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Member since: Wed May 5, 2004, 09:44 AM
Number of posts: 32,904

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Did anyone else watch the Charlie Rose interview w/Ehud Barak? He urged Obama to bomb Iran without

seeking any Congressional or UN authorization, and has been talking to some in Congress and the Admin. to make sure the "same mistake" that delayed the bombing of Syria isn't repeated.

The former Israeli PM talked about his meetings in DC about goading the US into a "sledgehammer attack" on Iran's nuclear installations with some secret new weapons he alluded to toward the end of the Rose Interview. Also, earlier in the talk he seems to say that Israel was involved in the western interventions in Libya and Syria.

Barak discusses his strategy for an unannounced, preemptive attack by the US on Iran about 30 minutes into the interview first aired Friday night, here: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/israeli-prime-minister-barak-charlie-rose-09-20-blc81QjLSWGC3eZiu1Kyiw.html

Here are some additional materials on the Church/Pike Committee Reports:

Full Church Commitee reports: http://www.aarclibrary.org/publib/contents/church/contents_church_reports.htm

Full Pike Commitee reports: http://www.maryferrell.org/mffweb/archive/docset/getList.do?docSetId=1918

CIA Historical Study of the background to the Church and Pike Committee reports: https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/winter98_99/art07.html

We opened a pandora's box with serial regime change across MENA. Religious war was the inevitable

result in Syria given its particular history of Sunni-Shi'ia conflict and its proximity, strategic and symbolic importance to the major antagonists within the region: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel. The breakup of Libya sent tens of thousands of hardened fighters newly armed with sophisticated weapons into the other conflict zones, particularly Syria. Once ignited, civil war in Syria was bound to spread.

The Sunni-Shi'ia Jihad is a cancer that was once contained and stable. The Clinton-Petraeus serial regime change doctrine destabilized the region, and sectarian violence and terrorism is now metasticizing. Now, it will make the whole world violently ill.

Life is not better now in eastern and central Libya.

Eastern coastal Libya is a hodgepodge of feuding war lords and mini caliphates. It is from this area that most of the Jihadis and looted arms that went to Iraq and Syria (and are back in Iraq again now). Large parts of the central coastal city of Sirte, which was the tribal homeland of Ghadaffi, were reduced to ruins and have not been rebuilt:

As for democratization, here is 15 minutes of public administration of justice by the local Islamic Court. Sirte, March, 2013:

The American Citizens' Guide to Seeking Asylum Abroad

The American Citizens' Guide to Seeking Asylum Abroad
By JDzubow
09-17-2013 at 09:02 AM

This piece was originally published by http://www.wherevermag.com/ wherever magazine, an out of place journal of travel literature, travel culture, and travel politics. I will periodically be blogging for the new magazine, which seems like a very cool publication (probably too cool for the likes of me, but for now, I'm still in).

I wrote this piece because I am contacted pretty regularly by U.S. citizens who are seeking asylum abroad, or who are thinking about it. Some of these asylum seekers are not so legitimate in my estimation--criminals who hope to avoid the consequences of their crimes. Others represent sad situations that involve people who have been frustrated by their inability to receive help from the government. Victims of domestic abuse are one example in this category. Also, there are those who are engaged in political activity (or what they consider political activity) that could result in criminal penalties here. Edward Snowden falls into this category. So do certain cannabis activists and others in favor of drug legalization (people who consider drug use a political act).

Some people need to flee the U.S.; others just need to leave already.

OK, without further ado, the original piece is here (where you can also check out some interesting articles and photos), and a slightly shortened version is below:

Letís say youíve decided to flee the United State of America. Youíre not some high-profile asylum seeker like Edward Snowden, who can count on help from a rival government (Russia). Instead, youíre just an ordinary asylum seeker, who will have to demonstrate that you qualify for protection under international law. How would you go about it?


(Not quite Latest Breaking News, but I thought I would share it while it's still fresh, anyway. Who hasn't had this thought, at some time?

FYI - Jason is a real immigration lawyer, and only half kidding.)

Human Rights Watch: Vast Majority Killed with Non-Military Ordinance on 8/21

On September 10, Human Rights Watch (HRW) published its 22-page report on the chemical attacks in suburban Damascus. http://www.hrw.org/reports/2013/09/10/attacks-ghouta-0 That paper follows similar reports by the U.S. State Department, the Government of France, but offers a wealth of information and details missing in the governmental assessments.

HRW: Doubts Raised About Number of Areas Targeted, All Rockets Launched from Regime-Controlled Territory

Details of the HRW report have caused this writer to reassess some earlier conclusions, but it has also reinforced some other doubts raised about the accuracy and completeness of the U.S. and French reports. The HRW study does not back up the U.S. report that the deadliest attacks on eastern Damascus were launched from a "regime controlled" area, the number of neighborhoods attacked, or the number of rockets launched. Most fundamentally, it casts doubt on the conclusions drawn that the deadliest of these attacks had to be carried out by regime forces using military weapons.

One issue which HRW has helped to correct previous confusion regards the types of ordinance used. It had been previously thought that large numbers of rockets, each carrying a relatively small amount of Sarin were required to produce fatalities that number upwards of hundreds killed to 1426 claimed by the Kerry Report. Earlier assessments that many dozens of rockets had to used were predicated upon information that each rocket held only 1-2 liters of Sarin each. This report now makes it clear that there were in fact two types of chemical rockets used on separate neighborhoods, and that by far the deadlier attacks were carried out with a small number -- as few as eight -- crude but deadly improvised rockets of the type that have been previously used by militias inside Syria and by insurgent groups in several Mideast countries.

In contrast, the neighborhood in western Damascus targeted with standard Syrian Army munitions suffered relatively light casualties, and HRW finds there is no evidence of the type of military ordinance used there ever having been employed before in the civil war. The neighborhood closest to the military airbase and headquarters of the 4th Armored Brigade was attacked by seven or eight 140mm artillery rockets, a standard type of Soviet-era munition. Each of these rounds is relatively accurate but capable of carrying only 2 liters of Sarin over a range of up to about six miles. According to HRW, fewer than one-in-six of the fatalities occurred in that area where these military munitions were used.

However, according to the HRW Report, at least 8 larger improvised gas rockets (333mm in diameter) impacted in the eastern part of the city. Improvised Rocket-Assisted Munitions (IRAMs), these bigger, deadlier, but clumsier devices are not standard military ordinance. During the same night, these improvised rockets were fired into the eastern Damascus suburbs in the area of Zamalka, and this type is estimated by HRWís experts to have a capacity to carry upwards of 50 liters of Sarin in each warhead. While it carries a far larger amount of poisonous agent, and are proportionately more deadly over a larger area, these improvised devices are described as having poor flight characteristics with a more limited range and poor accuracy, except very close to the target:

The rocket is of a non-aerodynamic design . . . indicat(ing) that the rocket would be relatively short ranged and not capable of accurate targeting.

Improvised Rocket-Assisted Munition (IRAM)of Same Type Used in 8/21 Damascus Attack:

HRW Report Silent About State Dept. Allegation that All Attacks Launched from Regime-Controlled Territory

1) HRW Map of Targeted Damascus Neighborhoods (highlighted in Red)

One interesting aspect of the HRW report is that while the authors cite witnesses as stating that the smaller, more accurate rockets were observed to have come from the direction of Syrian military bases, the report is silent as to where the larger, deadlier improvised rockets were launched.* Nonetheless, the HRW paper specifies that the improvised devices killed far more people:

Human Rights Watch has collected the names of 80 individuals believed to have been killed in the August 21 strikes in Moadamiya in Western Ghouta. Two sources told Human Rights Watch that 103 people were killed in the Moadamiya attack.28 Because the attack on Eastern Ghouta involved a much larger affected area, and several small clinics where victims were brought, a total death toll is more difficult to establish. A member of the Zamalka media center, stated during an interview with Human Rights Watch on September 4, and in a separate interview with local journalists on the same day, that the local council in Zamalka had registered the full names of 734 persons who were killed during the attack in Zamalka neighborhood.

HRW states that witnesses counted some seven or eight of the smaller but more accurate 140mm rockets launched into the southwestern neighborhoods of Moadamiya near the military airfield at Mezzeh. The report states:

Two witnesses told Human Rights Watch that the August 21 rocket attack on their area came from the direction of the Mezzeh Military Airport and the nearby Syrian 4th Armored Division base, which are located respectively four kilometers and five to seven kilometers from the site of the attack, and thus within the range of possible launching sites.

The other Sarin gas strikes were in a distant neighborhood identified as Zamalka, 16 kilometers to the East on the other side of Damascus. It becomes clear that these improvised rockets could not have been launched from the same site, as they simply do not have the range to reach any of the eastern targets, particularly the easternmost neighborhood of Duma that is 20 kilometers away from the Mezzah airfield and army base:

Human Rights Watch confirm(s) at least four strike sites in Zamalka where at least eight 330mm rockets struck on August 21. This is unlikely to be a complete account of the number of rockets used in the attack . . . The 330mm surface-to-surface rocket that appears to be associated with the August 21 attack on Eastern Ghouta is of a type not listed in standard, specialized, international or declassified reference materials. It is a rocket type that has not been documented before the outbreak of the current Syrian conflict . . .

< . . .>

Our analysis does not exclude the possibility that additional weapons delivery systems were used in the Eastern and Western Ghouta attacks that have not yet been identified and analyzed. However, the two analyzed by Human Rights Watch are the only known rocket systems identified as associated with the attacks, according to local activists who have closely inspected both the affected areas.

I therefore must revise my earlier assessment, and now acknowledge that in the Eastern suburbs it is entirely possible for just a handful of these larger rockets to have killed several hundreds of people by area saturation with large amounts of poison gas. Please, see, http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023576617

Something else that HRW tells us is that the large improvised rockets had to have been launched from relatively close range only a few kilometers away. Here, my earlier thinking appears to be confirmed. The State Dept. report alleges that all the rockets fired that night were from ďregime-controlled territoryĒ. However, when we look at the State Department map, below, and compare it with the HRW map, a couple things become clear. First, the area in the pink (regime-controlled) is at least six or seven miles from Duma, which the State Dept. identified as the easternmost target. Therefore, either the map or the State Departmentís statement that it located the launching site for the larger rockets in western Damascus appears to be incorrect. Furthermore, HRW casts doubt on the conclusion drawn by the State Dept. that all the gas rockets were launched from inside the indicated government-controlled area. Finally, HRW was unable to confirm most of alleged target areas identified by the Kerry report, of which the State Department shows 12 (see 2nd map, at bottom of article) and the HRW could only confirm two.

2) State Department Report Map:

That brings us to the final question raised here. Why would the Syrian Army use crude, improvised munitions when as the French Report points out, it has large numbers of other types of modern chemical munitions and rockets, some of them with ranges that reach out to 75 kilometers and further with greater accuracy.

Indeed, this just reinforces persistent doubts that the Syrian Army units under the control of the Assad regime used these improvised munitions that killed most of the victims on 8/21. As Brown Moses Blog pointed out in June, these things were introduced into Syria last year and have previously been used there with conventional high explosive warheads by Hezbollah militias. Below, we see an IRAM that was previously identified by that source as having been used by a militia, not the Syrian military. One can see that it is closely related to the type, shown above, used in the Damascus gas attack. http://brown-moses.blogspot.com/2013/06/diy-weapons-in-syria-hezbollah-deploys.html

IRAM Used Inside Syria by Militia Prior to 8/21

The HRW report and other new evidence do not support the conclusion drawn that the Syrian regime controlled all the gas rockets launched that night. While video has been presented that the military has tested or had demonstrated this type of rocket, by no means is it established beyond a reasonable doubt that it was units under orders of the civilian authorities that actually carried out the attack on Zamalka using improvised rockets.

It appears, contrary to the assertions made, that a lot of people in the Mideast besides the Syrian military have cobbled together their own IRAMs and could have both the means and motive to have used them in Eastern Damascus that terrible night. Details of the HRW report raise additional questions about the accuracy of key parts of the State Department report, including the location and number of targets, and that the Syrian military, alone, had the means to carry out the 8/21 attacks.

Al-Qaeda IRAM:

Similar IRAMs have been manufactured and used by a variety of groups, including al-Qaeda, across the region as we see here:

* Note that the Sept. 10 HRW study does not repeat initial reports from opposition activists that located the possible launch point of the rockets that struck Zamalka as the October War Museum, which is a mere 1.25 miles northwest of Zamalka, where most of the casualties occurred: "Activists in the area told him that 18 missiles, carrying what they said was a chemical agent, fired from the direction of the October War Panorama, a military museum in Damascus city, and of Mezzeh military airport, hit Zamalka, Ayn Tarma, Douma, and Moadamiya." http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/08/21/syria-witnesses-describe-alleged-chemical-attacks

He has to stop making sense. Heads are exploding across DC. It's the new Commie secret weapon. . .

RESPONSE TO POST: "The American peopleís reply to Putin" by Dana Milbank

You can only spend and borrow so much on so many wars - something has to give.

In our case, it was the future that we had to give up. But, what the hell - we're totally exceptional, aren't we?

Well, maybe it is a good thing that the American building boom ran out before we erected megatowers in the Grand Canyon. Kinda cool, anyway - at least the cars and clothes of the future that never came, anyway.

I seem to recall those who tried to cover the US invasion from the "wrong" angle got blown up or put

on the No-Fly List. The Embedded or Dead approach to war journalism

RESPONSE TO POST: "Wonder if US will be as keen to show video of dead innocents from their bombing Syria"

Did anyone else notice this? Obama just said that it may have been an unauthorized strike, here:

The transcript of the President's press conference at the G20 Summit was just released. It's unfortunately a very long transcript and he went on at length about the situation in Syria and the Administration's plans for dealing with it. However, there appears to be a very, very important acknowledgement by Obama buried in the tail end of his statements.

Toward the end of his statements and questions & answers with reporters at the G20 Summit, in response to cross-talk with "Major Garrett": http://swampland.time.com/2013/09/06/admitting-public-opposition-on-syria-obama-vows-to-push-forward-transcript/

Major Garrett?

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr. President.

Those of us who remember covering your campaign remember you saying that militarily when the United States acts, itís not just important what it does, but how it goes about doing it. And that even when America sets its course, itís important to engage the international community and listen to different ideas even as itís pursuing that action.

I wonder if you leave here and return to Washington, seeing the skepticism there, hearing it here, with any different ideas that might delay military action. For example, some in Congress have suggested giving the Syrian regime 45 days to sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, get rid of its chemical stockpiles, do something that would enhance the international sense of accountability for Syria, but delay military action.

Are you, Mr. President, looking at any of these ideas? Or are we on a fast track to military action as soon as Congress renders its judgment one way or the other?

OBAMA: I am listening to all these ideas. And some of them are constructive. And Iím listening to ideas in Congress and Iím listening to ideas here. Look, I want to repeat here. My goal is to maintain the international norm on banning chemical weapons. I want that enforcement to be real. I want it to be serious. I want people to understand that gassing innocent people, you know, delivering chemical weapons against children, is not something we do.

Itís prohibited in active wars between countries. We certainly donít do it against kids. And weíve got to stand up for that principle. If there are tools that we can use to ensure that, obviously my preference would be, again, to act internationally in a serious way and to make sure that Mr. Assad gets the message.

Iím not itching for military action. Recall, Major, that I have been criticized for the last couple of years by some of the folks who are now saying they would oppose these strikes, for not striking. And I think that I have a well-deserved reputation for taking very seriously and soberly the idea of military engagement.

So, we will look at these ideas. So far at least, I have not seen ideas presented that, as a practical matter, I think would do the job. But, you know, this is a situation where part of the reason I wanted to foster debate was to make sure that everybody thought about both the ramifications of action andÖ


QUESTION: So currently the ó the only way to enforce this international norm is militarily and even giving the Assad regime extra time would not achieve your goals.

OBAMA: What Iím saying, Major, is that so far what weíve seen is a escalation by the Assad regime of chemical weapons use. Youíll recall that several months ago I said ó we now say with some confidence that at a small level Assad has used chemical weapons. We not only sent warnings to Assad, but we demarched, meaning, you know, we sent a strong message through countries that have relationships with Assad, that he should not be doing this. And rather than hold the line, we ended up with what we saw on August 21st.

So, this is not as if we havenít tested the proposition that the guy ó or at least generals under his charge ó can show restraint when it comes to this stuff. And theyíve got one of the largest stockpiles in the world. But, I want to emphasize, that we continue to consult with our international partners. Iím listening to Congress. Iím not just doing the talking. And if there are good ideas that are worth pursuing, then Iím going to be open to them.I will take, last question, Tangy, AFP.

So, this is not as if we havenít tested the proposition that the guy ó or at least generals under his charge ó can show restraint when it comes to this stuff.

That sounds like an acknowledgement to me that Obama is fully aware of the possibility -- perhaps, probability -- that the attack of August 21 was NOT ordered by Assad or the other civilian leaders, but may have been an unauthorized lauch by the military commander of the unit that carried out the attack.

So, we must ask, how can he expect that it will be either effective or even morally justifiable for the US to launch a punative attack against the Syrian government with the goal of regime change under these circumstances?
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