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sofa king

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Member since: Wed Apr 14, 2004, 04:27 PM
Number of posts: 10,366

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I think they can....

We can check the rules here:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

But I've already spent a lot of time with them. The upshot is this: the Chairman of the RNC, Penis Rebus or whoever, can call a meeting at any time. In that meeting, they can change their procedures and rules in pretty much any way. We're talking Republicans here: rules exist to facilitate whatever the hell they want to do, not prevent them from doing it.

Rule No. 9 explains how replacing a candidate would work: call a meeting, not sooner than five days ahead, pretend to decide whether to hold another convention or not (they won't), then have the 150+ Members of the Committee pick Karl Rove's backdoor choice. States that buck up and resist have their delegate proxy votes split evenly among everyone else.

Note in particular what I mean about facilitating, not preventing. Here is the loophole they left for themselves:

The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States...

"Or otherwise" can probably be as simple as having the Committee declare the candidate to be unqualified, "by reason of being an asshole," for example.

It's a court full of wolves in kangaroo clothing, and this is exactly what the Committee has wanted all year. They can get it done, and they can get it done by next Friday, easily.

I still think they will. I still think Trump is going to be "persuaded" to resign this Friday. But I'll tell you the truth: as long as he stays fifteen points behind, I'll be disappointed to see him go, because this is shaping up to be the biggest landslide I've ever seen.

Trump is going down

I am telling all of you right now, this masterful President, who knows his job so damned well that nothing under his direct control has gone astray of the law in seven glorious years, would not have stepped into this race in this manner unless it was a matter of pressing national security.

Now the entire focus of the media and the federal government is being turned against Donald Trump, because he is a patsy for the Russians, because he did violate the terms of the legally binding agreements he signed in order to get a Presidential Daily Briefing, and because he is now known to be a national security risk.

Not a bullshit batted-around-in-the-press-for-a-year teapot tempest of a security risk, but a clear and present danger that must be stopped.

Trump is being walked out now so that we don't have to frog-march him out, before he can destroy this nation. That is why the President is directly appealing to the leadership of Trump's own party to get him out. And worse still, the first fuckin' thing Trump did in response is send his accomplices out and tell them to clean their guns.

The pressure is going to continue to mount against him until he decides that the better "deal," for which Trump always fishes, is to leave now rather than go up the river entirely. But if he doesn't, he's going down one way or the other, with or without the help of the Republican Party, and they have to decide right now whether or not they are going to land on the correct side of the law--for once--or move into direct opposition to the federal government as their spiritual forebears the Confederates did.

Or maybe Rove plots to get Jeb! on the ballot this September.

I think many of us fail to appreciate the seriousness of Trump's screw-ups this week, which appear to include at least two violations of 18 USC ss 793:

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793

The interesting part about it is that if he leaves the race, the national security threat he presents is largely eased, so if it's a choice between getting his ass kicked and facing prison, or leaving now and being able to continue being a rich asshole, I think he'll take the deal.

If that happens, according to my research so far, the RNC can apply Rule 9 of their Party Rules:

RULE NO. 9
Filling Vacancies in Nominations
(a) The Republican National Committee is hereby authorized and empowered to fill any and all vacancies which may occur by reason of death, declination, or otherwise of the Republican candidate for President of the United States or the Republican candidate for Vice President of the United States, as nominated by the national convention, or the Republican National Committee may reconvene the national convention for the purpose of filling any such vacancies.

(b) In voting under this rule, the Republican National Committee members representing any state shall be entitled to
cast the same number of votes as said state was entitled to cast at the national convention.

(c) In the event that the members of the Republican National Committee from any state shall not be in agreement in the casting of votes hereunder, the votes of such state shall be divided equally, including fractional votes, among the members of the Republican National Committee present or voting by proxy.

(d) No candidate shall be chosen to fill any such vacancy except upon receiving a majority of the votes entitled to be
cast in the election.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

______________

The obvious first choice would be Paul Ryan, the only guy smart enough to sit this one out. But he might just be smart enough to continue sitting it out. They all hate Ted Cruz, so he won't be seriously considered. Rubio is now committed to a critical Senate race that Republicans have to win. Christie might be able to make a good case for it, as well as Kasich.

But so too could Jeb!, who is still sitting on a mountain of campaign cash, assuming he hasn't blown it all yet. Even better, it would be right up Rove's alley, the ultimate back-room deal for all the marbles, the way he's always tried to game it.

There is still nearly 100 days left in this campaign and the RNC would like nothing better than a do-over, without the input of the mere people they so despise. So the pressure on Trump to drop out will soon be coming from all angles, if my guess about his transgressions are correct.

By the way, if I call this one correct, DU gods, I will wish to change my screen name....

I'm not so sure about that, this time.

Trump isn't the son of a CIA director, surrounded by Defense industry magnates. He hasn't been nearly as able to conceal his financial relationship with the foreign entity performing the illegal acts, as Bush was able to conceal his prior financial relationship with Saudi Arabia and the bin Ladens.

Instead, he's surrounded by a bunch of knuckle-dragging racists and minor-league political managers--and servants of a foreign nuclear power--who appear to be at least as unaware of the definition of espionage as Donald Trump himself is unaware.

I am beginning to suspect that Trump is about to have a sit-down with the FBI, and they're going to offer him a deal: dropping out of the race would serve national security interests without having to imprison him for life.

I'm pretty sure he'll take that deal.

If it happens, it's going to happen fast, fast, fast, because if he wins he can exonerate himself, grant himself security clearances, and be protected from impeachment by the Republican Congress. The GOP could be brought on board with the prospect of being able to put together a second convention (in 2008 the conventions were in September).

If one Russian hacker worked directly with the Trump campaign...

... That's espionage:

(b) Whoever, for the purpose aforesaid, and with like intent or reason to believe, copies, takes, makes, or obtains, or attempts to copy, take, make, or obtain, any sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, document, writing, or note of anything connected with the national defense; or

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793

Recall that Trump and Clinton are running for the office of Commander in Chief, so the email server break-in is inextricably connected to the national defense.

Also note that at the Republican Convention, Trump staffers intervened and removed language calling for material aid to the Ukraine:

"Trump staffers in the room, who are not delegates but are there to oversee the process, intervened," Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin wrote of the meeting at which the wording was changed. "By working with pro-Trump delegates, they were able to get the issue tabled while they devised a method to roll back the language."

http://www.voanews.com/content/proposed-gop-stance-on-ukraine-sparks-controversy/3429297.html

So there is already circumstantial evidence for collusion between Trump and the Russians.

And there is no statute of limitations, either. This will hang over Trump's head for the rest of his life.

Couldn't be happier!

Cruz won a solid 25% of the hardest-core, formerly-sure-to-vote Republicans in the Primaries this year, 7,800,000 votes. Trump won only 45% of all Republican primary voters, 14,000,000. A further 7 million voted for someone else entirely. The need to unify the base was never stronger.

With the renewal of his attacks, and thanks to his childishly thin skin, Trump went a long way toward alienating one quarter to one half of his most ardent supporters. Who knows how many millions in donations that represents.

It was a clever move on Cruz's part, too, and one sure to work for us in the long run. He also is hated and feared by Republican managers, yet he just went a long way toward losing the election for the GOP this time and placed himself as an automatic front-runner in the next election, which he will also lose.

It's as close as we will get to a guaranteed eight-year term for Hillary Clinton. Because the politics of division never adds up!

I think is was a guarantee of payment

Trump is notorious for not paying, and I think the ghostwriter deliberately poisoned and rickrolled the document as a first draft, with the final to be delivered on payment. The Trumps liked the first draft, stiffed the writer, and NOW they're paying for it, for sure.

It took the Visigoths 3 days to finish the Sack of Rome...

... While the Sack of Shit has four.

Please feel free to post your deep thoughts on the Republican Convention here for our amusement.

Are you not entertained?

What?! Holy CRAP!

From that one move, several early guesses can be made:

* Removing a speaker from the list is about as big a tell as you can show in the VP guessing game (unless you're Republican and Tim Tebow backs out on you). Furthermore, the timing of this move suggests that it is intentional, designed to tip off the press and tealeaf-readers so that pollsters can run their hypothetical matchup scenarios. It injects enthusiasm into Democrats and shows the general lack of finesse in the Republican pick, and keeps people looking ahead to the Democratic Convention while the dumpster fire burns. Warren can easily be added back to the speaker list if this is a head-fake, but it risks upsetting those of us who would consider the pick of Warren to be an excellent one.

* As best I can tell, Mass. election law now allows for an interim gubernatorial appointment, for up to 160 days, at which point a special election must be held. The current governor is Republican, and his appointment will have a leg up in the next regular election, and he may be able to run in the special election as well. Picking Warren would concede a large but not insurmountable advantage to the Massachusetts Republicans. Democrats must feel confident that Warren's position can be refilled by another Democrat in mid-2017.

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vacancies-in-the-united-states-senate.aspx

* Assuming a win, the move would also promote the highly competent Ed Markey to the position of senior Senator from Massachusetts, which certainly puts him in a position for higher office or future cabinet posts. Markey got his current post through a clever double-move by the Obama Administration after the death of Ted Kennedy, in which they moved John Kerry to Secretary of State and created two new powerhouse Senators (Warren and Markey) with the move.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=263986

* Democrats cannot make a move like this without conceding territory in the Senate, temporarily. That, in turn, could dramatically influence the course of events that President Clinton can follow in her first five months... UNLESS your internal polling suggests that Democrats are going to wind up holding somewhere around 53-59 seats in the Senate. That range is enough to control business in the Senate, but not enough to override a filibuster. It provides some padding to give a seat away, temporarily. The Warren hand-tip suggests that Democrats are now very confident about regaining a strong majority in the Senate.

* In retrospect it appears as if Mrs. Clinton has been carefully judging the reactions of voters as she appeared with or dangled potential running mates, including Tim Kaine just last week. I recall a hypothetical scenario poll from much earlier in the year that suggested that a Clinton/Warren ticket could defeat any combination of Republicans.

* Democrats must also have noted something about the "misogyny vector" which works in our favor. My current assumption is that the racists are the misogynists, so that doubling down on a female ticket doesn't change any minds on the Republican side, but it must have a net positive effect on Democratic and undecided voters. That squares well with my own personal bias, though, so it's not a solid guess like some of the above.

The Senate will sorely miss Mrs. Warren, if she accepts the nomination as running-mate. But Ed Markey is a superb replacement as senior Senator and Massachusetts has a deep bag of competent leadership which can replace Warren. Democrats must feel considerably more confident about the upcoming elections than I suspected, for Warren is an intrepid and potentially risky choice in several ways. Wonderful!

Heh, it WAS a head-fake!

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-midnight-calls-pence-change-mind

What I failed to account for is Trump's incompetence. One must never underestimate the power of stupid.
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