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sofa king

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Member since: Wed Apr 14, 2004, 04:27 PM
Number of posts: 9,652

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A throwaway chump to let Paul Ryan in.

Here is a disjointed collection of out-loud thoughts. Some are not as insane as they sound. Some are.

Rove sees the writing on the wall: no candidate can beat either Democrat; all of them have savagely ruined each others' chances for a credible run in the general, and they probably haven't dished all the dirt on each other yet, either. With Trump I know that for sure.

I think the idea now is to run a third party spoiler. They can either steal it from Trump and he'll run as a third party for sure, or run a well placed "fresh face" as a pure spoiler if they can't steal it from Trump.

The spoiler has to be someone really well known, because there won't be time to sell the person. It has to be someone capable of getting close enough to steal states from the Democrat and Trump. Big states, too, like PA, VA, NC, OH, TX, FL.

If they can steal states from both candidates, the election gets kicked into the Republican House, and they can do what they do best--nothing--and Speaker Paul Ryan inherits the office without a single vote.

It probably must be a person more widely known on television than in political circles. Maybe a television journalist? Maybe Sean Hannity? Maybe someone just as criminal, but less insane. Colin Powell? No. Too competent, too black. Jesse Ventura might have legs in the midwest, but can he take Pennsylvania? Christie would have been a good choice, a gangster's gangster, but Trump already got to him. Who's that psycho from The View?

Money isn't a problem. They have infinite money and infinite ability to channel it to the spoiler and to Trump and to the Democrat, in case one of the other two is doing too well.

If they're going to steal it from Trump, they can't wait until the week before the convention. They have to make their move at the rules meeting in mid-April, otherwise Trump won't get on the ballot as a third party in the states they want him to win.

Similarly, the spoiler has to launch before the convention, to be on the ballot in states they need to steal.

It can't be Mitt Romney, as much as Romney is angling for it. Romney can't take the states they need to make it a toss-up. He's proven that already.

It can be a criminal, because they'll have time to stall the press with the honeymoon phase and the access gambit. Sarah Palin's criminal behavior didn't fully come to light until the year after she ran. Look how long it took to bust Cruz, and there must have been hundreds of people who knew about his philandering for years.

It can't be Paul Ryan, because he's the one they've already positioned to win it all. It also means they have to win the House (a safe bet), and they have to make sure there is no dissent against Ryan's reelection as Speaker in January (a very unsafe bet, because by then every weasel in the House will see their shortcut to the White House).

One way to throw a wrench in the oligarchs' plans would be to front a powerful opposition candidate against Ryan in his home Congressional district. Do we have that person?

Another way to fuck up the contested election-theft is to run a candidate in every House district, no matter how much of a lost cause. Republican money is infinite but staff talent in the GOP is exceedingly rare. A lot of talent is placed on loan from safe districts, but if those districts suddenly face a challenge, the talent gets pulled back. The ultimate hilarity would be for the GOP to kick the election into the House, delay the vote, and then accidentally elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker with the help of pissed-off Republican moderates.

Hooray, ASSoLs! Please please PLEASE be true!

Antonin Scalia School of Law? ASSoL?!?

It's too close to April Fools Day to be true. It's too high in the Google News list to be true. It's too damned good to be true.

But PLEASE Saint Elvis, PLEASE let this be true!

I was just looking at 538's article....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

... Which demographically breaks down the election, and here is my conclusion:

Donald Trump and the other GOP clowns have already deeply offended about 70% of all voters, leaving only non-college educated white males as a reliable Republican demographic.

All women, plus all minorities, plus me means that no Republican is ever going to (fairly) win a Presidential election ever again. It really is over for the Republican Party, and they are already beginning their total conversion into a terrorist group and crime organization rather than a political front for those operations.

It's a bright future, and a very dark one, at the same time.

There is nothing to it, except Republican crime, of course.

The next President is going to have the responsibility of either prosecuting or not prosecuting the Bush Administration for its grand-scale felonious violation of the Presidential Records Act, in which millions of official government emails were illegally sent through the RNC email servers for years, then destroyed. To this day it is claimed that the emails are "lost," but I guarantee you that NSA, the Russians, and the Chinese all have 'em, because the RNC didn't protect those emails as well as they should have.

We are talking about a conspiracy conducted at every level of the executive branch for years, involving thousands of people, all of whom are looking at seven years in pound-me-in-the-ass prison for failing to document their work as our public servants.

That is what the Hillary Clinton email scandal is about: the crimes of the Bush Administration.

Are you horrified that Hillary wanted her own personal Blackberry? Here is Karl Rove rapping and showing off his:



Now you can be horrified.

Since the Bush people walked away with a couple of trillion dollars while committing thousands of jailable crimes, those emails can never come to light. So they've spent a considerable portion of their ill-gotten gains to thump this, the only scandal they've been able to make stick to Mrs. Clinton in her decade of public service in this century. So they're dragging around the red herring like it's a Monty Python skit, like their freedom depends upon it, because it does.

The threat is that if Hillary Clinton permits prosecution of the GOP for their six orders of magnitude larger email scandal (or forces NSA to produce the "lost" emails, or if the Russians or Chinese stole them and find it expedient to manipulate American foreign policy by coercing Republican politicians with them....), the next Republican President will see to it that Mrs Clinton gets prosecuted for hers. If there ever is one, that is.

That's what this is all about. Yes, there is "something to this scandal." It's that it is being held up for silent comparison against a gargantuan criminal operation that involved discussions of 9/11, anthrax, the manipulation of oil prices, the crash of the housing market, the results of the Ohio election in '04 which were passed through the RNC-controlled servers, and on and on and on. The cover-up of the "lost" Bush administration emails, risking a thousand years of prison time, conceals larger crimes. That is a logical certainty.

And to her great credit, Mrs. Clinton is moving forward, not giving an inch on this, and yes, possibly putting herself at risk of being, someday, indicted for it. She is acting with a confidence that suggests either 1) there is another shoe to drop in this story which exonerates or mollifies the allegations against her, or 2) she's guilty as hell and knows she is going to go Scot free because if the conservatives keep harping on it, she'll bust the entire goddamned Bush Administration before she goes down and negotiate her own freedom, or 3) she is confident that the established precedent of not prosecuting Presidential candidates in election seasons (see Romney, Christie, Perry, Bush I, II and III, etc.) will continue to hold, and is willing to deal with the consequences later.

Whatever the case, the reason this scandal exists today is because of the crimes of the Republican Party, not Mrs. Clinton. She's not bending on it, suggesting that Republicans have a damned good reason to be afraid, too. I am sure some of you will try to paint Mrs. Clinton with the same criminal brush which drips from the entire Republican Party, but that is a fallacious comparison and that should be totally obvious, because were it true we would never have heard of this story.

More evidence in favor of my theory.

The farther to the right the politician, the less empathy that politician has, the more likely that politician is to conduct illicit affairs and be involved in white-collar crime.

The classic middle name.

Since the 1990s, Chuck Shepherd has been observing the strange phenomenon of the middle name "Wayne" and its relationship to crime. He keeps a list of murderers with that middle name.

http://www.newsoftheweird.com/wayne.html

I would further observe that the old Confederacy, particularly Texas, is disproportionately represented in Shepherd's list.

Surely it is some variant of confirmation bias at work, though Shepherd makes a powerful observation when he says, "I suspect that aggressive-personality fathers during the 1950s and 1960s did in fact hopefully and disproportionately name their boys after that era's icon of ruggedness, John Wayne."

Never rule out weirdness, particularly in America, and particularly in Texas. Therefore another shoe may drop in this case, with the flying Texan pimp winding up with blood on his hands, too.

The Backfire Effect in Practice

The Backfire Effect is one of the most infuriating new developments in politics and one of the major differences between liberal and conservative voters.

Simply put, conservatives are too stupid to evaluate between truth and falsehood. They rely upon the "authority" of the speaker and if a speaker they trust lies, and that lie is refuted by a liberal, they automatically gravitate toward the lie because they are not capable of evaluating the truth and instead default to the (totally untrustworthy) authority they trust.

This is why Republican candidates at the debates have adamantly stood by their lies even when stone-cold busted by facts and figures. By sticking to their guns when refuted with actual facts they are actually making stupid Republicans believe the lie they told.

Journalists help the Backfire Effect along quite a lot by 1) pretending it doesn't exist, and 2) pretending it works equally among all people. It does not. Some of all people default to the first thing they learned, true or not, but only conservatives become more likely to believe the lie when it is refuted.

You can see the Backfire Effect at work in the statistics above. Democratic candidates, playing to their own audience, have no incentive to lie and can suffer greatly for being deceptive (see Gary Hart, John Edwards). Conversely, Republican candidates are rewarded for lying, and you can see it in the stratification of the candidates from most dishonest (Trump) at the top to least dishonest at the bottom (Kasich).

Depending on who wins which nomination, some candidates may have an incentive to adjust their delivery by lying more or less, but at this point neither can do much adjusting. Trump must try his hand at telling the truth but his prior statements will always be used against him. Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, would benefit from not refuting false statements by Trump, which is its own form of dishonesty.

Thus we are all the victims of the use of fear and dishonesty in political statements. Nobody wins, except the most evil ones who can successfully wiggle like a catfish in the hippo-poop-mud of a drought-stricken African pond. Great.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021469106
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11109-010-9112-2
http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/06/10/the-backfire-effect/
http://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/the_backfire_effect.php?page=all

The GOP is banking on it.

The Republican Party doesn't have a valid path to the White House this year, and they've known it for a year, and they've spent millions having people research the problem. The problem they want to solve is that the Democrats have a two-deep bench of candidates who can defeat any Republican.

(The problem they don't want to solve is that their predatory practices have literally killed off a critical percentage of voters, and now the GOP has a difficult time winning statewide elections, much less a national one like the Presidency.)

Clinton, Sanders, and Biden have all polled higher than the entire Republican clown car, and Romney, and Ryan. Left to its own inertia, the majority of American people intend to destroy the GOP forever, before the decade is out.

So the American people cannot be permitted to decide.

Therefore the only chance they have is to fall back on the gerrymandered House of Representatives, and the only way they can kick the election into the House is by (also, secretly) backing a third-party candidate who can take electoral votes away from the Democratic candidate so that no candidate wins a majority of electoral votes.

At that point, the House simply has to do what they do best, nothing, and by not selecting a President the Speaker of the House inherits the office by default, without a theft-vote that would doom a hundred Republican Congressmen in 2018. This is why the incompetent and alcoholic John Boehner had to be maneuvered out of the Speakership. The next Speaker will be elected in January and it's important that the evil inner circle already has their guy in place before then--and that guy is Paul Ryan.

Republican voters are stupid but Republican leadership is diabolically evil. They have two paths to a contested election:

1) Steal it from Trump and he is guaranteed to run as a third party. Then the GOP can quietly toss money to Trump in the states that they think he can take from the Democratic candidate above the Mason-Dixon line, where only he has a chance of winning against, say, Mrs. Clinton;

2) Let Trump have it and allow the oligarchs to run an establishment conservative as a third-party candidate. Kasich would be a good choice because he has a chance of bagging Ohio and maybe other rust-belt states.

It's a dangerous game that, if not played well, would guarantee a win for the Democrats and might also lose them the Senate. It's a short-term gambit as well, because it's certain to add to the ranks of people who will never again vote Republican, like all of us. The movement in this direction is obvious to me and others, and we should be asking about the bigger picture at this point, because this is a works-once move that is unlikely to be duplicated in the future. So why would they do it?

Looking beyond this election at the next census, the numerous prosecutions for gerrymandering and election irregularity, and the increasing ability of statistics to correctly detect when votes are being flipped, it's clear to me that the inner circle of the GOP isn't just looking for a candidate that can save them now; they are looking for the last Constitutionally-approved American President, who will become America's first President-for-life. Their evil ways have consumed their own electorate, and the powers that be are increasingly looking for some sort of tryant that they can install so that their increasingly less effective election thieving can be replaced by the smoky backroom dealings that have always determined the course of the GOP and the United States.

Don't forget the GOP has at least 2 chances to change the rules...

... Before the convention.

Also don't forget that the chairman of the RNC is Speaker Paul Ryan.

Also don't forget that if the rules are changed and the nomination is stolen from Donald Trump, he's sure to run as a third party candidate.

Also don't forget that if Trump can win a few states as an independent, like say PA, NY, and NJ, it's possible that no candidate will win a majority of electoral votes and the House of Representatives will choose the next President.

Also don't forget that to avoid being voted out for stealing the election, Congress may well choose not to appoint anyone.

In which case Speaker of the House Paul Ryan inherits the job, assuming he is reelected as Speaker in January.

So, what happens to those delegates depends a whole lot on how badly former Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan wants to be President....

Jesus Christ, sometimes my imagination frightens me.

Prediction:

Within ten years, self-driving cars are discovered to be a reality when a major automaker, seeking better safety ratings, is busted for cars that secretly assert autonomy over bad drivers and then erase their own AI in the event of a crash.

Double points: the phenomenon will be discovered by the handful of people who actually try to drive SUVs off-road, and discover that the computers reset and malfunction after particularly hard days.
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