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Member since: Fri Sep 17, 2004, 03:59 PM
Number of posts: 43,859

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NATE SILVER: “If pundits were on the ballot against, like, I don’t know, Ebola, I might vote Ebola"

New York Times polling guru Nate Silver told Stephen Colbert on Monday just what he thinks of political pundits. More than a few commentators have attacked Silver’s FiveThirtyEight election forecast for giving President Obama high odds in the lead-up to Election Day.

“I’m not very pro-pundit, I have to say” Silver said. “If pundits were on the ballot against, like, I don’t know, Ebola, I might vote Ebola, or third party.”

MSNBC host Joe Scarborough called Silver out recently over his election forecast, which currently places the odds of an Obama victory at around 90 percent. The FiveThirtyEight model, Silver said, is “not really that complicated, but people treat it like it’s Galileo or something, something totally heretical.”


Navy retiree voting for Mitt - The irony would cut him if he weren't so thick.

“I think Romney will win,” Kent Avery, 57, told TPM. A retired Navy
engineer, Avery said he would blame Americans who don’t want to take
care of themselves if Romney loses. “When people understand they can
vote for politicians who can give them something from the public trough,
they’ll keep doing that. That’s a great danger that we have enough
people that have that mindset.”


VOTE-Because someone wearing THIS button is Voting TOO

True The Vote Forged Signatures To Get Observers At Ohio Polls

Source: Plunderbund

True The Vote Forged Signatures To Get Observers At Ohio Polls
by Joseph on November 5, 2012 · 16 Comments

Yesterday we reported that True the Vote was attempting to place observers at precincts in Central Ohio, focusing on African American districts. We also noted that there might be some problems with the forms they submitted to the Franklin County Board of Elections (FCBOE).

The FCBOE met today and determined that True the Vote had likely falsified the forms submitted for general election observers. The new observer forms, filed over the past few days by True the Vote representative (and Hilliard Tea Party Member) Jan Loar, used candidate signatures copied from a previous set of forms filed in early October

All but one of the six candidates whose names appeared on the original form had withdrawn permission to use their signatures prior to the submission of today’s forms. During the BOE meeting Candidate Terri Jamison spoke up to say her name was “forged” on the latest round of forms.

The form for appointing observers reads ‘election falsification is a 5th degree felony’. Election officials have confirmed that there will be a post-election investigation of True the Vote.

Read more: http://www.plunderbund.com/2012/11/05/true-the-vote-forged-signatures-to-get-observers-at-ohio-polls/

Chris Matthews: Let Me Finish (Nov 5, 2012)


Michelle Obama to Floridians: 'Don't let anybody push you out of line'

Source: NBC

Michelle Obama to Floridians: 'Don't let anybody push you out of line'
By NBC's Jamie Novogrod


Almost 4.5 million people in Florida have already cast ballots, taking advantage of early and absentee voting opportunities here. The latest data from the Florida Secretary of State's office shows that Democrats have cast 1,915,630 votes – giving them a lead against Republicans, who have cast 1,747,977 votes.

But Michelle Obama warned that the president needs every vote he can get.

"Don't let anybody push you out of line," the first lady said, telling those who haven't voted yet to get to the polls early. "Don't let any delays deter you."

Michelle Obama was scheduled to appear later Monday with her husband in Des Moines, Iowa.

Read more: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/05/14952676-michelle-obama-to-floridians-dont-let-anybody-push-you-out-of-line?lite

Last Call at 538 - O:314.4 R:223.6, O:91.4% Chance to Win

MON NOV 05, 2012 AT 06:12 PM PST
Last Call at 538 - O:314.4 R:223.6, O1.4% Chance to Win
Nate Silver has the new numbers at 538 for the last day before the election.


Obama has a 91.4% chance to win.

Florida is only 55% chance of a Romney win.

via: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/05/1156411/-Last-Call-at-538-O-314-4-R-223-6-O-91-4-Chance-to-Win

TWEETY: His margin of victory will have emerged from his margin of guts.



(partial transcript, video link below)


If the president wins it will because all the people who benefited from what he had the guts and foresight to do stand up and do their part. He wins if those who despise racial and ethnic prejudice act wake tomorrow hearing those horrible words that have been called out angrily against this president.

They will vote because they know deep in their suffering souls that those words, that villainy that has been rained on the president – that he’s not legitimately one of us, that he’s not really an American, that he is “lazy,” that he does not really love this country, is not aimed at him alone.

Not by any means. This diatribe from that side is not aimed at one, lone man. Those words—”food stamps” and “welfare” and “lazy” and un-American and all the rest—have been handcrafted by history to destroy the rightful place in this country of too many good people to be counted. They will not stop from being spoken even if Obama wins to tomorrow. But let those words win tomorrow and you let those who spoke them win. And they will do it with more vehemence and all the more full-throatedness the next time and the next.

So tonight, I think of that word “if” because tomorrow, perhaps late tomorrow, it will be different. We will know who showed up and who didn’t. We will hear of the angry voter out to rid himself of Obama. The big “if” is whether we will hear the same of the young, the hopeful, the believers in a better country, a fair-er country, a country where opportunity is democratic and American, where justice is reachable, closer to reality because of what we—all of us—do tomorrow.


video & more:

In the morning 1) Do not — under any circumstances — turn on your television prior to 6pm.

Elecshun Dae
November 5, 2012

November 6, 152 years ago
My 25-point layman’s guide to getting your politics junkie on tomorrow:

In the morning

1) Do not — under any circumstances — turn on your television prior to 6pm. This isn’t specific to the morning, but it has to be first, because it’s absolutely crucial. The only thing worse than the election night coverage on the cable news networks is the election day coverage on the cable news networks. And trailing right behind those two things is the douchebag in your office who watched the Today show on election morning and is now repeating the same drivel outside your cubicle. Don’t be that guy.

In case you are tempted at any point in the day, I’ll save you the time by summing up the time-filling coverage for you here: worthless anecdotes about turnout; analysis of rainy weather forecasts that supposedly affect turnout but actually do not; “explanations” of the “science” of exit-polling and election prediction; interviews with senior citizens who voted at 11am in the Midwest; set pieces like “30 years ago this week” about past elections; meta-narratives about the President’s probable reaction to a 5-seat swing in the House vs. a 15-seat swing; exposés on campaign financing, voter turnout, and enthusiasm; editorials on what the election “means,” whether this is a “change” election, a “wave” election, or a “turnout” election; stories about the parties angling with teams of lawyers to oversee recounts; worries on the left and right about voter fraud and voter suppression; some blair-witch style youtube video showing something allegedly wrong; debates over whether this is 2004 or 1992 or neither; debates over divided government and gridlock; anecdotal profiles about who the independents are voting for; questions about why aren’t there more moderates; polemics on whether the Tea Party will play nice in DC during the lame-duck, whether the Tea Party will be a force in politics for much longer, and whether the Tea Party is actually a party; and 35 other things that could be studied with a rigorous methodology but instead will be delivered in the absence (or face of) data, and an equal number of things that should never be studied, period.

Did I mention this will all be delivered to you at a 4th grade comprehension level?



In the afternoon

8) Again, resist any and all temptation to turn the television on. For full explanation, see #1. But remember, they’ll be doing things like using a panel of “experts” to interview David Axelrod for three minutes about who he thinks is going to win the election. You’ve been warned.


10) Get your snack setup straight. This is tricky. It’s not a college football tailgate. It’s sure as hell not a dinner party. It’s not a BBQ. It’s not having people over for The Game. My suggestion is to go simple and traditional. That means, of course, pizza and beer. Fill in with pretzels or chips. The thing to stay away from is really messy food, since you’re going to want access to your laptop (see below) regularly. So probably stay away from salsa, or guacamole. And as much as it pains my upstate heart, wings are a big no-no. You also want a wonkcave configuration that’s amenable to eating and using a computer. You don’t have to go full-blown dork with TV trays and all that jazz, but figure something out ahead of time, so you aren’t sitting on a really deep couch, balancing your laptop and a plate of pizza on your knees.




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