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Member since: Mon Apr 5, 2004, 04:58 PM
Number of posts: 23,166

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538/Nate Silver-We Got Berned (this article does not help the Sanders position)

I actually read all of the article and more importantely understood it. The last thres paragraphs are set forth below and this article is not something that the Sanders people should be happy about http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

And guess what? They sorta have a point. Although his gains may not be as great as before, polls in August showed Sanders continuing to pick up support in New Hampshire (the situation in Iowa is less clear). But the fundamentals of the race havenít changed very much. In particular, Sanders has shown little sign of winning over votes from African-Americans or Hispanics, which would limit his growth as the race moves on to more racially diverse states.....

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasnít made any inroads with non-white voters ó in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obamaís toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsosís weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clintonís edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.

There are other indications that Sanders is unlikely to win the nomination. He hasnít won a single endorsement from a governor, senator or member of the U.S. House of Representatives (unlike Obama at this point in the 2008 campaign). Sanders is also well behind in the money race (again, unlike Obama). These indicators havenít changed over the past month.

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you canít win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Why are the Sanders' supporters so happy about this article??? Sanders is not going to be the nominee of the Democratic party.

4 State Parties Sign Fund-Raising Pacts With Clinton Campaign

The Sanders people are upset about this http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251547069 The NYT article is at http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/08/25/4-state-parties-sign-victory-fund-pacts-with-clinton-campaign/

In 2014, the Texas Democratic Party had such an agreement with Wendy Davis. I have forwarded this article to three or four members of the Texas Democratic Party executive committee. As some point, I bet that the Texas Democratic Party will enter into a similar arrangement with the Clinton campaign.

If you know people in your state party's leadership, suggest this idea.

Rand Paul sells Kentucky GOP on presidential caucus

Source: Washington Post

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) avoided a major headache Saturday after Kentucky Republican Party approved a rule change that would allow him to run for president while seeking reelection to his Senate seat.

"I applaud the Republican Party of Kentucky on their decision to hold a caucus in the upcoming Republican presidential cycle," Paul said in a statement. "The people of Kentucky deserve a voice as the GOP chooses their next nominee, and holding a caucus will ensure that Kentucky is relevant and participates early in the process."

The party's central committee approved Kentucky's first-ever presidential caucus for March 5, 2016. The vote was 111 to 36, a stronger showing than expected, after a drama that took most of the day -- ending just 20 minutes before the meeting had to end. Two-third of the central committee were needed to approve the caucus.

Paul himself attended the vote at Frankfort, Kentucky's Capital Plaza, lobbying in person for the right to remain a 2016 candidate without further turmoil. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has endorsed his colleague's presidential bid, endorsed the caucus, and dispatched his state director to say so at the meeting.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/22/rand-paul-caucus-set-for-march/

If the Kentucky GOP had not agreed, then Rand Paul would have to drop out of the POTUS race Now Paul has to pay for the caucus when his fundraising has been weak.

Jeb Bush Super PAC Sends Mailer To 86,000 Iowans With Jebís Head Photoshopped Onto A Black Body

Jeb is making a ton of unforced errors. Evidently the super pac is worried that Jeb is a wimp and wanted him to look more buff. The photo shop effort failed http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/08/21/3694173/jeb-bush-super-pac-sends-mailer-to-86000-iowans-with-jebs-head-photoshopped-onto-a-black-body/

Jeb Bush has been lagging in the polls, trailing Donald Trump by a wide margin nationally and in early states.
Nevertheless, heís still considered one of the most likely eventual nominees by pundits and political experts. One reason why is his Super PAC, Right To Rise, which has raised over $100 million, dwarfing his competitors.

But having money is one thing. Spending it wisely is another.

Yesterday, Right To Rise announced they were sending a mailer to 86,000 Iowa households touting Bushís candidacy.

A closer examination, however, shows that the flier features Jebís head photoshopped onto a black manís body. In the flier, one of Jebís hands clearly belongs to a black man.

This will be fun to laugh at

Jeb Bush Super PAC Sends Mailer To 86,000 Iowans With Jebís Head Photoshopped Onto A Black Body

Source: Think Progress

Jeb Bush has been lagging in the polls, trailing Donald Trump by a wide margin nationally and in early states.
Nevertheless, heís still considered one of the most likely eventual nominees by pundits and political experts. One reason why is his Super PAC, Right To Rise, which has raised over $100 million, dwarfing his competitors.

But having money is one thing. Spending it wisely is another.

Yesterday, Right To Rise announced they were sending a mailer to 86,000 Iowa households touting Bushís candidacy.''

Read more: http://thinkprogress.org/election/2015/08/21/3694173/jeb-bush-super-pac-sends-mailer-to-86000-iowans-with-jebs-head-photoshopped-onto-a-black-body/

Jeb is making a ton of unforced errors

My County Party Chair had interesting/bizarre expierence

I live in Texas in a suburb of Houston and my county party chair (the husband of Juanita Jean) went to a Sanders event at the University of Houston. The reaction of the local paper to this event was bizarre but saya a great deal about Texas http://www.democraticunderground.com/107827740 I like Sanders but I am supporting Hillary in large part because I know how Texas would react to Sanders being the nominee

COMMENTARY: Thereís No Room for Socialism in Fort Bend County

I live in Fort Bend and I am friends with Juanita Jean and her husband (aka Bubba) who is my county democratic party chair. Both Juanita Jean and Bubba are on the SDEC and so are staying neutral as to any fight between Hillary Clinton, Sanders or O'Malley. Bubba went to the Bernie Sanders event last month at the University of Houston and the reaction of the local Fort Bend paper to this says a great deal about how Sanders would play in Texas (hint the word socialist does not play well in Texas) http://www.fortbendstar.com/2015/08/05/theres-no-room-for-socialism-in-fort-bend-county/

Bankston, for his part, said heís just towing the party line, not endorsing a candidate and would attend a rally if any of the Democratic presidential candidates came to town.

ďAs to Senator Sanders, I donít worry about labels Ė that is the job of Fox News,Ē Bankston said...

The Democrats havenít expressed the same type of disdain for Americaís Most Popular Socialist.
Fort Bend has become one of the strongest economic counties in America due to a robust economy, boosted by a free market.

If the County remains Republican or features a mix of Republicans or Democrats, that momentum can continue.
But Fort Bend canít sustain itís success with any type of Socialism, so why even give such a candidate credence by attending his event and posting ďFeel The BernĒ to thousands on social media?

Again, while I like Sanders I do not think that he is electable and the concept of socialism really did not play well in my part of Texas.

HRC Room Post- We are starting a grassroots club to support Hillary in my county

The first meeting is this Saturday http://us7.campaign-archive1.com/?u=8e365e60b6cc4650c758fbebf&id=735d0d0a10&e=af9feac7e8

We are announcing an organizational meeting of all people in Fort Bend County interested in promoting and electing Hillary Clinton. This will be a purely grassroots effort to educate voters about Hillary Clinton, register voters, ensure a fair election, and proudly show our support for Hillary.

Date: Saturday, July 11th
Time: 2:00 pm
Location: University Branch Library, 14010 University Blvd., Sugar Land,
Room 2 downstairs

Why 2016 will be a Supreme Court election

One of the key issues that I am considering in the upcoming primary contest is the control of the SCOTUS. The recent 5 to 4 decisions that came down last week and the week before show how important the SCOTUS is ad the control of the SCOTUS will be determined by the 2016 election. http://theweek.com/articles/564891/why-2016-supreme-court-election

And in the next term, there are positive signs for the right. The justices have already agreed to hear a case that could put the final nail in affirmative action's coffin, as well as one that could cripple public sector unions. The justices are also likely to take one or more cases on restrictions at abortion clinics, and if they rule the way conservatives want, it could make abortions almost impossible to obtain in large swaths of the country.

All that is unlikely to banish the memory of the last couple of weeks from Republicans' minds, and you can bet that the GOP presidential candidates are going to have to promise primary voters that they'll deliver more Supreme Court justices like Alito, and fewer like Anthony Kennedy or even Roberts. If Democrats care about their own agenda, they ought to be no less motivated to vote by the prospect of changes in the court....

While it's possible that they all might decide to hold out until there's a president of their own party to replace them, infirmity or illness may make that impossible. And it's been an awfully long time since a president had the opportunity to change the court's course. The last time a Republican managed it was when George H.W. Bush appointed Clarence Thomas to replace the retiring Thurgood Marshall. And Democrats? Believe it or not, it's been over six decades since a Democratic president had the opportunity to replace a conservative justice; the last one to do it was John F. Kennedy, who appointed Byron White to a seat when Charles Evans Whittaker, who had been appointed by President Eisenhower, resigned in 1962.

If the next president gets that chance, no matter which party he or she comes from, it will profoundly affect the court's direction. If a Republican could appoint someone to replace Ginsburg or Breyer, it would mean a 6-3 conservative majority, which means that Kennedy would no longer be the swing vote and there would be a margin for error in every case. If a Democratic president were to replace Scalia or Kennedy, then the court would go from 5-4 in favor of the conservatives to 5-4 in favor of the liberals.

Those two outcomes would produce two radically different Supreme Courts, with implications that would shape American life for decades. If you think the court has been handling controversial and consequential cases lately, just you wait.

I remember when GHWBush replaced Thurgood Marshal with that idiot Clarence Thomas which started the shift of the court towards being far more conservative. If the GOP gets to pick the replacements for Breyer and RBG, then the court will tilted to the right for a very very long time. By the same measure, if a Democratic President gets to select Kennedy's or Scalia's replacment, then we will not have to worry about the gutting of the right to privacy or Roe v. Wade.

All but a couple of the abortion clinics in Texas were scheduled to be shut down on July 1 and these clinics are still open due to a 5 to 4 decision. Affirmative action, one man one vote and a host of important issues will be decided next year and I would hate to see the SCOTUS shift to being a 6 to 3 court in favor of the conservatives.

Texas Anti-Abortion ruling stayed by SCOTUS

Source: Supreme Court Website


Read more: https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2119688/14a1288-whole-womans-health-v-cole-zr.pdf

This just came out. HB2 is stayed by the SCOTUS. The 5th Circuit case was to take effect on Wednesday July 1
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