, the Lakers Law, and the World Series Winner. However, one of the lesser known sports prognosticators happens to be the Alabama-LSU Rule. The rule states that if Alabama wins the matchup between the two rivals, a Democrat will win the race for the White House. If LSU wins, a Republican will win.

So, what is the track record of this rule? Let's take a look.

1984: LSU 16, Alabama 14. Ronald Reagan (R) demolishes Walter Mondale (D).

1988: LSU 19, Alabama 18. George H.W. Bush (R) defeats Michael Dukakis (D).

1992: Alabama 31, LSU 11. Bill Clinton (D) defeats George H.W. Bush (R).

1996: Alabama 26, LSU 0. Clinton (D) defeats Bob Dole (R).

2000: LSU 30, Alabama 28. George W. Bush (R) defeats Al Gore (D).

2004: LSU 26, Alabama 10. George W. Bush (R) defeats John Kerry (D).

2008: Alabama 27, LSU 21. Barack Obama (D) defeats John McCain (R).


Tonight, LSU and Alabama faced off once again. The result Alabama 21, LSU 17.

This means that President Obama will win re-election on Tuesday.

Republicans for Obama

I had a wonderful conversation with my mom's supervisor as I was volunteering at her job for community service (she works at a psychiatric center).

He grew up in France who is currently a Captain in Army Reserve, and I heard that he was an Obama supporter. I told my mom that I was surprised that he would support Obama as, in my experience, people in the military generally voted Republican.

He told me that he was a moderate, and that there wasn't of those left in his party. When I mentioned the Tea Party, he laughed and said "those guys are crazy." He told me that during the GOP primaries he had trouble finding a candidate to support as all of them were too extreme.

I asked why he was voting for Obama in this election, and if he voted for McCain in '08. He said that he voted for Obama in 2008 because McCain was too vague on his policies (it was his first time voting democrat). He also said that he agrees with Obama on the economy, social issues, and foreign policies.

He said that even in '04, he was weary of Bush but believed at the time that the nation needed strong national security. Next, he said how Obama had proved him and some of his friends wrong on foreign policy. He uses these exact words: "A Democrat had never done things like that before."

I asked if he was like Colin Powell. He said yes, and he said that economy was growing albeit slowly and thought that PBO was headed in the right direction. He said that it was also unfair to compare Reagan's recovering to Obama's since the world is a much different place than it was 30 years ago.

The, he lambasted Paul Ryan. He said that "he has this budget and he can't even defend his own positions" and he thought Romney couldn't be trusted. He also said that he thought that putting Ryan on the ticket might have helped him vote for Romney, but it did the exact opposite. Next, he said thankfully we have social media to keep track of these people, and he said that when it comes to Romney/Ryan: "People aren't so stupid as they think. They're catching up."

He concluded by saying that Obama is a centrist which is what the country needs, and that the GOP needs to return to the center for the good of the country and "to represent their constituents." He said that if the GOP doesn't change on social issues and the economy, he can't imagine the Republicans winning anymore more elections.

Posted by AaronMayorga | Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:20 AM (1 replies)

Nevada & the Presidency

What is the winner of Nevada's relationship to the presidency? Well, let's take a look.

1980: Ronald Reagan
1984: Ronald Reagan
1988: George H.W. Bush
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: George W. Bush
2004: George W. Bush
2008: Barack Obama

The winner of Nevada has gone on to win the election the last eight elections.
Recent polls show Obama leading, and Nate Silver gives PBO an 85% chance of carrying the state next Tuesday.

Posted by AaronMayorga | Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:03 PM (0 replies)
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