Trump's Speech Targeted a Certain Demographic on the Electoral College Map

I reviewed some of the key points of Donald Trump's speech, and there are certain themes that were embedded in that speech that were repeated throughout, including immigration (which was mentioned eight times), violence (mentioned 11 times), trade (mentioned 7 times), terrorism (mentioned five times), law and order (mentioned four times), safety (mentioned four times), trade deals (mentioned four times), and rigged (mentioned four times).

The certain demographic of voters that Trump is targeting are poorly educated, authoritarian, rustbelt and Midwestern voters that have lost what were formerly decent-wage, middle class jobs, due to outsourcing or offshoring that are looking for a scapegoat. They might not necessarily display overt bigotry or even agree 100% with Trump's message, but they understand that their nice union job at the auto plant, the auto supplier, the steel mill, etc., no longer exists, and they're looking for someone to save them from that.

They understand that the factory that they were formerly employed at is shut down. They understand that their dreams of being able to afford a home to raise their family may be in the balance because they're trying to survive on a service job where they make half of what they used to make. They drive to what used to be downtown in their small city or town and they see it boarded up, and they become hopeless. They see the ever-increasing cost of college tuition, and they feel as if their children are going to be shut out, completely. They remember when they felt they had a chance at the American dream, and now, it seems even harder and harder to attain.

They hear the word "trade deal" and they think about having to train other people for their job that is going to be shipped to China or India. They hear the word "HB Visa" and they think about the IT job that they lost because the company they worked for and the politicians that receive their campaign contributions passed laws making it easier for them to get similar labor at a cheaper cost by increasing the number of HB visas available. They call a customer service center and speak to someone that, in some cases, is not an American to resolve an issue of service, or an order they placed, or a question that they have for their very American household.

These are all simple concepts. These are the realities they have been forced to live. This is their experience with America over the last 30-40 years, and they're looking for someone to articulate those fears and offer cut and dry solutions. They're not interested in hearing about identity politics or how America will be great if it elects its first female president.

To be fair, these are the same people that don't have time to look at all of the union-busting legislation Republicans have passed year after year. They don't have the time to think about the tax cuts that have been passed that are virtually making them pay more of a percentage of their salary to the federal government than the CEO. They don't have the time to look at the records of votes in the House and Senate and what politicians voted on these issues.

These are the voters who are looking for answers. They link NAFTA with "my job was shipped overseas," and they see another trade deal coming down the pike (TPP) that may be just as disastrous. They don't have time to discuss the nuance of this legislation.

They understand that they see the American dream slipping from them more and more every day, and they want someone to blame and someone who hears them. To boot, they're seeing political unrest about police overreach and terrorist attacks (hence the phrases "law and order" and "immigration&quot , they may plug into Fox News every now and then, and they're being fed the narrative that a big reason for their losing is the hand of some "other," and they know that "politics as usual" will not cut it. They hear that there are more than 10 million people living in America illegally (without paying attention to how much in taxes these "illegal" immigrants are paying), and they compare it to their job loss, and they need someone to blame.

This is how xenophobia and scapegoating works. It doesn't need facts and statistics to support their biases. It doesn't need reasoned and nuanced discussion on whether a trade deal will be beneficial to them or their family. They don't want an honest discussion about police overreach and brutality.

When it comes down to it, they'll be listening for who agrees with the trade deals and who opposes them. Who gives them confirmation bias on what has to be done about those "others" to bring them back the job they lost (even though it will never come back due to globalization). Who stokes their fears and promises to "Make America Great Again."

... and they'll be viewing this within the context of what Washington, D.C. has done (its Senators and Congressmen) to alleviate these fears.

Do you know where these voters are located?

Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin

With the exception of Ohio and Iowa, Trump won all of these states in the Republican primary. Hillary lost Michigan and Wisconsin. With roughly 10% - 15% of the electorate still "undecided," don't ever think that appeals to bias, fear, xenophobia, and "law and order" rhetoric aren't effective tools. Just like there's economic populism that appeals to our better angels, there's also fascist populism which appeals to the worst in our electorate.

These were all tools that were employed in that speech and will be employed in this general election. Trump may be the biggest bigot on the planet, but he is a business man and he understands numbers. It's imperative that we do so, as well, and that we get out the vote and defeat him.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-republican-convention-2016-trump-trump-s-favorite-words-from-violence-1469154163-htmlstory.html