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geek tragedy

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Member since: Thu May 13, 2004, 12:50 PM
Number of posts: 64,392

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Ted Cruz, Dignity Wraith, endorses the man who insulted his wife and father in public

and wipes out his best moment in public life, his showing up Trump at the RNC.

In a way, this is a relief as it nullifies the only two times I've ever felt respect for Cruz as a man.

NBC/WSJ Poll--likely voters--Hillary .... +7!!!!!!!!!! (48-41) in 2 way race

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/21/heading-into-first-debate-clinton-with-6-point-lead-over-trump-new-nbc-wsj-poll.html

43-37 in 4-way race

Respondents "revealed a hardening of personal dislike and professional uncertainty about Donald Trump," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the NBC/WSJ survey with Republican counterpart Bill McInturff. "Voters see Hillary Clinton as safe and smart. In this year, it looks like a winning hand."

...

But the poll shows Clinton, a former First Lady, senator, and Secretary of State, with powerful advantages over Trump on "being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency" (60 percent to 23 percent), and "having the right temperament to be president" (56 percent to 23 percent). Voters prefer Trump on "being honest and straightforward" by 41 percent to 31 percent, down from his 16-percentage point edge on that quality in June.


Voters choose Clinton by a two-to-one margin, 51 percent to 25 percent, on "being in charge of our nuclear weapons," and by 48 percent to 33 percent on "being a good Commander-in-Chief." Though Trump has cast himself as the candidate of change, voters pick Clinton narrowly (44 percent to 38 percent) on "changing the country for the better."

Trump Foundation=ILLEGAL TAX DODGING SCHEME.

It's emerging from many reports that companies like NBC/Universal etc made 'donations' to Trump's foundation in lieu of payments to Trump himself for business activities.

Ordinarily, that would mean Trump would have to report that as income, then take a corresponding charitable deduction.

Maybe he did that, maybe he just considered them to be third party donations with no tax consequences for him.

That would seem to be a six of one, half dozen of the other type of thing. No big deal.

Except, he then used the Foundation as a slush fund to pay for personal or business expenses.

The entire point of the Trump Foundation isn't to steal from donors--it's to help him divert his income into payments for his own personal and businesses' benefit without paying taxes on the income.

So, either he committed tax fraud by either (a) not declaring the income properly or (b) falsely claiming his shuffling of funds through his slush fund as a deduction.

Either way, TAX FRAUD.

Monmouth NH poll--Clinton +9 (47-38)---the granite firewall is holding

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_092116/

Among Granite State voters likely to participate in November's presidential election, 47% support Clinton and 38% back Trump. Another 10% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and 3% are currently undecided.


My prediction is that New Hampshire will be the state that puts Clinton over the top for a total of 272 or 273 electoral votes. This is good news. Without NH (or Pennsylvania) Trump has a plausible route to 265 but not to 270.

Chillax about 538 projections.

What's important to remember about their projections is that not only do new numbers enter their data set, but old polls get phased out. So what you're seeing is polls from Clinton's strongest period of the race now rolling off, creating a false sense that the race suddenly turned this week, when in effect this is all still due to last week's numbers (which were really awful).

As we go forward in the next couple of weeks, those negative numbers will also begin to fade from the data set, and the Clinton percentages will go up assuming the polling stays consistent.

Trump's hand-picked moderator (Holt) who chose Trump-friendly topics, is a registered Republican



9/20/16, 3:32 PM
Trump called @LesterHoltNBC a Democrat. Not so. NYState voter form shows Holt, moderator of Monday's debate, is a registered Republican pic.

twitter.com/XzoVYU9es8



https://twitter.com/XzoVYU9es8


https://twitter.com/davidfolkenflik/status/778315866903642112?refsrc=email&s=11

Let's see:

1) Trump says he wants this clown to be the debate moderator;
2) the clown chooses the most Trump-friendly topics (allows him to do nothing but spout vague platitudes) short of "Email Servers, Benghazi, and Pneumonia"
3) the clown turns out to be a registered Republican.

Seems legit.



The first debate has already been rigged-in Trump's favor. A tie for Clinton under these circumstances, going up against not only Trump but also a hostile moderator, would be a win.

Most encouraging data point from Upshot/Siena voter file poll of Florida this week.

That poll showed either a Clinton +1 or a tie, depending on matchups.

But, there's a hidden structural advantage for Clinton.

LV undecideds in Upshot/Siena by *self-reported* party ID

I 39, D 26, R 13

By *actual* party registration:

D 52 (!!!), I 31, R 17


https://twitter.com/patrickruffini/status/778290746457751553?refsrc=email&s=11

(presumably some didn't offer an answer to party ID)




Trump will approach the debate as a reality TV entertainment event, not a real debate

He will not try to debate Clinton on the issues, and the topics selected by Lester Holt are nothing but vague platitudes, so Trump very likely will be able to get away with spouting vague platitudes and bluster and dramatic, sweeping statements.

He'll even do his very best to be smiley-faced, charming (psychopaths can be very charming), and purport to provide a positive vision.

You can expect at least a few very well crafted zingers directed at Clinton. He has Roger Ailes drafting them for him. That's a guarantee.

Trump's going to try to turn the debate into a collection of sound bites rather than a substantive discussion. He's betting that his one-liners and big, dramatic statements will get replayed a lot more than Clinton reciting 5 point plans on how to combat climate change.

People expecting Clinton to mop the floor with him should realize that he's not going to be playing the same game as Clinton will be.

He's going to concede the substance of the debate entirely, because (a) he's not interested in substance; (b) he can't do substance; and (c) the central thesis of his campaign is that voters don't care about substance, but rather attitude and emotion.

His bet is that he can win the debate on style points alone.

Lester Holt is already rigging the first debate for Trump.

The Commission on Presidential Debates on Monday announced the topics for the first presidential debate to be held on Sept. 26: America's Direction, Achieving Prosperity and Securing America.

Those topics were chosen by debate moderator and NBC News anchor Lester Holt, according to a press release. While the debate may not cover these nebulous topics in order, each will be discussed for two 15-minute-long segments.


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/presidential-debate-topics-lester-holt

In other words, the discussion will be about vague platitudes and slogans including an "Americas Direction" discussion that's teed up for Trump to talk about how he's an outsider. Nothing about, you know, actual policy and issues that require someone to know stuff.

Lauer redux. Maybe worse.

Trump wanted Holt to be a moderator, with good cause.

Holt, who Trump himself has suggested should moderate a debate, is the odds-on favorite to get one of the three slots.

“I think Lester Holt is a good guy,” the GOP nominee told radio host Hugh Hewitt in a recent interview.


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/291600-who-gets-to-moderate-clinton-trump



As Trump rises in battleground states, Clinton moves to block his path to 270


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-rises-in-battleground-states-clinton-moves-to-block-his-path-to-270

State by state, Clinton’s advisers have a sober assessment of where the race stands. But they say that if they can turn out their votes — especially among young people, a critical Democratic constituency that has registered soft support for Clinton — they have ample ways to block Trump from winning the necessary 270 electoral votes despite clear deterioration in several states.

“We expected this to tighten. We expect it to tighten even further,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook said. “That’s why we built a robust campaign in all 50 states, but especially in the battleground states. It’s going to come down to small margins. . . . We’re spending a lot of time making sure of our vote.”


State/demographics outlook:

At Clinton’s New York headquarters, her aides attribute much of the movement to which candidate is under fire and which one is out of the headlines. They have seen erosion in her support among white voters during difficult weeks, although they argue that those voters have shifted to the undecided column rather than moving all the way to supporting Trump.

The Clinton campaign is pessimistic about both Ohio and Iowa, which Obama also won twice. Public polls show Trump ahead in both — and comfortably so in Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state and one of the only battleground states in which the Republican establishment has fully embraced Trump. A Monmouth University survey this week showed Trump ahead of Clinton there, 45 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson running in third, at 8 percent.



The Clinton campaign is pessimistic about both Ohio and Iowa, which Obama also won twice. Public polls show Trump ahead in both — and comfortably so in Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state and one of the only battleground states in which the Republican establishment has fully embraced Trump. A Monmouth University survey this week showed Trump ahead of Clinton there, 45 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson running in third, at 8 percent.


Florida, another state Obama twice carried, remains extremely competitive, according to public and private polls, and probably will be until the end. Clinton advisers, however, note that they can lose all three of those states and still win the presidency.

Their position is strengthened, they argue, by what they say are strong standings in Virginia and Colorado because of the demographics there, though some public polls show a tightening race in the latter.

Clinton advisers are zeroing in on North Carolina as a potential back-breaker for Trump. In 2012, it was the only major swing state that Romney won, but it is by no means a sure thing for Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of polls there has Clinton hanging to a razor-tight lead, 42.8 percent to Trump’s 42.2 percent, with Johnson at 7.2 percent.




Clinton is probably likely to win, but there is a very real danger of a Trump presidency.
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