Member since: Tue Jun 28, 2011, 06:03 PM
Number of posts: 9,208
Number of posts: 9,208
Okay, I realize this article is a couple of weeks old, but it's so good, I just had to share it. I'm sure many of you have been paying attention to the Siberian hole discoveries of late, whether out of worry, or curiosity, or perhaps, a mixture of the two. Well, in any case, Andrew Revkin of the impeccable DotEarth blog did an interview with Marina Leibman, one of the chief scientists of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who happens to be a veteran permafrost expert with as much as 40 years' experience in her field.
I had a Skype chat Wednesday about Siberian permafrost in the context of climate change with Marina Leibman, a top Russian permafrost expert who had just returned from examining the unusual crater spotted on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia late last week.
We talked just before fresh reports circulated about reindeer herders finding another such hole in the region.....
Leibman, the chief scientist at the Earth Cryosphere Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has studied permafrost since 1973 and has a remarkable publication record.
She describes how the first hole (and presumably the new one) appear to have formed as methane is released from a warming mix of ice, water and soil, building up pressure that explosively pushed out the top of the hole, heaving chunks of earth many yards in some directions.....
She said there were no signs of combustion, that the hole had to be at least a year old because there was fresh greenery from this summer season with no overlying layer of mud or the like.
Leibman stressed that there were no indications that such events were more than the normal process of lake formation in the area and predicted that the hole she inspected would end up being a lake in coming years.
She also stressed that she sees no signs of current or imminent warming producing a great destabilization of permafrost in the Arctic: “You can’t say in 20 years it will be 2 degrees warmer so permafrost will be thawing. It will make it 2 degrees warmer, but not thawing – at least in the far north.....
So, there we go. To be honest, this doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about permafrost anymore. We should be. However, though, this does shine some (much needed!) new light on the phenomenon and may hopefully bring the conversation a little bit back towards Earth.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Thu Aug 7, 2014, 03:02 PM (35 replies)
For some reason.....I dunno what it could be, exactly.....I can't access Rootsweb at all. This is the address I normally use, btw: http://wc.rootsweb.ancestry.com
I hope the site hasn't been taken out; I heard there may have been a DDOS attack recently.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Sun Jun 22, 2014, 12:45 AM (3 replies)
People do forget facts under pressure sometimes.....I know that's happened to me.
But I do know all 50 of the state capitals.
From west to east(P.S. not really in the exact order, however. ):
Honolulu(Hawa'ii, our POTUS's hometown)
Oklahoma City(Okla., of course)
And then, San Juan is Puerto Rico's capital, as a bonus.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Thu Jun 19, 2014, 09:32 PM (1 replies)
Well, okay, since others are getting into it, I will, too. Honestly, it does bother me quite a bit when some radfems say that guys can't be feminists, because we aren't women. Well.....that's not true. After all, isn't feminism about supporting equal rights, levelling the playing field as much as possible, etc.? Because, you know what? I support all of these things. Wholeheartedly. Then, if so.....am I not a feminist? Simply because I'm of the "wrong" gender?
BTW, I do realize this isn't so much a problem on DU as elsewhere, but I have heard this a few times on here as well and it IS a little unsettling, TBH. So, reply away, as you will.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Tue Jun 10, 2014, 09:49 PM (7 replies)
For those of you who may not have been paying much attention, there is a *major* severe weather outbreak unfolding across the southern states right now and there's already been at least one strong, damaging tornado in Arkansas with multiple reports of serious damage in several communities.
This was the latest bulletin on the aforementioned tornado, as of 7:48 pm.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
TBH, I've been watching this all day and it's like a switch just flipped, right about 5 pm CDT. This is getting scary, folks. This one tornado might have been a violent tornado, too, according to some reports.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Sun Apr 27, 2014, 08:52 PM (17 replies)
Found this excellent piece by Andrew Revkin on DotEarth:
I encourage you to read “Facing the Climate Crisis without Hysteria,” the latest Huffington Post piece by Steven A. Cohen, who is the executive director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute and whose career, including long stints at the Environmental Protection Agency, has given him an excellent vantage point on the mix of regulation, motivation, prosperity and innovation that drives environmental progress.
The piece appropriately decries caricatured, baseless attacks on climate science by conservative ideologues and those seeking to delay a shift away from fossil fuels. But Cohen also criticizes climate campaigners and some in the media for responding with oversimplified predictions of environmental doom. Here’s an excerpt and link, with some more background on Cohen:
I think the questioning of science by the American right wing and the political assaults funded by their rich benefactors are proving to be a distraction to those interested in moving the planet to a path of sustainable economic growth. It is turning analysts into advocates and advocates into hysterics. The IPCC report focused a great deal of attention on solutions, but the media accounts of the report focused on the possibility of food shortages. Here we go again: Chicken Little’s sky is falling in. Climate and ecological impacts are creating deep problems in agriculture. While there is no question that these are real problems, as in the past these will likely be addressed by new technologies and new techniques that will overcome the problems we now face.
The glass is either half empty or half full. I choose to believe it is half full. The history of the technological age we are in is that technology both creates unforeseen problems and then sets about solving them. My bet is on human ingenuity. Maybe the U.S. federal government was not capable of building a website to handle the traffic generated by the Obamacare deadline, but Amazon’s website copes pretty well with the massive traffic it generates in the days before Christmas. Maybe we can’t stop the sea waters from rising, but we can place our utility rooms on the second floor instead of the basement. As for agriculture and the food supply, it is always a bad idea to bet against the technology of food production.
I suspect we will survive, because we are not suicidal.
Like many, I’m sure, I’ve been much more familiar with the climate and energy policy preferences of Jeffrey Sachs, the institute’s director. The best recent representation of Sachs’s views is the paper he and others co-authored with James E. Hansen, the longtime NASA climate scientist who now has a climate policy position at Columbia, in which they build on Hansen’s longstanding call for a rising price on carbon.
To capture the full scope of thinking on this question, I think it’s important to consider Cohen’s ideas, too.
This is probably one of the most balanced climate science blogs out there, on a proverbial 'Net soup full of denialism and skeptics, even if some may be genuine, and with a fair share of needless pessimism and outright doomerism as the froth on top.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Sun Apr 13, 2014, 03:57 AM (14 replies)
Hey fellas. I've been looking at this setup for a while and it appears the Storm Prediction Center is starting to get a little cpncerned about the severe weather setup today. There is now a High Risk area including not only virtually the whole state of Indiana, but a good chunk of Ill. and western Ohio as well; the Moderate Risk area goes up thru most of the southern half of Lower Michigan, back out west to St. Louis and all the way out east as far as Buffalo, N.Y. and the Erie, Pa. area.
They were discussing the possibility of at least a few strong tornadoes as well as a widespread damaging wind(derecho?) event last night. Here's the Public Weather Outlook:
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
Scary stuff. Tornado warnings already out for parts for Ill. and Ind. and it's not even noon yet.....
Stay safe, everybody. It looks like this could be possibly as bad as the 11/9/02 event or even May 31st of this year, possibly.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Sun Nov 17, 2013, 12:57 PM (3 replies)
Source: BBC News, Washington
One of the brothers suspected of carrying out the Boston bombings was in possession of right-wing American literature in the run-up to the attack, BBC Panorama has learnt.
Tamerlan Tsarnaev subscribed to publications espousing white supremacy and government conspiracy theories.
He also had reading material on mass killings.
Until now the Tsarnaev brothers were widely perceived as just self-styled radical jihadists.
Panorama has spent months speaking exclusively with friends of the bombers to try to understand the roots of their radicalisation.'
The programme discovered that Tamerlan Tsarnaev possessed articles which argued that both 9/11 and the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing were government conspiracies.
Another in his possession was about "the rape of our gun rights".
Reading material he had about white supremacy commented that "Hitler had a point".
Tamerlan Tsarnaev also had literature which explored what motivated mass killings and noted how the perpetrators murdered and maimed calmly.
There was also material about US drones killing civilians, and about the plight of those still imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay.
Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23541341
Just found this via another site.....you remember the speculation that went around in the days right after the Boston bombings about possible far-rightist motivation? Well, it looks like it may very well have had some truth to it, after all.....gotta wonder how much deeper the rabbit hole goes, TBH.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Mon Aug 5, 2013, 09:39 PM (4 replies)
Andy Revkin posted this op-ed piece by Peter B. Kelemen last week, and I thought I'd show it to you.
Here’s a “Your Dot” contribution pushing back against apocalyptic depictions of the collision between humans and the climate system — written by Peter B. Kelemen, the Arthur D. Storke Professor and vice chair in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Kelemen has done a lot of interesting work on possible ways to capture carbon dioxide from air (none being easy or cheap):
And here's a little something from the end(emphasis mine):
This belief discourages constructive action, and can result in irrational acts by people in despair, individually, or as nations, willing to do anything to derail the juggernaut we are told is carrying us, inevitably, to destruction. Unlike environmental problems, it is less clear to me how we change this. But at least, those of us in science, social science and the media can seek to craft solutions and enlist engagement, rather than feeding fear. With hope comes action.
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Fri May 3, 2013, 12:58 AM (0 replies)
Source: The Guardian
Forecasts of global temperature rises over the past 15 years have proved remarkably accurate, new analysis of scientists’ modelling of climate change shows.
The debate around the accuracy of climate modelling and forecasting has been especially intense recently, due to suggestions that forecasts have exaggerated the warming observed so far – and therefore also the level warming that can be expected in the future. But the new research casts serious doubts on these claims, and should give a boost to confidence in scientific predictions of climate change.
The paper, published on Wednesday in the journal Nature Geoscience, explores the performance of a climate forecast based on data up to 1996 by comparing it with the actual temperatures observed since. The results show that scientists accurately predicted the warming experienced in the past decade, relative to the decade to 1996, to within a few hundredths of a degree.
The forecast, published in 1999 by Myles Allen and colleagues at Oxford University, was one of the first to combine complex computer simulations of the climate system with adjustments based on historical observations to produce both a most likely global mean warming and a range of uncertainty. It predicted that the decade ending in December 2012 would be a quarter of degree warmer than the decade ending in August 1996 – and this proved almost precisely correct.
Read more: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/03/27/climate-change-models-predict-remarkably-accurate-results/
Once again, the IPCC has proven to be largely correct in their findings & projections, as usual. Unfortunately, though, there's likely plenty of climate contrarians crying foul, as usual. And it's not just the deniers, either, by the way. We have doomer contrarians right here on this very website who keep promoting their own types of unsubstantiatable claims, which sometimes has as much twisting, misinterpreting, lack of understanding, willful ignorance, laziness, and/or even outright bullshitting put into it as their opposite numbers from people such as Monckton, Christy, et al., an example of which can be seen here:
(Edit: Thanks for all the recs, ladies and gentlemen. Unfortunately, it seems that a certain few of our resident contrarians have dedicated their time to spamming this thread. They just can't stand being wrong.)
Posted by AverageJoe90 | Wed Mar 27, 2013, 09:39 PM (84 replies)