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morningfog

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Member since: Thu Jan 12, 2012, 04:24 PM
Number of posts: 17,717

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Prediction: Bernie concedes tonight

I predict he will concede the race to Hillary and give a rousing and gracious speech. He'll have some 45% of the delegates at the convention, he will continue to have influence on the party. He will take it to the republicans and trump.

In my opinion, tonight would be the point to maximize his popularity and influence. I would have advised him to stay in until now and I would advise him to concede tonight with the last big night of voting.

He's run a great campaign, but far from flawless. I still think he and his team were surprised at how well received his message is. He has served the party well and we are fortunate that he joined the Dems for this run.

The timing of the AP's call lays bare the ridiculousness of Super Delegates

Under the current system, it was not "early" or "premature" to call Hillary the presumptive nominee. It was awkward and revealing though. The reason the call itself is being discussed is not because it included super delegates, but because the AP relied on a count of super delegates on and off voting night.

The problem is not that it will suprress votes, although it may have that effect, but that there were no states voting yesterday. No people were casting their votes. Had the AP made the same call on a voting night, no one would bat an eye. Had the call been made in any day other than a primary voting day, the reaction would be the same.

It's awkward and uncomfortable for the media to call attention to the most undemocratic portion of our nominating process. It's a little embarrassing that this system allows for 15% of unfettered party insiders to have enough power to tip the race at any point, but especially on the eve of the last big vote.

It's not the AP that suppresses votes or steals Hillary's thunder, it is the use of super delegates.

The simple rejoiner is: do away with super delegates.

Tomorrow Hillary will become the presumptive nominee and it is a reason to celebrate

By any measure, Hillary will become the presumptive nominee tomorrow. She will secure a majority of the pledged delegates and she will enjoy the public support of enough super delegates to reach the total majority of delegates.

It is historic and should be, and will be, honored and respected. No one can take away her accomplishments or that she has reached this milestone. I wish her and all of her supporters a preemptive congratulations.

As much as I disagree with some of her policies, she has earned it. It is also possible to celebrate the first woman nominee of a major party and the Democratic Party while continuing to support Bernie, his run and his policies. There may come a point where it is not possible, but I don't expect that will happen. And it won't be tomorrow regardless.

Again, much respect and Hillary Clinton and her supporters. This is an historic and important moment.

Glad to see Hillary come out with two guns blazing against trump, she still makes me nervous

I have no doubt Hillary can take on trumpy and bury him. She gutted him today and it was a thing of beauty. Not to take anything away from her, but he makes it easy really. And I'm not sure why his republican competitors folded so easily.

There is simply no measure, no area, no metric in which trumpy surpasses Hillary. I'm not even considering policy positions, because trumpy's are ethereal and shift with every question. His are a house of cards. Not an elaborate impressively built house of cards, but the kind a novice eight year old takes pride in. Three or four levels and ever so fragile.

Hillary laid it bare well today. But, and there is a but, I am still nervous about her as the nominee. I accept that she has won the primary. I disagree with her on several issues but always have with whomever the nominee is. And Hillary would be a fine president. She's smart and adept and driven. I agree with her more than I disagree and far more than I agree with whatever trumpy's positions are. But I am nervous and anxious. I simply can't take her word that she isn't at serious risk of being so dogged by scandal that she loses the GE.

I'm not sure that all of her staff will come out on the other side of the FBI investigation unscathed. I don't expect Hillary to be charged, but am less sure about her staffers and really have no way of knowing for anyone.

Hillary can and will win unless she has already sealed her and the democratic party's and the country's fate. I sincerely hope that she hasn't.

Is there a transcript of Hillary's speech up yet?

The foreign policy speech from today?

There is one primary after June 14 and it carries as many delegates as CA and NY combined

The super delegate primary is worth 714 delegates this year, 15% of the total pool of delegates.

They aren't bound and haven't voted yet. They won't vote in the super delegate primary until July 25-28.

If Bernie sticks with it until the convention, the race will continue not with appeals to common voters, but with appeals to the super delegates. Bernie will make his case as to why he is the stronger candidate and Hillary will seek to prevent defections in the shadow of an FBI criminal investigation.

We'd have about a month and a half of the leg of the race. A lot of news and headlines will come and go.

It will be interesting, for sure. Will there be any cracks in the super delegate damn from Hillary to Bernie? Doubtful at this point.

Meanwhile, the repub convention is a week prior to the Dem's. Trumpy and some scary doofus (Kim Jong un?) will accept he batshit nomination.

I wonder if/when Hillary will announce her VP?

I can see serious pressure and calls for Bernie to drop. But he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by staying in. He has the leverage. He's the thorn in the DNC's side that they want to go away. But he has the support of over 10 million voters. Only two candidate have every received more Democratic votes in a primary: Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama.

Come on! This is going to be fun!

If the leading candidate suspends their campaign, the runner up should be the nominee, agreed?

Hypothetically, in the unlikely event that the leading candidate for the nomination suspends their campaign for some unforeseeable reason, the voice of the people -- namely, the candidate who is in a close second -- should be made the nominee, right?

Do we all agree on that?

Hillary will not "clinch" the nomination unless Bernie drops out or the convention floor vote

Hillary will not "clinch" the nomination unless Bernie drops out or the convention floor vote, whichever comes first.

She will undoubtedly secure the majority of the pledged delegates next week. And, as of now, enjoys the support of enough super delegates to bridge the gap to the number to clinch. Thus, she will become the "presumptive nominee" on June 7. Only if/when Bernie drops out will she have clinched it. Alternatively, she would clinch if/when she receives 2,383 delegate votes on the convention floor.

But Bernie is taking to the convention and for good reason. Not the least of which is the State OIG report release, which publicly raised serious questions and concerns about Hillary as a nominee and her inherent liability to the party. My hope it the FBI wraps up and reports prior to the convention in order for the party to make an informed decision, one way or the other.

To be clear, I hope that Hillary is not implicated in any criminal liability and I hope none of her staff are. However, the OIG report made clear that assuming there was no wrongdoing is erroneous. It remains an open and serious question.

On shutting down GDP with a date certain

It seems premature to declare that the primary will end at the last vote, June 14.

Given the liabilities with Hillary and Bernie's renewed declaration that he will take it to the convention and the unresolved FBI investigation, it is plausible/possible/likely that it will not be finally resolved until a vote on the convention floor.

And there will be countless stories and continuing news between June 14 and July 24, perhaps even major events that turn the race upside down.

For the sake of clarity, to the extent Bernie continues the race beyond June 14 up to and including the convention, where will the primary discussions occur?


Further, discussions of the very real FBI criminal investigation into Hillary's server and its use cannot be construed as "attacking the presumptive nominee," would you agree?

Evidence from the IG Report: Clinton violated the law, but committed no crime.



* * *

Most crucially, the inspector general directly contradicts Clinton's repeated assertions that she complied both with federal law and State Department policies. "At a minimum," the report finds, "Secretary Clinton should have surrendered all emails dealing with Department business before leaving government service and, because she did not do so, she did not comply with Department's policies that were implemented in accordance with the Federal Records Act."

The report goes further, noting that while Clinton's subsequent production of 55,000 pages of emails in response to State Department demands partially corrected these violations, the records Clinton turned over were incomplete. Remarkably, the report includes reference to a previously unreleased 2010 email in which Clinton, responding to her deputy chief of staff for operations, Huma Abedin, directly addresses her lack of an official State Department email account and voices a fear of the "risk of the personal being accessible" if she had one. In a briefing, State Department officials were unable to confirm the source of this email, but if it was omitted from the records Clinton produced, it again would raise questions about the process she used to distinguish between "federal records" and "personal records" before destroying the latter.

The inspector general also reveals the comments of State Department records management staff in late 2010 expressly raising concerns that Clinton's private email server "could contain federal records that needed to be preserved in order to satisfy federal record-keeping requirements." A senior official rebuffed these concerns, claiming that Clinton's email arrangement "had been approved by the department legal staff" -- an assertion the inspector general concluded was untrue -- and directed staff "never to speak of the secretary's personal email system again."

Such facts undermine the argument that the significance of maintaining a private server and the negative effects it could have, including on responses to Freedom of Information Act requests or congressional subpoenas, were simply overlooked.

* * *

Yet the inspector general's report also highlights the uncertainty that surrounds the precise scope of the current FBI investigation. To the extent the FBI has limited its inquiry to security issues and the possible mishandling of classified information, for example, the inspector general's report finding violations of the federal records laws potentially implicates a different criminal statute.

Removing, concealing, or destroying federal records, regardless of whether they are classified, can constitute a federal felony. But again, courts have generally required prosecutors pursuing this charge to prove that defendants knew they were violating the law, for which the evidence against Clinton appears to be lacking.

* * *

Based on the publicly available evidence, the reality appears to be nuanced in a way that is satisfying to neither side.

Clinton violated the law, but committed no crime.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/05/26/opinions/clinton-email-server-ig-report-opinion-cox/


The problem is that we know that the FBI has dug deeper than the OIG. Hillary and her inner circle refused to cooperate with the OIG, but the FBI has access to the personnel and emails that the OIG could not get. The focus of the respective investigations is different as well.

The fact is, we don't know what threads the FBI has followed. Picking up from where the OIG left off, the FBI would want to know why the personal emails were destroyed, by whom and what was in them. What the FBI found in those self-selected emails deleted as "personal" could prove to be the make or break point.

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