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Member since: Fri Nov 12, 2004, 08:39 AM
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Josh Marshall: Clinton Polling Lead "No Longer a Bounce"


No Longer a Bounce
Josh MarshallAUGUST 8, 2016

The conventional wisdom is that you don't really know the impact of the conventions until everything settles out a week or two after the second convention. We're coming up on that threshold. And as you can see from the trend chart going back to July 1st, this is no longer just a bounce.

At the risk of stating the obvious, a bounce is something that goes up and then comes down, at least part of the way back down. But Clinton's trend line continues to rise.

Here's the key thing to keep in mind.

Historically, once the tumult of the conventions has settled, the polls tend to be fairly stable. There's sometimes a closing toward the end. Gore caught up with Bush at the end of the 2000 race. But again, people seem to make basic decisions during the conventions and they're usually hard to dislodge. That seems especially the case when the margin is substantial.

We're coming up on that period for Trump.


Roger Ailes Used Fox News Budget to Finance ‘Black Room’ Campaigns Against His Enemies


so @gabrielsherman has confirmed that roger ailes spent news corp $ surveiling him, me, and @hamiltonnolan


Roger Ailes Used Fox News Budget to Finance ‘Black Room’ Campaigns Against His Enemies

August 7, 2016 6:30 a.m.

By Gabriel Sherman

- snip -

But with Ailes gone, Fox executives are now looking closely at how Ailes spent Fox money. And what they are discovering is that, beyond the sexual harassment claims, Ailes was also able to use portions of the Fox budget to hire consultants, political operatives, and private detectives that reported only to him, according to a senior Fox source. Last week, according to the source, Fox News dismissed five consultants whom Ailes had hired to do work that was more about advancing his own agenda than Fox’s. One of the consultants, Bert Solivan, ran negative PR campaigns against Ailes’s personal and political enemies out of Fox News headquarters, a source said. A Fox News spokesperson confirmed: “Solivan was recently informed that his services were no longer needed.” Solivan, who had previously worked for Fox News as a general manager of the channel’s website, did not respond to requests for comment.

According to one highly-placed source, Solivan worked out of what Fox insiders called “the Black Room,” an operation Ailes established around 2011 to conduct PR and surveillance campaigns against people he targeted both inside and outside the company. The “Black Room” was located on the 14th floor of the News Corp building at 1211 Avenue of the Americas, a quiet part of the office that housed Fox News Latino and some marketing and promotions employees. Fox employees Ken LaCorte and Jim Pinkerton, veteran political operatives who’ve worked with Ailes since the 1980s, also worked with Solivan, the source said, adding that Ailes’s personal lawyer, and Fox contributor, Peter Johnson Jr. advised the team. (In an email, Peter Johnson denied any involvement in “Black Room” campaigns, saying, “The only online campaign I’m aware of is yours attempting to create a truth from a fiction with this account.”)

Targets of the campaigns included journalists John Cook and Hamilton Nolan, who have aggressively covered Ailes for Gawker. According to one source, private detectives followed Cook around his Brooklyn neighborhood and Fox operatives prepared a report on him with information they intended to leak to blogs. (According to the source, one proposed line of attack claimed that Cook — whose wife, Slate news director Allison Benedikt, is Jewish — was anti-Semitic.) “I’m honored to be among Roger Ailes’s enemies,” Cook said.

Fox operatives also targeted Joe Lindsley, the former editor of Ailes’s local newspaper The Putnam County News & Recorder. In April 2011, Lindsley had a falling out with Ailes and quit the paper along with two co-workers. Ailes assigned private investigators to follow Lindsley around Putnam County. He also asked Fox host Andrea Tantaros, whom Ailes had once seated next to Lindsley at a dinner party at Ailes’s home, to contact Lindsley and report back on his whereabouts, two sources said. Meanwhile, Solivan posted negative comments about Lindsley on blogs, a source said.


MUST-READ: Amazing Tweetstorm by Jeb Bush's National Security Adviser About Trump


BECCA ANDREWS AUG. 3, 2016 1:29 PM

The former national security adviser for both Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney let loose this morning on the irresponsibility of giving Donald Trump the keys to nuclear warfare. John Noonan, a devout #NeverTrumper who is now a national security analyst and commentator, tweeted that electing Trump as president has consequences that threaten global peace.

Read his take below:


President Obama commutes sentences of 214 people, most issued by president in single day since 1900

Source: NBC News / Buzzfeed

@BreakingNews: President Obama commutes sentences of 214 people, most issued by president in single day since 1900 - BuzzFeed News https://t.co/ch88VFG0Bv/s/3e2P

Obama Commutes Sentences Of More Than 200 People Serving Federal Sentences

“We’re going to keep our foot on the gas pedal when it comes to reviewing applications for clemency,” White House counsel Neil Eggleston says. President Obama has now commuted the sentences of 562 people.

Originally posted on August 3, 2016, at 1:30 p.m.
Updated on August 3, 2016, at 1:41 p.m.

Chris Geidner
BuzzFeed News Reporter
WASHINGTON — President Obama commuted the sentences of 214 people serving federal sentences on Wednesday — the most commutations issued by a president in a single day since at least 1900 — White House officials told BuzzFeed News.

The commutations are the latest in a series of such reprieves issued by Obama after announcing his support in 2014 for a clemency review process to address those serving harsh sentences that they would not be subject to if convicted today. The Clemency Project has led Obama to to grant a series of such commutations beginning in July 2015.

"This is a good day — not just for the 214 individuals who are getting a hard-earned second chance, but for the people at the White House and the Department of Justice and at advocacy organizations across the country who work every day to remedy injustices in our sentencing laws,” White House counsel Neil Eggleston told BuzzFeed News. “We're going to keep our foot on the gas pedal when it comes to reviewing applications for clemency, but we are also going to need leaders in both parties in Congress to pass long overdue reforms to our criminal justice system to achieve lasting change on the scale that is needed."

Sixty-seven of Wednesday's commutations are for people serving life sentences – almost all, per the White House, for nonviolent drug crimes. A quick review of the full list of commutations provided to BuzzFeed News appears to show that the same holds true for the vast majority of the underlying offenses involved in the other commutations as well.

Read more: https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/obama-commutes-sentences-of-more-than-200-people-serving-fed?utm_term=.kyovoyPLE#.fl8gbJ0ZP

Just noticed election.princeton.edu, an election forecast site, uses the term "Trump-safe" state...

Let that sink in for a moment. There are Trump-safe states.

By the way, they are as good as, if not better than, 538: http://election.princeton.edu

Newsweek Cover Story: Donald Trump's Many Business Failures, Explained



ON 8/2/16 AT 6:10 AM


- snip -

Lost contracts, bankruptcies, defaults, deceptions and indifference to investors—Trump’s business career is a long, long list of such troubles, according to regulatory, corporate and court records, as well as sworn testimony and government investigative reports. Call it the art of the bad deal, one created by the arrogance and recklessness of a businessman whose main talent is self-promotion.

He is also pretty good at self-deception, and plain old deception. Trump is willing to claim success even when it is not there, according to his own statements. “I’m just telling you, you wouldn’t say that you're failing,” he said in a 2007 deposition when asked to explain why he would give an upbeat assessment of his business even if it was in trouble. “If somebody said, ‘How you doing?’ you're going to say you're doing good.” Perhaps such dissembling is fine in polite cocktail party conversation, but in the business world it’s called lying.

And while Trump is quick to boast that his purported billions prove his business acumen, his net worth is almost unknowable given the loose standards and numerous outright misrepresentations he has made over the years. In that 2007 deposition, Trump said he based estimates of his net worth at times on “psychology” and “my own feelings.” But those feelings are often wrong—in 2004, he presented unaudited financials to Deutsche Bank while seeking a loan, claiming he was worth $3.5 billion. The bank concluded Trump was, to say the least, puffing; it put his net worth at $788 million, records show. (Trump personally guaranteed $40 million of the loan to his company, so Deutsche coughed up the money. He later defaulted on that commitment.)

Trump’s many misrepresentations of his successes and his failures matter—a lot. As a man who has never held so much as a city council seat, there is little voters can examine to determine if he is competent to hold office. He has no voting record and presents few details about specific policies. Instead, he sells himself as qualified to run the country because he is a businessman who knows how to get things done, and his financial dealings are the only part of his background available to assess his competence to lead the country. And while Trump has had a few successes in business, most of his ventures have been disasters.


AP sources: CEO at Democratic National Committee Resigns (Amy Dacey)

Source: Associated Press

AP sources: CEO at Democratic National Committee Resigns

Aug. 2, 2016 12:54 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The chief executive of the Democratic National Committee has resigned in the wake of an email hack that embarrassed the party on the eve of its convention.

That's according to three Democratic strategists familiar with Amy Dacey's decision to leave her job. The people spoke on condition of anonymity, because they were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

The Democrats say other personnel moves at the party are also expected Tuesday.

The content of the hacked emails exposed an apparent lack of neutrality in the primary race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, with party officials disparaging Sanders.

Read more: http://bigstory.ap.org/f7ebd00c63fa43169ec9b7609fe851f3

Fred Tomlinson, Singer, Songwriter on Monty Python, Dies ("Lumberjack Song," Vikings Spam)

Source: Telegraph UK

Fred Tomlinson, Singer, Songwriter on Monty Python - Obituary

2 AUGUST 2016 • 5:24PM

Fred Tomlinson, who has died aged 88, was the founder and leader of the Fred Tomlinson Singers, who provided vocals for Monty Python’s Flying Circus, The Two Ronnies and other television shows.

For some 20 years from the late 1960s Tomlinson’s singing, playing, arranging, compositional and even whistling skills were frequently called upon for musical items in television programmes.

Among other things he co-wrote the Python team’s Lumberjack Song (his singers played the Mounties in the original sketch and the Vikings singing Spam! Wonderful Spam! in another famous skit) and had a starring role as a soloist on The Two Ronnies in the St Botolph Country Dance Team’s rendition of Bold Sir John. It was often left to Tomlinson to complete other people’s musical ideas. The comedians and script writers would come up with suggestions for a musical sketch and then say: “We’ll leave the rest to Fred.”

Tomlinson did not confine his musical interests to the popular field and, as a bass singer, was often roped in as a last minute “stiffener” by amateur choral groups. He did much work for John McCarthy and the Ambrosians, a vocal ensemble which performed at concerts and operas, as well as in musicals, films and television.

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2016/08/02/fred-tomlinson-singer-on-monty-python--obituary/

"Among other things he co-wrote the Python team’s Lumberjack Song (his singers played the Mounties in the original sketch and the Vikings singing Spam! Wonderful Spam! in another famous skit)"

Paul Krugman Coins Term for Trump Behavior When Beginning to Realize for Sure He Will Lose:

'Derp Spiral'

Paul Krugman ‏@paulkrugman 3m3 minutes ago
Aha! I think I have the term for what happens to Trump if (when) he finds himself ever more likely to lose: he will go into a derp spiral.

Nate Silver: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s


AUG 1, 2016 AT 11:35 AM

Election Update: Clinton’s Bounce Appears Bigger Than Trump’s

By Nate Silver

Filed under 2016 Election
Initial polls conducted after the Democratic National Convention suggest that Hillary Clinton has received a convention bounce. In fact, it appears likely that Clinton’s bounce will exceed Donald Trump’s, which measured at 3 to 4 percentage points. Thus, Clinton will potentially exit the conventions in a stronger position than she entered them, perhaps also making up for some of the ground she lost to Trump earlier in July. This is good news for Clinton, but we’ll need to wait a few weeks to see if she can sustain her bounce before we can conclude that the race has been fundamentally changed.

Before we continue, a quick note or two about terminology. When we refer to a candidate’s “bounce,” we mean the net gain in her standing in the polls, including changes to her opponent’s vote share. For example, if the previous XYZ News poll had it Clinton 42 percent, Trump 40 percent, and their new poll has it Clinton 44, Trump 39, we’d call that a 3-point bounce for Clinton, since Clinton gained 2 percentage points and Trump lost 1 point.1

Also, when evaluating the gains a candidate has made, it’s important to note when the previous poll was conducted. Based on our models, Clinton led by 6 to 7 percentage points throughout most of June, but her lead dissipated to around 3 percentage points by mid- to late July, just before the conventions. Then, after the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Trump pulled into an approximate tie with Clinton. It’s those post-RNC polls that make for the best comparison when describing Clinton’s bounce.

So far, however, the post-convention polls have been strong enough for Clinton that there isn’t a lot of need to worry about semantics. They suggest that she possibly holds a lead over Trump in the mid- to high single digits, instead of being tied with him. Here are the fully post-convention polls we’ve seen so far:

- A CBS News poll has Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points, in the version of the poll that includes third-party candidates (which is the version FiveThirtyEight uses). Trump led Clinton by 1 point in a CBS News poll conducted just after the RNC, so that would count as a 6-point bounce for Clinton.

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