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demwing

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Gender: Male
Hometown: Venice, California
Current location: St. Petersburg, Florida
Member since: Fri Jul 2, 2004, 04:55 PM
Number of posts: 13,032

Journal Archives

My son told me that he would not vote

He's 19, and a fan of Russell Brand.

His big objections:

He doesn't know enough about the candidates to make a quality decision
He doesn't trust our voting machines
He doesn't think there's much difference between the parties

We went through hours of debate, and my breakthrough moment was this:

Even if you vote wrong, even if your vote is flipped, and even if the parties ARE the same, your inactivity does nothing to change the system, in fact it makes it worse. Somewhere, a statistician is reporting that another 18-25 year old didn't vote, and that adds to the false meme that young voters don't care about election outcomes. When that happens, politicians stop caring about what affects that age group, and they tailor their messages, platforms, and policies to age groups that ARE engaged.

There's nothing wrong with a symbolic vote, when it symbolizes that you give a damn.

We went to the polls Saturday, and early voted in Florida

Senate Democrats will exceed expectations

The Doom and Gloomers are wrong. This is not 2010. I'm predicting Dems end up with 50 or 51 seats (we have 45 safe seats).

I see the following hard fought-but-solid-Dem wins:

NC, NH, LA, GA. In all 4, the Dem currently leads, and that gives us 49.

I also see the following possible Dem/IND wins (in diminishing order):

KS, IA, KY, AK. 1 of those 4 gives us 50. 2 secures the deal at 51. If we somehow take all 4 we hold at 53.

NOTES: If Orman wins, I think he'll sit with the Dems. His explanation of why he's running as an Independant (http://www.ormanforsenate.com/independence) reveals that he wants people who are "fiscally responsible and socially tolerant" to have a voice. In essence, he's a Blue Dog.

While I was initially convinced that CO would stay Dem in a squeaker, it seems to have slipped outside of our grasp.

50/51, and that's my story.

So, KY has a tight race, a debate, and a candidate with a (contrived) controversy

Why not poll the state? There's so much room for updates with the national polls, and both candidates can afford internal polling. There no reason that multiple polls haven't been run over the last two weeks.

So why not?

Official Fans of Charlie Crist Thread

Im BIG a fan!



See? Are you a fan?

For this thread, for this time, show your support for the Charlie Crist, the guy who has the fan power to make Rick Scott run and hide!


damn fucking straight!

aand thanks for fucking noticing

New FOX Poll has McConnell ahead in Kentucky - but WAIT!

Read the fine print:

"Voters who were registered prior to 2013 yet had not voted in at least one of the last four statewide general elections were excluded from the sample. Respondents who indicated they were unlikely to vote in November were also excluded."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-gop-sen-mcconnell-narrowly-ahead-dem-grimes-in-kentucky/


That means no one who is a first time voter was polled. In fact --assuming everyone registers at the age of 18--no one under 20 years old was polled (potentially up to the age of 22 if that person failed to vote in 2012)!

BTW, according to the census from 2010, the 18-21 age group accounts for about 5% of the state's population

More Kentucky voter stats:

There are 1.67 million registered Dems in Kentucky, only 1.21 Million registered Republicans.

Grimes gathered 307,821 votes in the 2014 Dem primary
McConnell took in 213,753 votes in the 2014 Rep primary

402,524 Democrats turned out for the 2014 Senate primary
355,116 Republicans turned out for the 2014 Senate primary

If just the people that voted in the primary for Grimes or McConnell vote the same way in the GE, Grimes walks away with roughly 59% of the vote.

if all the people that voted in the Senate Primary turn out for the GE, Dems will take 53% of the turnout.

And...In case you were afraid Mitch McConnell might rig the vote with his monkey business, check out who is currently listed as the Commonwealth's Chair of the Board of Elections

http://elect.ky.gov/statistics/Pages/registrationstatistics.aspx


American Witchdoctors

few days ago, FOX Instigator Andrea Tantaros speculated that African Ebola patients may visit witch doctors, instead of legitimate hospitals.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/10/foxs-andrea-tantaros-african-ebola-patients-may-visit-witch-doctor-not-hospital/

Which made me glad that I live in America, dammit. In America, we're much too well educated to fall for such tripe...

...right?



Praise Jesus!

Grimes internal poll shows tied race with McConnell

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/217259-grimes-internal-shows-tied-race-with-mcconnell

Facing a string of troubling public polls that have shown Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) opening up a solid lead, his Democratic challenger, Alison Lundergan Grimes, released one of her own on Wednesday that pegged the race as a tie.

The survey, from the Mellman Group, actually gives Grimes a 1-point lead, with 43 percent support from likely voters to McConnell’s 42 percent support; 15 percent remain undecided.


<SNIP>

Mark Mellman, who is also a columnist for The Hill, expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm’s success rate in previous races.

“We’ve been right when these public polls have been wrong,” he said. “I'm more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.”

Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly, even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.

Mellman said he’s confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled “the likely electorate, not just likely voters,” by analyzing “each individual’s vote history and what that does to their probable vote” this cycle.


Graimes is a self-proclaimed "Clinton Democrat." While this isn't usually a bonus to me, I don't live in Kentucky, and am hoping it means something to her future constituents, because even the most centrist Democrat is infinitely superior to Mitch.

If Grimes and Mellman's internal polls are right, Kentucky is on the verge of finally freeing themselves from this pathetic legacy left by Mitch McConnell.

DU needs a national election, pretty damned quick

before we eat each other raw. Or not...

Is DU a place where liberals of every stripe can be a family, tangle with each other respectfully, share our thoughts and inspirations, and learn from others who share as well, or is it not?

I've been here - in one incarnation or another - since 2002-ish. I've seen some pretty nasty infighting, but the great majority of it was always couched in a "my candidate is better than your candidate" context. In the end, we were always able to unite under the common goal of defeating Republicans. Even our worst conflicts were based on who we thought was best able to achieve that goal.

Today, not so much. We can't even agree on women's rights anymore, or on what the definition of a Democrat should be. Much worse than that (or perhaps, "because" of that), we can't seem to keep ourselves from being disgustingly insensitive to each other, sometimes over amazingly innocents posts.

I don't want to spend any time reliving the Top 10 Worst Moments of DU, that's not what this post is about. Beside, if you visit DU regularly, you've seen the types of posts I'm referring to. They are characterized as trollish, mean spirited, completely devoid of empathy and compassion, and insidiously on the increase. These posts are not yet in the majority, but if we come to see them as normal, or as the standard behavior for a liberal internet forum, then these posts will one day define DU.

In my opinion, the jury system has contributed to the spread of such behavior, and has done more to hurt DU than it has to help DU. Today I alerted a post. The alert failed, and one of the responses I got back from a juror dismissed the offending post as a mere generalization, and reflected that if we hid every such generalization, there wouldn't anything left to read.

Should DU be a place where seekers find posts of a high quality (even if the post count is low), or merely a place where you find a high quantity of a trash?

Let's be clear - if you want to read volumes of negative crap, go check out Yahoo News Comments. There's plenty to read there so you'll never be bored, and there's much opportunity for incendiary bullshit.

Maybe DU does need an election pretty damned quick. It helps us focus on our real opponents - the Republicans, Tea Partyists, and Economic Libertarians. In other words, conservatives of every stripe. The problem is that we just had such an election, and the subsequent glow of DU unity faded too quickly. Can we rely on national elections every 2 years to get us through? Not when we're back to reflecting our anger inward in just a few months.

What DU really needs is a little reform. Perhaps a way to hold jurors accountable for upholding the DU terms of service? I'm not sure what the answer is, but the current process just doesn't seem to be making this place a better place.

The slow, advancing creep of the asshats will kill DU eventually, unless DUers do something to stop it.

Happy President's Day DUers!

Dated (No Bush 2 or Obama), but still fun

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