HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Chichiri » Journal
Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next »

Chichiri

Profile Information

Member since: Sat Aug 21, 2004, 06:17 PM
Number of posts: 4,268

Journal Archives

STATE OF THE ELECTION - May 13, 2016

179 Days to Election Day

Here's where we start:



Solid colored states are 4-0 in the last four elections. Light colored states are 3-1. Gray states are 2-2. (It is worth noting that most of the gray states were, in chronological order, red-red-blue-blue.)

Assuming Hillary takes all solid blue states, she is 28 electoral votes short of victory. Possible routes to that number include:


* Ohio and Virginia.
* Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire.
* Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Mexico.
* Ohio, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
* Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.
* Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.
* Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
* Florida.


It will be a while before we start to see reliable matchup polls and overall forecasts. For one thing, while both parties now have a presumptive nominee, the primaries are still technically underway. For another, quite a bit could happen in the next 179 days. (One of the nominees could be struck by lightning. Or the Indictment Fairy could grant the wildest dreams of the few remaining Sanders hopefuls and cause legal trouble for Hillary. Or Trump could open his mouth and say something.)

So for the next few months, at least, these updates will be sporadic, sparse, and speculative. But we're now at the point where we can track the 2016 general election, and as the Clinton campaign has turned its main focus on that battle, so should we all.


Riddle of the Day
I ask no questions, but I demand answers. What am I?

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 20, 2016

48 Days to California.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,444, Sanders 1,207 (Clinton +237).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,946, Sanders 1,245 (Clinton +701).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 582 pledged delegates, 41.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 819 pledged delegates, 58.5% of remaining.


Latest Results: April 19

New York: Clinton 139, Sanders 108 (Clinton +31).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.
Versus Adjusted Targets: Clinton +20, Sanders -20.


Next Primary: April 26

CT, DE, MD, PA, RI: 384 delegates total.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 201, Clinton 183.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 221, Clinton 163.



Comments
Out of the month-long dark tunnel, into the bright sunshine!

Yesterday, before the New York election results came in, Nate Silver considered three possible scenarios for New York. If Bernie won by a few points, it would be, not merely a shitstorm, but a "shit hurricane." It would be a bigger upset than Michigan, and would signify real trouble for Hillary's campaign. If Hillary won by a few points, it would be a setback for Sanders, but he would get positive press coverage because he managed to set expectations so low. Lastly, if Hillary won by fifteen points, it would signal that Hillary will do well in states like Pennsylvania, and would make it almost impossible for Sanders to catch up.

Hillary won by sixteen points.

There's really not much need to spin these numbers, is there? 1,400 pledged delegates remain to be allocated, and Sanders needs 819 of them. If any numbers wonk knows of a way he can get them, he or she is awfully good at keeping it a secret.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I just can't picture myself taking selfies!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 19, 2016 (Big Apple Edition)

49 Days to California


Delegate Count



Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,305, Sanders 1,099 (Clinton +206).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,774, Sanders 1,130 (Clinton +644).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 721 pledged delegates, 43.8% of remaining.
Sanders needs 927 pledged delegates, 56.3% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: TODAY

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.



Comments
Where the hell have I been?

I started my new job this week. It would take a long time for me to explain what a big deal this is for me, and you have more important things to think about. Like New York! But as I said earlier, expect more sporadicity from SotP from now on.

Hillary is widely favored to win New York tonight -- which, Sanders fans will gleefully note, gives him a chance to pull off another Michigan. On the one hand, no one who's been paying attention can deny that Bernie's overall numbers are on the rise; had some earlier states voted today, she might not have done as well. (Or, considering the demographics, she might have; Nate Silver tried to run a retrogression, but there are just too many unknowns.) On the other hand, it's a closed primary in a state that loves Hillary.

Like you, I'm anxious to see how it will turn out. Keep your fingers crossed.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day

No wonder my geometry students were so tired; they were out of shape!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 16, 2016

52 Days to California, 3 Days to New York.


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
I was playing an MMO late last night and chatting to my guild mates, when I looked at the clock and realized it was 12:01 AM.

Me: Oh crap.

Them: What's wrong?

Me: It's my birthday.

Them: Happy birthday! How old are you now?

Me: Old enough to say "oh crap" when it's my birthday.

Them:

But enough about me: let's look at the Democratic electorate as a whole. Nate Silver (you see his name a lot around here, and for excellent reason) calculated that the Democratic vote for the upcoming general election will be 54% white, 24% black, 15% Hispanic, and 7% Asian or other races. The ten states whose voting demographics most closely match those numbers are, in order, New Jersey, Illinois, Florida, New York, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Maryland, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

Guess what. Of the seven of those ten states that have voted, Hillary won them all. Of the other three, Hillary is favored to win them.

So yeah. Sanders supporters mean well and all, but Hillary Clinton is the true face of the Democratic Party.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
When kissing a florist, tulips are better than one!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 15, 2016

53 Days to California, 4 Days to New York.


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
I've been looking at betting exchanges again this year. In 2012 I looked steadily at InTrade, which is now defunct; this year I'm looking at BetFair, which works differently; rather than percentage chance to win, it simply gives decimal odds.

Right now, the back/lay for Hillary to win is 1.10/1.11. That means if you want to bet a dollar that Hillary will win the nomination, the most any anti-Hillary person will give you is $1.10. And if you want to bet against Hillary winning, the least amount any pro-Hillary person will accept for their dollar if she wins is $1.11.

If you offer a higher amount, such as 5 bucks, the pro-Hillary crowd will snatch it up; they'll gladly take a 4-buck profit. If you offer less, such as $1.05, the pro-Hillary crowd will still take it -- but not while someone else is offering $1.10.

Meanwhile, the back/lay for Sanders is 10/12.5. You bet a dollar on Sanders winning the nomination, you get 10 if he wins. You bet against him and he wins, you lose $12.50.

Another way of looking at it is the standard ___-to-one format. The odds against Sanders are ten to one. The odds against Hillary are a scant 1.1 to one.

Yet another way to look at it is implied percentage, which can be obtained simply by taking the reciprocal of the decimal. One over 1.1 is 0.91, which means Hillary's implied chance of winning is 91%. One over ten, of course, is 10%; that's Sanders' chance of winning.

(By the way, I know a lot of people are looking at PredictWise, but since the formula for that site is still pretty new, I prefer to look at straight betting. Prognostication is one of the few things the free market is really, really good at.)

TL;DR: The closer to one, the better. Hillary's at 1.1, Sanders is at 10.


How This Works

Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
The article on Japanese sword fighters is quite lengthy, but I can samurais it for you!


.

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 14, 2016

54 Days to California, 5 Days to New York.

Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +648).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
This Democratic primary has been a pollster's worst nightmare. Michigan is the most obvious example, but take also states like South Carolina, where the polls predicted an easy Hillary win, but failed to predict the utter and complete blowout she achieved.

I've been looking over the polling aggregates for states that have already voted, and it seems to me the problem is that, with respect to states that they got wrong, pollsters can't seem to pin down a working model; this is evidenced by the fact that, in states that were wrong, the polls tended to be all over the place. In the days before Michigan, for instance, the polls ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +37. In South Carolina, they ranged from Clinton +11 to Clinton +50 (and +50 is in fact what she achieved). In Oklahoma, they ranged from Clinton +16 to Sanders +5. And so on.

Weeks have passed, states (and territories) from every geographical and demographical region have voted, and the big pollsters have been burning the midnight oil trying to get their models correct. No one will bet the farm that they have it right, of course, but I for one feel safe dipping my feet into the waters of prognostication once again.

In New York there have been ten polls over the past couple weeks, and they range from Clinton +10 to Clinton +18. That's very narrow compared to the above states. Moreover, any pro-Sanders "insurgency effect" will be offset by the exclusion of independents from the closed primary. (Frankly, the New York closed primary rules do need some revision; Trump's own kids can't vote for him, not having registered in time! But for now, they do work against the low-information Sanders voter.)

The average of all these polls is Clinton +12.9. If that holds, Hillary will take about 140 delegates, bringing her magic number to 41.4% of remaining votes. If we take the low end of the range, Clinton +10, she gets 136 delegates and her magic number is 41.6%. For more pessimistic outcomes, see my April 10 SotP. For more optimistic outcomes, consult a more optimistic numbers wonk.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, however, Sanders will have only 1,400 delegates remaining to catch up to Hillary.


How This Works

Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I wanted to teach chemistry, but after periodic doubts I decided I was out of my element!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 12, 2016

56 Days to California, 7 Days to New York.


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +649).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
As you can tell if you have seen yesterday's SotP and compared it with today's, all these numbers are subject to tiny changes. A recalculation from a previous contest flipped a Hillary delegate to Sanders, and suddenly most of these numbers are changed, including the adjusted targets for New York.

What's going on? Well, there are local or regional events pertaining to the primary results virtually every single week. Over this last weekend, for example, in addition to the Wyoming caucuses we had the Massachusetts Congressional District Caucuses, the Oklahoma State Convention, and the Tennessee State Executive Committee. Next weekend we've got the Arizona Congressional District Caucuses, the Colorado State Assembly, the North Carolina County Conventions . . . I could go on.

These regional events are where the more precise calculations take place. These events are also prime territory for those on either side who want to want to screw with the results -- say, by showing up as a delegate without the proper credentials, or by sending messages intended for the other side's audience that they need not attend a certain meeting. As a result, the numbers will be in a tiny state of flux right up until the convention.

Unless the count is very close, which I don't believe it will be, this flux will not be large enough to swing the race one way or the other. For now, though, it plays hell with numbers wonks like me. Therefore: all hail Google spreadsheets!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I don't like grapes these days; people just aren't raisin them right!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 11, 2016 (Adjustment Edition)

57 Days to California, 8 Days to New York.


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 718 pledged delegates, 43.6% of remaining.
Sanders needs 930 pledged delegates, 56.5% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 131, Clinton 116.



Comments
I'm introducing something new into SotP: adjusted targets. The explanation is pretty lengthy, so there's a TL;DR at the bottom.

The current targets are those calculated by Nate Silver on March 30 (hence "3/30" targets), which are an update over the targets created by FiveThirtyEight at the start of the primary, against which Sanders is currently 90 delegates short. On March 30, the whole thing was reset to zero and the targets recalculated based on the state of the races so far.

I've taken that one step further. The adjusted targets, which I've calculated myself, are the number of delegates a candidate needs to take from a given state, plus the delegates he or she failed to gain from previous states. In other words, the adjusted targets reflect how many delegates a candidate needs to fall exactly on track for the nomination.

Sanders' 3/30 target track began at 1,038 pledged delegates. In the couple weeks since then, there were minor adjustments in the counts of previous states, resulting in his gaining 3 delegates. However, we also had the Wisconsin primary, in which Sanders fell 2 delegates behind target, and the Wyoming caucuses, in which he fell a further 4 delegates behind. In total, then, he is now 3 delegates behind his target, having 1,096 out of 1,099 needed delegates.

His state target for New York next week is 128 delegates. However, if he meets that number exactly, he will still be 3 delegates behind his overall target. Thus, to completely catch up to where he needs to be, he needs 131 delegates from New York. That's the adjusted target.

If he comes up short of 128, then that reflects the condition of New York alone; if he comes up short of 131, however, the difference will carry forward into the April 26 slate of states. If he gains 124 delegates from New York, for example, then the 7-delegate deficit is added to his April 26 target of 384, making an adjusted target of 391.

Right now Sanders is quite close to his adjusted target, only 3 delegates off. But in the end, this is the metric that really counts; there's no way to spin a deficit. If he is still 3 delegates off, or even 1 delegate off, when the last contest is decided, he fails to gain the majority and thus loses the nomination.

Now look at Hillary. Her 3/30 target is 119 for New York, but since she is 3 delegates ahead of her overall target, her adjusted target for the state is 116. If she only takes 116 delegates from New York (which is 47% of delegates), then she and Sanders are tied in the entire race. If she takes 119 delegates (48.2%), then the adjusted target for April 26 remains three delegates short of original. If she takes 126 delegates (51%), then her adjusted target for April 26 is 10 less than her original target. And so on.

Here's the TL;DR: The adjusted targets are a quick way to look at the results from a state, and judge from it the overall state of the race.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
The man who robbed the soap factory made a clean getaway!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 10, 2016

58 Days to California, 9 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,308, Sanders 1,096 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,777, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.6% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.



Comments
I was surprised. Were you surprised?

Something tells me the folks on the ground in Wyoming weren't that surprised. Thanks to their efforts, of the eight states of the Sanders Tunnel, Sanders won only six. Six and a half, if you feel like being generous. The media, and certainly Sanders' supporters, are painting Wyoming as a victory, because he did handily win the popular vote -- but if that's the metric that counts, Hillary, not President Obama, should have been the nominee in 2008!

Now we're out of the tunnel, and back into states where, at best for Sanders, he and Hillary are in a real horse race. So let's consider some scenarios for New York.

First, because I'm still a pessimist, let's look at what I think is a worst-case scenario: Sanders takes 60% of the vote. He will gain 148 delegates to Hillary's 99, will exceed his target by 20 delegates, and his magic number -- the percentage of remaining delegates he needs, currently 56.5% -- drops to 55.9%. (Frankly, if he can average 60% in all remaining states, he's got this in the bag, so it's not much use worrying about this one.)

If Sanders gets 55%, he will gain 136 delegates to Hillary's 111, exceeding his target by 8. However, his magic number goes up to 56.7%. So it's either better or worse for him, depending on which metric you look at.

Say there's a tie -- we'll give Sanders the odd delegate, so it's 124 to Hillary's 123. He comes in 4 delegates under target, and his magic number goes up to 57.6%. Bad news either way.

Say Sanders gets 48%. He gets 119 delegates to Hillary's 128. Nine delegates under target, and his magic number is 57.9%.

Finally, and this is the best scenario I dare consider, say Sanders gets 45%. Sanders gets 111 delegates to Hillary's 136. Seventeen delegates behind target, and his magic number is now 58.5%. So he'll be back to where he was before the Ides of March, or even a bit worse off, with most of his best states behind him.

Bernie is a New York native, but Hillary is well-loved there, and it's a closed primary. Don't count Sanders out of winning New York -- but don't bet the farm on it, either.


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day

The coffee at the mechanics' shop is break fluid!

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 9, 2016

59 Days to California, 10 Days to New York.


Delegate Count


Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,301, Sanders 1,089 (Clinton +212).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,770, Sanders 1,120 (Clinton +650).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 43.7% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Wisconsin (April 5): Sanders 48, Clinton 38 (Sanders +11).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 48/50 (-2), Clinton 38/36 (+2).


Next Primary: TODAY

Wyoming: 14 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 11, Clinton 3.



Comments
Today is the last of Bernie's "great eight" states, the period between March 15 and New York when we knew full well he would command the states. Today is also the second-to-last stateside caucus in the entire primary; there are also three caucuses in the territories, but the only state caucus is North Dakota, on the same day as California. The total number of pledged delegates available from caucuses after today is 92.

There will be 778 delegates available from open, semi-open, and semi-closed primaries, and 777 delegates from closed primaries. That's 1,647 delegates in total, and if Bernie picks up all of Wyoming's 14 delegates today, he will need only 56% of all remaining pledged delegates to win the majority. (That's the number Bernie supporters have been throwing around for a while now anyway, but now they won't have to round down quite so much.)

Call me pessimistic, but I think 14-0 for Bernie is the most likely outcome of today's vote in Wyoming. Once we know for sure, I'll be able to look at different scenarios going into New York and beyond. For today, let us commiserate the Wyoming results, and at the same time celebrate the resumption of Hillary's road to the nomination!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
Pencil sharpeners have a rough life; they have to live off tips!
Go to Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Next »