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New Nate Silver: "...this won’t be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue."


November 8, 2012, 4:15 PMComment

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage


Two more presidential elections, 2016 and 2020, will be contested under the current Electoral College configuration, which gave Barack Obama a second term on Tuesday. This year’s results suggest that this could put Republicans at a structural disadvantage.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the returns, Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College. The last Republican to accomplish that was George H.W. Bush, in 1988. In the table below, I have arranged the 50 states and the District of Columbia from the most Democratic to the most Republican, based on their preliminary results from Tuesday. Along the way, I have counted up the number of electoral votes for the Democratic candidate, starting at zero and going up to 538 as he wins progressively more difficult states.

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Had the popular vote been a tie – assuming that the margin in each state shifted uniformly – he would still have won re-election with 285 electoral votes, carrying Colorado and Virginia, although losing Florida and Ohio.

In fact, had Mr. Romney won the popular vote by two percentage points, Mr. Obama would still have won the Electoral College, losing Virginia but holding onto Colorado.

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If the parties continue down the same paths, however, this won’t be the last election when most of the swing states turn blue.


Reuters Analysis: Obama May Now Seek to Make Deeper Mark on High Court


Analysis: Obama may now seek to make deeper mark on high court

WASHINGTON | Thu Nov 8, 2012 1:03am EST

By Joan Biskupic

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's election victory on Tuesday may give him the opportunity to deepen his liberal imprint on the U.S. Supreme Court.

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With his re-election, the retirement of one or more justices in the next four years could preserve the present ideological balance or, more significantly, move the bench to the left.

The court's nine justices are selected for life and their appointments can rank among a president's most enduring legacies.

Four are in their 70s. Two - Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 79, and Stephen Breyer, 74 - are liberals. Two - Antonin Scalia and Anthony Kennedy, both 76 - are conservatives. The biggest shake-up would come if either of the last two stepped down.

A swing in the liberal direction could foster a new receptiveness to campaign finance regulation. The five-justice conservative majority, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, has ruled against such regulation, most notably in the 2010 Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission dispute.


BRILLIANT Rachel Maddow: "Republicans, Return to the World of Facts"


Maddow asks Republicans to return to the world of facts

By Eric W. Dolan
Wednesday, November 7, 2012 23:43 EST

Reviewing the results of the 2012 elections, MSNBC host Rachel Maddow predicted Republicans would need to “pop the factual bubble” that they were living in.

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“Republicans and conservatives really believed this stuff,” Maddow remarked. “I mean, they were talking each other into it, a little bit, but it is not like they were faking it. They were so, so, so sure they would win. They were so sure that these polls must be wrong, and that they must be right. And when the real math of the real world came barreling out of the dark at them last night, they hid from it, they could not believe it.”

But Obama really won, Maddow said. “And he really was born in Hawaii, and he really is legitimately President of the United States, again, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make up a fake unemployment rate last month, and the Congressional Research Service really can find no evidence that cutting taxes on rich people grows the economy, and the polls were not screwed to oversample Democrats, and Nate Silver was not making up fake projections about the election to make conservatives feel bad, Nate Silver was doing math, and climate change is real, and rape really does cause pregnancy sometimes, and evolution is a thing, and benghazi was an attack on us, it was not a scandal by us, and nobody is taking away anyone’s guns, and taxes have not gone up, and the deficit is dropping, actually, and saddam hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction, and the moon landing was real, and FEMA is not building concentration camps, and you UN election observers are not taking over Texas, and moderate reforms of the regulations on the insurance industry and the financial services industry in this country are not the same thing as communism.”

Maddow pleaded with Republicans to accept the “actual, lived truth of the world” instead of believing whatever made them feel good. The liberal MSNBC host said it was important for the country to have a two-party system where both parties had good, albeit different, ideas on how to manage the government.


5 Unhinged Right-Wing Reactions to Romney’s Defeat


Election 2012 AlterNet / By Laura Gottesdiener

5 Unhinged Right-Wing Reactions to Romney’s Defeat

As the nation celebrates Obama's election, some far right wingers are lashing out.

November 7, 2012 | After the big night, much of the country is celebrating another four years. But some are struggling to cope with the loss of their candidate. Perhaps they should consider mourning outside of the eye of the public.

1. Melodramatic Social Media Users Declare “America died”

In case you were preoccupied with the news of the presidential election, you may have missed the other breaking news story that “America died” last night. At least, that’s some of the wildly hyperbolic claims that were flying around the social media stratosphere last night, as Republican voters took to Twitter to mourn over their vanquished candidate.

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2. Fox News Blames the Media Bias

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All in all, it sounds like Fox News is mad at journalists for doing their jobs, but that should come as no surprise from a network that hasn’t embraced the same standards for journalistic integrity.

3. The National Review Claims Americans Are “Not Equipped” for Liberty

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4. Viva La Revolution!

Donald Trump was so incensed with the outcome of last night’s election that he called for a “revolution” and a massive march on Washington.


BREAKING: California Democrats Say Win Supermajority in California State Assembly

Source: Reuters

@Reuters: FLASH: California Democrats say win supermajority in California State Assembly

November 7, 2012

AM Alert: Supermajority? Not yet, but Dems can get the champagne ready the champagne
VIDEO: Dan Walters says the defeat of Proposition 31 "sets back the whole notion of reforming California's government," which he says the state needs.

They can't pour the champagne yet, but Democrats dreaming of controlling a supermajority of both legislative houses can unpack the bottle this morning.

Assembly Speaker John A. Perez declared Tuesday night that Democrats had secured two-thirds of the seats in the lower house, and trends in the Senate appeared to be following suit early this morning.

Entering Election Day needing two additional Senate seats to achieve a supermajority, Democrats were leading in four of five key districts: Fran Pavley led by 4 percentage points in District 27, with 97 percent of precincts counted; Richard Roth by 8 percentage points, District 31, 48 percent of precincts counted; Marty Block, 14 percentage points, District 39, 100 percent of precincts; and Hannah-Beth Jackson by 10 percentage points, District 19, 100 percent of precincts.

The key Senate race in which a Republican led early this morning was a nailbiter, with Bill Berryhill edging Cathleen Galgiani in a San Joaquin County-based district. The margin was 51 percent to 49 percent, with 100 percent of precincts counted.

The hard-fought, hotly contested 7th Congressional District race pitting Republican U.S. Rep. Dan Lungren against Democrat Ami Bera remains too close to call. Bera led 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, with 100 percent of precincts counted but numerous absentee and provisional ballots remaining to be tallied.

Read more: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/11/am-alert-california-democrats-legislature-supermajority.html

"Europe will be waking up this morning with a general sigh of relief."


7 November 2012
Last updated at 02:43 ET

Obama second term: What it means for the world

Now that President Obama has won re-election, what will a second term mean for US relations with other countries?


The BBC's Chris Morris in Brussels writes: Europe will be waking up this morning with a general sigh of relief. Opinion polls have always shown President Obama to be more popular than Governor Romney across the continent - but for most governments, too, continuity in Washington is better than a changing of the guard. The US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner - as well as the President himself - has been closely involved in discussions on the eurozone. The EU is so embroiled in its internal debates on the eurozone crisis that it doesn't want any external distractions.

The EU has also been working closely with the Obama administration on a variety of foreign policy issues - Iran in particular. Even if some of the key personnel change in a second Obama term, the President's victory means there will be no dramatic change of course for European capitals to deal with.


Both candidates were highly critical of China, taking Beijing to task over what they saw as the country's unfair trade practices”

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The BBC's Quentin Sommerville in Kabul writes: Much in Afghanistan is viewed now through the prism of the ending of the US-led combat mission here. A change in Commander-in Chief was unlikely to make much of a difference to American policy - there was little difference between the candidates, aside from Mitt Romney's claim that he would listen more to generals on the ground.

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Many in Iran were concerned that a Republican win would mean war, and believe a Barack Obama victory makes life safer for the people”

The BBC's Mohsen Asgari in Tehran writes: Many in Iran were concerned that a Republican win would mean war, and believe a Barack Obama victory makes life safer for the people, because the US will move quickly to set up a new round of talks over Iran's nuclear ambitions.


Minnesota's Gay Marriage Ban DEFEATED. That's a 4-0 Victory For Gay Marriage Supporters

Dave Weigel via Twitter.

Minnesota defeated ban.

Maryland approved gay marriage.

Maine approved gay marriage.

Washington state appears to be approving it.

10 Right-Wingers Who Got Election 2012 Hilariously Wrong


10 Right-Wingers Who Got Election 2012 Hilariously Wrong

Faith-based analysis doesn't cut it. Maybe in 2016, they'll read Nate Silver like normal people.

AlterNet / By Editorial Staff COMMENT NOW!
10 Right-Wingers Who Got Election 2012 Hilariously Wrong
Faith-based analysis doesn't cut it. Maybe in 2016, they'll read Nate Silver like normal people.
November 6, 2012 |

We really had a contest between the reality-based community, and a conservative movement that had convinced itself that Obama was so heinous that there was simply no way the American people could possibly re-elect him. Progressives read the polling averages, and read Nate Silver to stave off the anxiety created by a beltway media intent on making the race appear to be a toss-up. As conservatives slept, they dreamed of Ronald Reagan's electoral maps, all painted red, and a defeated, weak Democrat limping off the field of battle, chastened by Real America.

They say the only poll that counts is the final one. And it has revealed a number of conservative pundits – people who make their living gauging the state of the race – to be utterly clueless. So join us, as we take a tour of their wild swings-and-misses. Enjoy the Schadenfreude!

1. Michael Barone

You almost get the sense that Michael Barone, a relatively fact-based analyst, drew the short straw for this one .

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Barone then called all of the contested states except for Nevada for Mitt Romney.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

2. Peggy Noonan's Good Vibrations

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All the vibrations are right.

Oh, Peggy.

3. Karl Rove: Party ID


VIDEO: Nate Silver On How He Got It Right

Election Results 2012: Nate Silver on How He Got It Right

Published on Nov 6, 2012 by TheNewYorkTimes

Nate Silver and Megan Liberman discuss President Obama's re-election win.

NYTIMES VIDEO: Nate Silver On How He Got It Right

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