morningfog
morningfog's Journal"Love trumps hate" is a bad slogan, regardless of its origin.
It has various meanings, but one is "To love Trump's hate." Trump's hate is well known. We should not, even by mistaken interpretation, advocate loving that hate.
Hillary will likely reach her high water mark in her lead over Bernie for pledged delegates tonight
It is quite possible that tonight's haul, in which Hillary is likely to net some additional delegates in her lead over Bernie, will be the greatest her lead over Bernie ever gets. From here, Bernie is likely to start chipping away at her pledged delegates advantage, drawing ever closer to within striking distance.
The next few weeks look to be very bad for HIllary and very good for Bernie. In a sense, today's results will establish where the heart of the race is. It sets the stage for the long slog portion of the campaigns. We will know how well Bernie needs to do to catch HIllary and whether it is likely or possible.
Bernie will chip away, and chunk away at times, as we move towards the final contests of June 7, with 694 pledged delegates up for grabs, and June 14, with the final 20. Bernie will need to work the next three months to get to within a reasonable shot of closing the final gap with a decent net-win form those last 714 pledged delegates. We'll soon know how steep a hill it will be to climb.
Go Bernie!
For reference, 538's day before 3/15 Primary forecast
Here are the "Highest Probability" Polls-Only Projected Results from 538 as of 3/14/16 10:20 am EST:
FL: H - 65.2, B - 31.9
IL: H - 54.8, B - 42.1
MO: H- 50.7, B - 44.8
NC: H - 60.9, B - 35.9
OH: H - 57.2, B - 40
I think the actual results will be pretty far off this, with the exception of FL.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/#polls-only
It is unlikely either candidate will reach 2,383 through pledged delegates alone. To what end?
At this point in the race, it seems unlikely that either candidate will secure enough pledged delegates to reach 2,383 outright without the delegate votes of at least some super delegates.
Specifically, Hillary would need 59% of all remaining pledged delegates to get to 2,383 pledged delegates. Since Bernie is winning states and collecting his share of pledged delegates, he is keeping it close enough to stay in through the end of the primary calendar making it unlikely Hillary will obtain enough PDs to reach 2,383.
In that event, it is dependent on the super delegates for a candidate to become the nominee and reach 2,373.
This would be the same scenario as in 2008. Neither Hillary nor Obama reached the nomination number on pledged delegates alone. Enough super delegates, however, expressed support for the pledged delegate majority winner, Obama, to bridge the gap. Only then did Hillary concede the nomination and end her campaign.
What should the result be this time?
What will the result be?
Should the candidate with a simple majority of the pledged delegates (2,026+) become the nominee? My position is that it should be that candidate.
Should the super delegates make their votes at the convention without regard to the pledged delegate winner?
In the event one candidate has theoretically reached 2,383 based on expressed super D support, should the other candidate drop out or take it to the convention?
I concede that this could be nothing more that a thought experiment. It's possible that there will be only one candidate left be the convention. Regardless, what do you think should happen under the above scenario?
I hope it was Bernie supporters, no one else has demonstrated how to stop trump
Bernie's supporters have something that all the other candidates (on both sides) lack. Passion.
You can't beat trump by personal insults, he feeds on that, or by criticizing his pathetic record. He brags about the stupidity of his supporters.
It will take PEOPLE who are most passionate and engaged about their cause than trumps lemmings.
It was a thing of beauty tonight. Trump cancelled. He was scared. He was lost.
Just imagine a presidential race in 2016 between a socialist and a facsist
There's no middle ground there. Imagine what the centrist party liners would do, from each side.
Imagine the debates. Imagine the media coverage.
Hillary's daft Reagan AIDS comment: Another peek of off script Hillary
Like when confronted by the "Bring them the heel" statement. When she is not scripted and statements not focus group tested, she bombs.
Like the first few times she was asked about her emails.
Like the first few times she was asked about her speech transcripts.
Marco Rubio Campaign Urges Supporters to Back John Kasich in Ohio
A top aide to Senator Marco Rubio on Friday urged his supporters in Ohio to back Gov. John Kasich in that state’s primary on Tuesday, giving fresh momentum to efforts stop Donald J. Trump a day after a debate in which his rivals declined to take a swing at the leading Republican presidential candidate.
Alex Conant, Mr. Rubio’s spokesman, made the comments in an interview with CNN. He said that he hoped supporters of Mr. Kasich and of Senator Ted Cruz would support Mr. Rubio in his home state primary in Florida, and that he would suggest Mr. Rubio’s backers in Ohio do the same by supporting Mr. Kasich there.
“I’m just stating the obvious,” Mr. Conant said. “If you are a Republican primary voter in Ohio and you want to defeat Donald Trump, your best chance in Ohio is John Kasich, because John Kasich is the sitting governor, he’s very close to Donald Trump in some of the polls there.”
He said the reverse was true in Mr. Rubio’s home state, suggesting that supporters of Mr. Kasich and Mr. Cruz back Mr. Rubio there.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/03/11/marco-rubio-campaign-urges-supporters-to-back-john-kasich-in-ohio/?_r=0
Bernie will not be mathematically eliminated, if at all, before June 7 - the last day
June 7 is essentially the last day of the race, with only D.C. (20 PDs) voting after, on June 14.
Neither candidate will realistically be able to put the race away mathematically until June 7, when CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND and SD vote, representing a total of 694 delegates.
To illustrate, if Hillary won EVERY contest starting now by 60% to 40%, she would not reach 2,026 (half of all pledged delegates) until the June 7 states vote.
In short, Bernie will not be mathematically eliminated, if he is at all, until the last day of voting. (If it goes to DC without a majority for either...WHOA).
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