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Profile Information

Name: Steve
Gender: Male
Hometown: Florida
Home country: US
Current location: US
Member since: Sat Oct 16, 2004, 01:04 PM
Number of posts: 26,260

Journal Archives

California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming


From November 2013 - January 2014, a remarkably extreme jet stream pattern set up over North America, bringing the infamous "Polar Vortex" of cold air to the Midwest and Eastern U.S., and a "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of high pressure over California, which brought the worst winter drought conditions ever recorded to that state. A new study published this week in Geophysical Research Letters, led by Utah State scientist S.-Y. Simon Wang, found that this jet stream pattern was the most extreme on record, and likely could not have grown so extreme without the influence of human-caused global warming. The study concluded, “there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013-14, the associated drought and its intensity."

Figure 1. An extreme jet stream patten observed at 00 UTC on January 16, 2014. Color-coded wind speeds at a pressure of 300 mb (roughly 9,000 meters or 30,000 feet) show the axis of the jet stream over North America, with a large upside-down "U"-shaped ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. California is outlined in orange. The strongest winds of the jet stream (orange colors, 160 mph) were observed over the Northeast United States, where a strong "U"-shaped trough of low pressure was anchored. Image generated from the 00 UTC January 16, 2014 run of the GFS model, and plotted using our wundermap.

Using observations and a climate model to diagnose the human contribution to the jet stream pattern
The researchers studied the historical pressure patterns for November - January over North America during the period 1960 - 2014, and found that a strong "dipole" pattern of high pressure over Western North America and low pressure over Eastern North America, such as occurred during the winter of 2013 - 2014, tended to occur naturally during the winter immediately preceding an El Niño event. Since NOAA is giving a greater than 50% of an El Niño event occurring later in 2014, this past winter's dipole pattern may have been a natural expression of the evolving progression towards El Niño. The study also found that the dipole pattern could be intensified by two other natural resonances in the climate system: the Arctic Oscillation, and a variation of ocean temperatures and winds in the Western North Pacific called the Western North Pacific (WNP) pattern. But the dipole of high pressure over California combined with the "Polar Vortex" low pressure trough over Eastern North America during November 2013 - January 2014 was of unprecedented intensity, and extremes in this dipole pattern--both in the positive and negative sense--have been increasing since 2000 (the peak negative value occurred during the winter of 2009 - 2010.) The researchers used a climate model to look at whether human-caused climate change might be interfering with the natural pattern to cause this unusual behavior. They ran their climate model both with and without the human-caused change to the base state of the climate included, and found that they could not reproduce the increase in amplitude of the dipole pattern unless human-caused global warming was included. They concluded, "It is important to note that the dipole is projected to intensify, which implies that the periodic and inevitable droughts California will experience will exhibit more severity. The inference from this study is that the abnormal intensity of the winter ridge is traceable to human-induced warming but, more importantly, its development is potentially predicable." In an email to me, the lead author of the study, Simon Wang, emphasized that the opposite sign of the dipole--an extreme trough of low pressure over Western North American, combined with an extreme ridge of high pressure over Eastern North America--is also expected to be more intense when it occurs, leading to an increase in extremely wet winters in California.

more at link above

No storms in the tropics whatsoever


a small joy that made life happier, what's your small joy of the day ?

Yesterday I went to the optometrist. I got a NEW set of contact lenses. I had been limping along on ONE contact for a few weeks (ugh). My eyes have not gotten any worse. My eyes are healthy, albeit with nearsightedness and astigmatism. My blood pressure was the lowest I've seen it in years (105/70). I was able to pay the bill comfortably. I am fortunate to have health insurance that paid part of the bill.

All good news ! It made my life a bit happier. What's your small joy ?

SSR165 Type 41 - Destination (Ikerya Project Remix)

High wind warnings in eastern New Mexico

question about "25 year" 3M LED Advanced Light Bulb



I bought it yesterday for a light for my front door. The bold claim is 25 years. The small print is 27,500 hours, which is 3.14 years if run 24/7/365. I might use it for 5 minutes a day just to light my entry way, because I don't feel the need to have an outside light burning all night. 5 minutes a night = 1700 minutes a year roughly, or theoretically a lot more than 25 years if the bulb lasted that long.

25 years is marketing BS, correct ? Assuming normal weather conditions on a covered front porch (largely shielded from rain, hail, direct sunlight, etc), there is no way a light bulb could last that long, right ? FWIW, the light bulb is encased in a typical decorative light fixture housing (with small glass panes encasing the bulb) one would install by a front door. How many years can you expect ?

Thanks in advance, Steve

White House: The Economic Costs of Inaction on Immigration Reform


Teen arrested for Heartbleed bug attack on tax agency


A 19-year-old has been arrested in Canada for allegedly hacking into the country's tax collection agency using the Heartbleed bug.

The bug undermined encryption on some websites, allowing possible access to protected information.

It appears to be the first report of an attack exploiting a flaw in the encryption method known as OpenSSL. The Canada Revenue Agency(CRA) said this week that about 900 social insurance numbers and possibly other data had been compromised as a result of an attack on its site.

According to a statement from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Stephen Arthuro Solis-Reyes of London, Ontario was arrested on April 15 at his home: "It is believed that Solis-Reyes was able to extract private information held by the by exploiting the security vulnerability known as the Heartbleed Bug."

Europe to Florida in a kayak: Another bucket list check


(CNN) -- Olek Doba's slow, lonely kayak journey across the Atlantic Ocean is nearing an end this week.

Doba, 67, isn't making the record-setting transatlantic trip for money, but because it's on his bucket list, a friend waiting for his arrival in North America said.

He has no corporate sponsors. The only logo on his yellow 21-foot boat is the name of his hometown: Police, Poland. Doba is paying his own way with his retirement money saved during his career as an engineer, according to Piotr Chmielinski, a friend who helps with his logistics.

Doba began paddling the kayak, named Olo, in Lisbon, Portugal, last October with a goal of reaching the Florida coast more than 5,000 miles away. At a pace of about 30 miles a day, he hoped to get there in February. A broken rudder and unusual weather patterns slowed Doba, but he wasn't stopped.

Flood warnings/watches for ME, NH, VT, NY state, MA, MI and CT

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