Member since: Tue Nov 6, 2007, 08:55 AM
Number of posts: 1,227
Number of posts: 1,227
From Politcal Wire
October 24, 2012
Why Team Obama is So Confident
Mark Halperin: "Chicago remains sufficiently funded and emboldened by its own polling to compete for the final two weeks in all nine of the battlegrounds: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in the South; New Hampshire in the North; Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and Nevada and Colorado in the West. As they have in the past, Obama campaign officials say they expect to win a high percentage of those states and conceivably could sweep all nine."
"When pressed, the Obama officials with whom I met said that five of the nine stand out: Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. In that quintet, Democrats believe the combination of their current leads in polling, early voting (where applicable), and ground game makes their chances of winning even greater there than in the other four. And given the Electoral College math, unless Romney picks off one or more of those five states, Obama would win a minimum of 281 electoral votes and re-election."
As Greg Sargent notes, the polling averages show Obama leading in each of those states as well.
Posted by Dalai_1 | Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:18 PM (6 replies)
By Judd Legum on Oct 23, 2012 at 8:12 pm
A major cable provider is offering a notorious anti-Obama movie to all its subscribers for free. The company, Armstrong Cable, operates in six states including Pennsylvania and the critical swing state of Ohio. The move comes just days after the Armstrong’s Chairman of the Board donated tens of thousands of dollars to the Romney campaign and the Republican National Committee.
The film, “2016: Obama’s America,” has been widely panned by fact checkers. Written and narrated by conservative author Dinesh D’Souza, it claims Obama’s “worldview…was largely shaped by the anti-colonalist, anti-white and anti-Christian politics of Obama’s supposedly radical Kenyan father,” who was largely absent from his life. The point of the movie, according to a review in the Washington Post, is to convince viewers “that Obama hates America.” It was panned as “fear-mongering of the worst kind.”
Armstrong recently started offering the movie for free, on demand, to all of its subscribers.
An Armstrong executive confirmed to the Pittsburgh City Paper that “this is the first time the cable provider has offered such a deal for a recently released feature film.” Armstrong claims it will offer a free recently released film each month to encourage use of its premium on-demand offerings. But the company acknowledges no other recent releases are currently available without charge.
On September 21, just days before the promotion began, Armstrong Chairman Of The Board Jay Sedwick gave the maximum $5,000 to Mitt Romney’s campaign and an additional $25,000 to the Republican National Committee.
Armstrong cable is available in over 50 cities and towns in 10 Ohio counties. Analysts believe the outcome in Ohio may determine the outcome of the election. Most current polls in the state are within the margin of error.
Posted by Dalai_1 | Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:01 AM (6 replies)
We wrote last week that Democrats were seeing some strong absentee and early voting numbers in swing states in the first half of October.
Over the last week, though, there are signs that things are tightening.
The GOP is making strides in Iowa and Ohio, even as the information we have continues to suggest Democrats leading in those states.
And as voters head to the polls for the first days of in-person early voting in Nevada and North Carolina, the numbers in those states are looking a lot like they did four years ago.
See Charts and State explanation from Source:
Posted by Dalai_1 | Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:16 PM (6 replies)
President Obama +6 48%
Mitt Romney 42%
Posted by Dalai_1 | Sun Oct 21, 2012, 05:31 PM (15 replies)
By Gabriel Debenedetti
(Reuters) - In today's highly polarized political environment it is somewhat surprising to find voters who backed John McCain in 2008 and now support President Barack Obama, but they exist.
Roughly 5 percent of respondents in Reuters/Ipsos polls said they chose the Republican contender in 2008 and will switch to Obama in 2012. This number peaked at around 9 percent two separate times over the summer, according to data collected since January.
Who are these defectors?
Jeff Waltrip, 56, is a retired electrician and retail worker who has voted Republican all his life. But in his view Obama "has done a good job with what he was left with, and I truly believe that allowing Mitt Romney in there is going to make the world a whole lot worse than it is now." Waltrip said he liked the Republican ticket in 2008 because McCain is a veteran and because Sarah Palin "made me laugh."
The McCain-to-Obama switchers are 55 percent male, and 34 percent of them are 55 or older. (Overall, Obama trails Romney 34 percent to 52 percent among white men over 50.) About 72 percent of them are white.
They are largely from the East Coast; nearly 4 in 10 live in the mid- or South Atlantic. Nearly 3 in 10 finished their education after high school, and nearly 2 in 10 have a bachelor's degree.
Two-thirds say they are absolutely going to vote, choosing "10" on a 1-10 scale for likelihood of voting.
Even though 38 percent of all voters believe the economy is the election's most prominent issue, just one-third of the McCain defectors agree. Character matters more.
"Right now if I had to choose it would be Obama, because he's more personable," said William Holliday, a 58-year-old retiree from Convis Township, Michigan. "Romney has changed his position so many damn times, you don't know what he thinks at all. But they're both liars."
Holliday said that in general he leans Republican. "I did vote for McCain four years ago in spite of the fact he picked Palin. Because I thought that was a cheap trick he pulled there." He worries that if Romney is elected he will put "Cheney and Rumsfeld back in there to run the show."
Jeffrey Baker, 56, a retiree in Strong, Maine, thinks Romney's refusal to release his taxes disqualifies him. "If you can't be honest from the start, I don't want you in the Oval Office," he said. Romney, whose personal worth has been estimated at roughly $250 million, has faced criticism from Democrats for not releasing enough years' worth of his tax returns.
"Four years ago I voted for John McCain because I thought he was more experienced, and I thought we needed someone with some military background," Baker said. "Mitt Romney - I don't believe he has the experience that's needed. He's a businessman, he knows how to make money. That's all well and good, but we've got people to worry about."
Baker is unhappy with the entire campaign. "There's nothing going on. No information, no nothing," he said. "Everybody says they're going to do this, they're going to do that. But nobody says how they're going to do it."
He's basing his vote on a general sense that "Obama is more for the whole country than Romney is," alluding to the leaked video. "Romney, that's his honest feelings. He doesn't really care about the 47 percent."
Waltrip also believes Romney is out of touch with lower-income Americans, and he mistrusts the candidate's religious convictions.
"I've always felt like the Mormon Church was more of a cult," Waltrip said. "I'm sort of afraid that his interests are going to be strictly for the Mormon Church."
Overall about 34 percent of likely voters said they would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate if he or she were Mormon, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted during the week ending October 21.
The defectors to Obama remain a smaller subset of respondents than those who voted for him in 2008 and now support Romney. The Reuters/Ipsos polling shows 10 percent of voters plan to cross the aisle in that direction.
The Reuters/Ipsos database is now public and searchable here: http://elections.reuters.com/#poll
(Editing by Prudence Crowther)
Posted by Dalai_1 | Sun Oct 21, 2012, 11:27 AM (0 replies)
By JENNIFER EPSTEIN | 10/20/12 7:15 PM EDT Politico
The Obama administration is denying a report that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks that could be a last-chance opportunity to avoid war over Iran's nuclear program.
Citing senior administration officials, The New York Times reported Sunday that Iranian officials have agreed to negotiations, but not until after the presidential election, so that they know whether they're negotiating with President Obama or Mitt Romney.
But National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor offered a denial.
"It’s not true that the United States and Iran have agreed to one-on-one talks or any meeting after the American elections," he said in a statement.
"We continue to work with the P-5 on a diplomatic solution and have said from the outset that we would be prepared to meet bilaterally. The president has made clear that he will prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and we will do what we must to achieve that. It has always been our goal for sanctions to pressure Iran to come in line with its obligations. The onus is on the Iranians to do so, otherwise they will continue to face crippling sanctions and increased pressure."
The Times report came barely more than 48 hours before the presidential candidates prepare to take the stage for their third and final debate, which will focus on foreign policy. Signs that Iran is willing to negotiate on its nuclear program could be helpful to Obama, who has long favored a diplomatic resolution to tensions with Iran and has implemented new sanctions aimed at forcing Tehran into negotiations.
Posted by Dalai_1 | Sat Oct 20, 2012, 06:30 PM (2 replies)
Posted by Dalai_1 | Sat Oct 20, 2012, 06:26 PM (0 replies)
One of my favorite movies of all time is Frank Capra's “It's A Wonderful Life,” starring Jimmy Stewart. In the film, Stewart's character, a despondent and near suicidal George Bailey, who runs a small savings and loan in the town of Bedford Falls, is given a gift: the chance to see what his town would be like if he'd never been born — if he'd never extended a helping hand to his neighbors when they needed it most, never helped his community understand how much they depended upon one another.
In this alternative vision, the town's plutocratic banker, Mr. Potter — without the decent George Bailey to counter him — rules everything. A bottom-line-is-everything, every-man-for-himself mentality runs unchecked, resulting in Bedford Falls' metamorphosis into “Pottersville,” an amoral, soulless place.
The movie has a happy ending, thank goodness, but its themes endure to this day and echo in the current presidential election, which at its core asks the question: What kind of country are we? Are we Bedford Falls or Pottersville? Are we all in this together — and stronger and better because of it — or are we entirely on our own, with a few “makers” on the top of a heap of “takers?”
I'm supporting President Barack Obama because there is no question about his answer to that question. Having observed Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts, and then watching him in the Republican primaries as he tacked this way and that whenever it suited him (but mostly to the far right, the Tea Party radicals, even the birthers), I can't be sure of him.
As a student of American history, let me give some perspective. Much like Franklin Delano Roosevelt (one of the subjects of a new documentary series we are working on — if Romney doesn't get his way and PBS isn't eliminated), President Obama took office at a time when lax regulation of the financial industry had brought us to the brink of a complete collapse, creating an industry that needed nearly a trillion dollars in President Bush-authorized bailouts. He also inherited two off-the-books wars that had further ballooned our budget deficit, an auto industry on the verge of bankruptcy, and a loss of prestige in the international community.
Read More from Source:
Posted by Dalai_1 | Fri Oct 19, 2012, 03:10 PM (13 replies)
Sidwell Friends, the school where President Obama’s daughters Sasha and Malia attend, evacuated students and staff from its Wisconsin Avenue campus this morning following a phoned in threat. The details of the threat and whether it had any connection to the First Family daughters was not immediately available Thursday morning.
The following message was distributed through the school's emergency notification system around 11:30 a.m. today: “This is an emergency message from Sidwell Friends School. Due to a suspicious phone call, the buildings on the Wisconsin Avenue campus have been evacuated. We will notify you when further information is available.”
More updates as further information become available
Posted by Dalai_1 | Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:53 AM (16 replies)
President Obama up to 80%
rmoney down to 24%
Posted by Dalai_1 | Tue Oct 16, 2012, 08:40 PM (5 replies)