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Member since: Tue Nov 6, 2007, 09:55 AM
Number of posts: 1,147

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Inside Early Vote Numbers NC: Update by Jeremy Bird

Inside the early vote numbers: North Carolina
By Jeremy Bird, National Field Director on October 28, 2012


(Note Early registration and Early Vote)

Nate Silver

Five Thirty Eight
October 27, 2012, 5:16 PM

October 26 State Poll Averages Usually call Election Right

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.


A retweet said@fivethirtyeight, a very good poker player, doubles down

Rattner to Ohio for President Obama

Burns and Haberman
By MAGGIE HABERMAN | 10/27/12 8:40 PM EDT

This should be interesting.

Former "car czar" Steve Rattner is heading to Ohio tomorrow as a surrogate for President Obama, a source familiar with the trip said.
The source didn't immediately know the specifics of where in the state Rattner, who is now a frequent MSNBC commentator, will be and at which events.

But it underscores the emphasis the campaign is placing on the auto bailout.
Obama campaign aides did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
* This post has been updated



Interactive Map of Newspaper Endorsements from Across the Nation


Ohio is not a Toss Up Nate Silver

October 27, 2012
Taegan Goddard's Politcal Wire

Ohio Is Not a Toss Up
Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio -- made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days -- and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

"There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election."


New Poll shows President Obama with Small Lead NC

News Observer Blog
Submitted by robchristensen on 2012-10-26 13:05

A new poll by a Democratic leaning group shows President Barack Obama up 47-43 over Republican Mitt Romney in North Carolina.
The survey was conducted by Grove Insight Oct. 23-24. It was commissioned by Project New America, a Colorado based group.
It is the third poll released this week that shows North Carolina is still up for grabs. A survey commissioned by the Civitas Institute found Romney leading Obama by 48-47 percent margin. A poll by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic leaning firm found the race in the state tied at 48.

The Grove Insight survey found that Obama's growing lead can be attributed to a shift to him by women voters.
The poll surveyed 500 likely voters using live interviewers and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.


Top Corporate Tax Dodgers/Job Destroyers Bernie Sanders (Pdf)

I will certainly rethink some of my subscriptions and contracts!

This is obscene!


N C State Board of Elections Announces Closing of Polling Locations Due To Hurricane

Hurricane Sandy One Stop Location Emergency Closings


Please see Rose's post below for counties that are involved

Senator Harry Reid taken to hospital following Motorcade Accident

Updated: Oct 26, 2012 4:49 PM EDT
Posted By Josh Mabry, Continuous News Manager - email

A view of the accident scene. (FOX5)

Sen. Harry Reid was transported to University Medical Center Friday after a highway accident involving multiple vehicles in his Las Vegas motorcade.

The crash happened at 1:10 p.m. Friday afternoon along North I-15 near Charleston. The accident involved two Metro vehicles, two Capital Police vehicles and two civilian vehicles, according to NHP.



David Axlerod: Trajectory of Race is Set

WASHINGTON -- The Obama campaign sees no major event that can now alter the trajectory of the election, the president's top adviser told The Huffington Post in an interview Thursday. And with President Barack Obama holding slim but discernable leads in several critical battleground states, there is a continued sense of confidence that a second term is in the offing.

"In my view we have got the lead and the ball and now it is a matter of executing the final ten days of the campaign," David Axelrod said in a telephone interview.

"Governor Romney profited from that first debate primarily by recouping those voters who he had lost in his dismal month of September when they had such an uninspired convention and when the 47 percent tape came out," Axelrod continued. "But that is all that happened. We've had two debates since. I haven't seen -- in the things that I have looked at -- I haven't seen momentum since that time. I think the race has settled in, and it has settled in with us with a small but durable and discernable lead in these battleground states both in the aggregate and individually. The question is how does he change that dynamic now? There is no big intervening event."

"I'm doubtful as to whether will be a defining event," he added.

The aura of cautious optimism is one that both campaigns are hoping to project, with each able to muster a slate of statistics to make their case. On Friday, for example, an ABC/Washington Post tracking poll showed movement towards Obama, with the contest settling in at 49 to 48 percent in favor of Romney. But that narrative turned just an hour later, when the Gallup tracking poll showed Romney expanding his lead to a five-point margin among likely voters, at 51 to 46 percent.

Axelrod and others in the Obama campaign see all this as largely irrelevant noise. For them, the electoral landscape has always been defined by certain states. And the campaign's entire operation -- a massive, expensive Get Out The Vote enterprise -- has been constructed to work within these confines.

Prior experience is the Obama campaign's not-so-secret weapon. In 2008, they had to put a ground game together in a matter of months. They've been building for this election over the course of five years. And while the Romney campaign has made major progress from where Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) left off in 2008, there is a benefit to having this be your second rodeo.
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