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NRaleighLiberal

Profile Information

Name: Craig
Gender: Male
Hometown: NC
Home country: USA
Member since: Wed Apr 14, 2004, 07:48 AM
Number of posts: 34,538

About Me

Avid gardener - first book - Epic Tomatoes - will be available (Storey Publishing) in December 2014. Also...love of movies, music, wine/beer/coffee (home roaster). 2 dogs...3 indoor cats. Retired from the corporate world!!!!

Journal Archives

For the nostalgic - Mitt Romney's Greatest Hits (a truly WTF video experience)

And this numbskull garnered HOW MANY votes? Take a look at this and relish the fact that he was defeated....the alternative is truly frightening!

&feature=youtu.be
Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:57 PM (7 replies)

It feels different, doesn't it....

It is wonderful to be able to bask in the joy of our president's reelection - made so sweet that it was the defeat of the lies of Romney and Ryan, the smack down of the super-rich entitled spoiled brat family, and the pissed away zillions of the most odious of all, swollen pimple called Rove.

But...I am also spending just a bit of mental time wandering, no polls to check every 15 or 20 minutes, no nervous, anxious energy expended on reading how the media is going to puff up Romney, or distort Obama. This is OUR transition time, isn't it - from fighting and perhaps worrying mode to.... getting back to our "real" lives (or at least spending more time being less distracted - my wife certainly noticed me just looking a bit vacant over the last two days).

So DU can transition (it already is, of course) to our local battles, perhaps (such as, for us in NC, seeing the odious Art Pope on stage with our new "I smell something bad face" governor McCrory - wondering how we can find some decent Dem politicians that can win in NC and stem the local red tide.

Or, to put it another way....this is the let down phase. Wonder how long it will last?

But doesn't it feel great!

Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:47 AM (4 replies)

Read so many "why Romney lost" columns - (a Yahoo link below, for ex) - NONE stated the magic word.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-race-slipped-away-from-romney.html

Not one said the word. And what is it? LIES. Not a single column I read (unless it was very left-leaning, and I'm not certain on that one either) mentioned that essentially everything out of his mouth - and all of the ads that supported him and attacked president Obama - were based on flat out lies. Lies about his record, his previous speeches, our President's record. Lies.

Maybe we are all so jaded and ad-flooded that we assume that all politicians lie all the time (that false equivalence thing, so annoying)....but maybe, just maybe, enough people saw through the lies and decided that the country could not flourish at all under a serial liar.

And that is why all of Rove/other's zillions couldn't buy this election. Just maybe.
Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:10 PM (13 replies)

One of the most odd and tone-deaf memes I heard today about Obama's victory -

I think it was Talk of the Nation, and I am thinking it was the Pew research fellow - "the Obama campaign went after Romney early and made it about him and how disconnected he is from the average American" etc. - and that "incumbent presidents always run on their record, it is unprecedented to run on just attacking the competitor". Which of course leaves unsaid but can be extrapolated- that there is no record to run on. And - never, ever a mention of non-stop obstruction from the right.

This just follows a common theme I've heard - I heard it on Diane Rehm's show today - no one ever talks about the fact that there WERE NO LIES in Obama's ads. And that Romney's entire platform - everything he said, was lies. Throughout the entire campaign, rarely was the Romney campaign ever truly called out for their lies, or the Obama campaign for its honesty.

So the pundits today continued to play equivalence - "both sides do it", "both sides lie", "both sides have principles and are of equal value". This is just wrong - this is what the public must be fed up with (the left part), and what drives the hubris and nastiness of right wing hate radio.

Amazing that if the show was on the other foot, they would have still found a way to spin it against Obama, I am sure.

So on day 1, if the question is "did the media and pundits get the message that the electorate sent"?

The answer, sadly, from what I heard, is "NO".
Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Wed Nov 7, 2012, 07:23 PM (3 replies)

this election is a HUGE mandate - for decency, for empathy, for inclusiveness -

for science and curiosity and learning, for ALL Americans, not just rich white straight Christian men, or the hypocritical deluded teabaggers, or brainwashed 24 hour Faux watchers.

Let's get rid of the filibuster, let's use the Dems new-found toughness, and support President Obama to finish all that was started - and make it even better - over the next four years.

Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Wed Nov 7, 2012, 12:24 AM (6 replies)

History of how 5 election poll aggregate or betting sites moved from Thurs Nov 1 to Today

Lots of the data below - made it easy with some summaries up top. My call, by the way- election will be called 11:15 tonight EST for Obama, with an eventual total of 347 EVs.

Summaries:

Intrade - Thurs Nov 1 9 AM 67.8, today Nov 6 1:30 PM 70. In between range, 64.1-71. Obama 303 EVs, NC red, FL pink
Princeton - Thurs 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win , today Nov 6 final update 312, 100% - has NC pink, FL too close to call
538 blog - Thurs 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast), today final update 313 (90.9) - has NC pink, FL pale blue
Polltracker (TPM) - Thurs 9 AM - 303 EVs, today final update 290 with VA, NC and FL too close to call
Huffpost - Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs, today final update 277 with CO, NH, VA, NC and FL too close to call

_____________________________________________

Intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Thurs Nov 1
9:48 EST - 67.8%
12:20 PM - 68.2%
3 PM - 66.8
5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in)
9 PM 64.9
10 PM 66.7
11:30 PM 67.4

Friday Nov 2
Fri 9:30 AM 68.3
1:20 PM 66
4:45 PM 66.8
10 PM 67.5

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 67.5
1 PM 66.8
3:30 PM 66.9
5 PM 67.5
10 PM 66.5

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 64.1
noon 65.5
2:30 PM 64.8
4:45 PM 65.5
6:45 PM 64.9
9:30 PM 64.0

Monday Nov 5
9 AM 66.7
noon 66.2
3 PM 67.1
7 PM 68.5 (was in the low 70s earlier)

Tuesday Nov 6 - THE BIG DAY
8:30 71% (was in the mid 70s earlier)
1 PM 69.5

________________________________________________________________________________

Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/

Thurs Nov 1
8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win
noon 312 EVs, 99.1%
3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%)
8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)
11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)

Fri Nov 2
8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%)
noon 318, 99.3
4:45 PM 319, 99.5
8 PM 319, 99.6

Sat Nov 3
9:30 am 323 EVs, 99.8%
noon 323, 99.8
3:30 PM 323, 99.8
5 PM 323, 99.8
10 PM 323, 99.8

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 319, 99.9
noon 319, 99.9
4:45 PM 318, 99.8
9:30 PM 303, 99.9

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 305 99.8
10 AM 305 99.8
noon 303, 99.9
7 PM 310 99.9

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 312 100% !!!!!!!
1 PM 312 100%
________________________________________________________________________________________

538 blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Thurs Nov 1
12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast)
9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast)
11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast)

Fri Nov 2
7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5
8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7)
11:30 PM 304.8, 82.7 (305, 83.9)

Sat Nov 3
12:45 AM 305.3 83.7%

Sun Nov 4
8 AM 306.9, 85.1 (now cast 307.2, 86.6)
7 PM 306.4 85.5 (307.7, 87.5)

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 307.2 (86.3) (308.4, 88)

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 314.6 (91.6%)
1 PM 313 (90.9)

_________________________________________________________________________________

Polltracker (TPM site) http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

Thurs Nov 1
9 AM - 303 EVs
4 PM 285 EVs
10 PM 285

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM 276
1:30 PM 285
4:45 PM 285
9:30 PM 285

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 303 EVs

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 303
noon 303
2:30 PM 303

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 303
noon 281 (CO back to tossup, as well as NC, FL, VA)
3 PM 290

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 290
1 PM 290
___________________________________________________________________________________

Huff post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
Thurs Nov 1
7 AM - Obama 277 EVs
5 PM Obama 277 EVs
11 PM - 277

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM - 259
12:30 PM - 259
2 PM 277
4:45 PM 277
5:45 PM 281
9:30 PM 281

Sat No 3
9:30 AM 277 EV
1 PM 277
3:30 PM 281
10 PM 277

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 277
noon 277
2:30 PM 277

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 277
noon 277
3 PM 277

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 277
1 PM 277
_________________________________________________________________________________

Everyone Vote! My prediction - Obama victory called at 11:15 PM tonight - will end up with 347 EVs

GOTV!
Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:49 PM (2 replies)

Predictions, anyone? First thoughts on Tues PM, EST.. Timings!

7 PM - VT poll closes - Obama 3

7:30 - OH and NC close, too close to call

8 PM - CT, DE, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, RI, DC for Obama, taking him to 79

FL, MO, NH, PA will be too close to call at 8

9 PM - NY takes Obama to 108

Between 9-10 PA goes to Obama taking him to 128

CO, MI, MN, NM, WI too close to call

10 PM - IA and NV too close to call

between 10-11, Obama picks up OH, MI, MN, NM and WI - takes Obama to 187

11 PM - CA, HI, OR, WA to Obama, taking him to 265

between 11-12, NV to Obama - puts him at 271 - then come VA, NC, FL, NH, IA, and CO - final total 347 EVs.

Let's say that the election is called at 11:15.....

Optimistic? that's my current guess - you have it here!

Posted by NRaleighLiberal | Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:07 PM (13 replies)
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