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stevenleser

Profile Information

Name: Steven Leser
Gender: Male
Hometown: New York, NY
Home country: USA
Current location: NYC
Member since: Tue Jan 4, 2005, 05:36 PM
Number of posts: 29,505

Journal Archives

Final Nate Silver/538 analysis of Iowa caucuses points to a Clinton victory

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 79% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

No voter registration surge has happened in Iowa this season like it did in 2008

Forgive the NR Review link and cite but it is what it is:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430546/iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-vs-ted-cruz-turnout-key

Democratic caucus turnout jumped from roughly 124,000 in 2004 to nearly 240,000 in 2008, thanks to Barack Obama’s ability to new participants to the process. But in that case, the massive spike was predicted by an enormous increase in voter registration, from roughly 533,000 registered Democrats in 2004 to more than 606,000 four years later.


------------------------------------
However...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/29/upshot/surge-for-sanders-or-trump-in-iowa-voter-registration-doesnt-suggest-it.html?_r=0

Voter Registration Doesn’t Point to Huge Iowa Surge

Most striking is the relatively slow increase in the number of voters registered as Democrats, far slower than it was ahead of the 2008 caucus. The increase for Democrats this year looks much more like the increase for Republicans ahead of the 2012 contest.

The increase in registration among Republicans in recent months looks much healthier in comparison, and could be consistent with a higher turnout than in recent cycles.

Over all, new voter registration is not only falling short of the big registration surge of the 2008 cycle, but is also running just slightly ahead of the increase before the 2012 caucuses, which was competitive only on the Republican side.

A lower turnout could spell trouble for candidates like Mr. Sanders and Mr. Trump.

The latest voter registration statistics for Iowa, through early January, show that the number of registered voters increased by only about 10,000 voters over the last few months.

xPost from LGBT: Homophobic Harlem Pastor's Church up for Auction over Unpaid Debts

Best news I've heard this week!

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20160128/central-harlem/homophobic-pastors-harlem-church-up-for-public-auction-over-unpaid-debts



HARLEM — The church that thinks "Jesus would stone homos" is scheduled to be put up for public auction next month because its pastor hasn’t paid his debts.

A state judge ordered Atlah Worldwide Church to be sold at a public foreclosure auction after failing to pay creditors more than $1.02 million, court records show.

The Rev. James Manning said in a phone conversation with DNAinfo New York that the foreclosure was mostly over unpaid water and sewage bills and vowed to fight the order, claiming his church’s tax exempt status means he doesn’t have to pay.

“I assure you, it’s about a water bill and a tax that can’t be levied against this church,” Manning said. “I think it’s a land grab quite frankly.”

Homophobic Harlem Pastor's Church up for Auction over Unpaid Debts

Best news I've heard this week!

https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20160128/central-harlem/homophobic-pastors-harlem-church-up-for-public-auction-over-unpaid-debts



HARLEM — The church that thinks "Jesus would stone homos" is scheduled to be put up for public auction next month because its pastor hasn’t paid his debts.

A state judge ordered Atlah Worldwide Church to be sold at a public foreclosure auction after failing to pay creditors more than $1.02 million, court records show.

The Rev. James Manning said in a phone conversation with DNAinfo New York that the foreclosure was mostly over unpaid water and sewage bills and vowed to fight the order, claiming his church’s tax exempt status means he doesn’t have to pay.

“I assure you, it’s about a water bill and a tax that can’t be levied against this church,” Manning said. “I think it’s a land grab quite frankly.”

-------------------------
It's over, "Rev".

I think it should take fewer hidden posts to temporarily stop posting privileges if you arent a paid

member. Paid/contributing members are invested in the success of the website and I think the additional privilege is appropriate.

And I think the algorithm is already built into DU. If your chance of serving on a jury goes to zero, you lose posting privileges. I know there are other things that figure into that algorithm and that's fine. A contributing member who posts frequently would then get the benefit of the five hides and others would get less than that.

#YallQaeda / #VanillaISIS / #YokelHaram in Oregon have a new flag:

‪#‎YallQaeda‬ ‪/ #‎VanillaISIS‬ waging #YeeHawd to make a #Cattlephate and are running into some

issues...

http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/oregon-terrorists-dont-plan-siege-very-well-put-out-plea-for-snacks-and-supplies--ZJglh9sRjx



Oregon 'terrorists' don't plan siege very well, put out plea for snacks and supplies

-----------------------------------------------------

Can you spare some beef jerky for #YeeHawd?

I guess BLM is officially a good organization again?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=969907

Anyone else have technical difficulties after the last commercial break? The debate came back

in the middle of Bernie's closing statement.

Did this happen to anyone else? Might have just been TWC here in NYC.

PPP Iowa Poll has Hillary up 18 points

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_121515.pdf

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s
at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with
younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage
with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and
22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women
(21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19
while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.
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