HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » TomClash » Journal
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU
Page: 1 2 3 Next »

TomClash

Profile Information

Gender: Do not display
Member since: Sat Sep 4, 2004, 10:01 PM
Number of posts: 11,344

Journal Archives

Ezra Klein: The Nate Silver Backlash

Which brings me to the backlash against Nate Silver.

. . .

So before we deal with anything Silver has specifically said, itís worth taking in the surrounding landscape: Every major political betting market and every major forecasting tool is predicting an Obama victory right now, and for the same reason: Obama remains ahead in enough states that, unless the polls are systematically wrong, or they undergo a change unlike any weíve yet seen in the race, Obama will win the election.

Itís important to be clear about this: If Silverís model is hugely wrong ó if all the models are hugely wrong, and the betting markets are hugely wrong ó itís because the polls are wrong. Silverís model is, at this point, little more than a sophisticated form of poll aggregation.

But itís just as important to be clear about this: If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesnít mean Silverís model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. Thatís a pretty good chance! If you told me I had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars tomorrow, Iíd be excited. And if I won the money, I wouldnít turn around and tell you your information was wrong. Iíd still have no evidence Iíd ever had anything more than a 35 percent chance.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/


That 7 point RMoney lead in Gallup's Daily Tracking from a few days ago?

Down to 3.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Romney and his wife's dressage horse

Just got bayoneted.

"It's not a game of battleship"

Beautiful.

Just beautiful.

This is a foreign policy debate

Policy is foreign to RMoney.

Syria is Iran's route to the sea???

Huh??? Iran has over 1000 km of shoreline.

America's Media Just Made Vote-Rigging Easier by Victoria Collier

The news that America's mainstream media has cancelled exit polling in 19 states, means that insider election theft this November is now even harder to track, and therefore easier to get away with - something that scarcely seemed possible.

As I've written in the November issue of Harper's Magazine ("How to Rig an Election"), our voting system is already privatized, corporatized, computerized and arguably less secure than Vegas slot machines. It's also controlled by a shadowy cartel of right-wing affiliated companies that keep merging and changing their names, perhaps - and almost certainly in the case of Diebold - to avoid association with the record of white-collar criminal charges and convictions that trail them from state to state.

Precious few methods now remain for verifying results generated by these corporate "black box" touch-screen voting machines and optical scanners, which have been proven (ad nauseam) by experts to be vulnerable to insider rigging and outsider hacking. This evidence remains long unreported by the mainstream media, which ignore the kind of stories now broken weekly at the Brad Blog, like the latest White Hat hack of Diebold voting machines: In September, 2011, the Vulnerability Assessment Team at Argonne National Labs gained controlling access to the electronic votes within the machines using $20 in parts and the equivalent of an 8th grade science education.

. . .

The Red Shift has been detected in both state and federal American elections, where computerized vote totals have consistently "shifted" - often by a 5 percent to 7 percent margin disparity (sometimes less, but sometimes much greater) - in comparison to hand-counts and polling data. This mysterious seismic lurch invariably pushes votes to the right, and when the dust settles, it has inordinately benefitted GOP candidates and ballot issues.

To conceal these unnerving discrepancies that strongly suggest computerized vote rigging, exit pollsters began "adjusting" their final reported numbers - literally forcing polls at the end of Election Day to better align with the voting machine results.

Surprisingly, this is not a criminal or even covert act, but common knowledge amongst pollsters (though certainly not the American public) and accepted practice.

http://truth-out.org/news/item/12213-americas-media-just-made-vote-rigging-easier

Nate Silver on the Gallup Poll

October 18, 2012, 6:29 PM
Gallup vs. the World
By NATE SILVER

Gallup Performs Poorly When Out of Consensus

Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly.

You do not need to look any further than Gallupís track record over the past two election cycles to find a demonstration of this.

In 2008, the Gallup poll put Mr. Obama 11 points ahead of John McCain on the eve of that Novemberís election.

That was tied for Mr. Obamaís largest projected margin of victory among any of the 15 or so national polls that were released just in advance of the election. The average of polls put Mr. Obama up by about seven points.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/gallup-vs-the-world/

New Sports Analogy

President on the blocks, spins into the lane, drops the shoulder and takes it to the rack for the jam.

Sensata

Proof positive that Romney is . . . the Manchurian Candidate!

Go to Page: 1 2 3 Next »