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Mayberry Machiavelli

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Member since: Sat Jan 17, 2004, 01:32 PM
Number of posts: 20,913

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Early Voting: Does the Obama Campaign ever bring people directly from a rally to vote?

Seems like it would be a good tactic in states like OH take advantage of President Obama's ability to draw big crowds.

Was this done in 2008?
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Thu Sep 27, 2012, 12:40 AM (4 replies)

Romney and the GOP are on the brink of a catastrophic loss of confidence.

They are on the verge of a "run on the banks" kind of phenomenon, with dejected voters staying home, SuperPAC money going downticket or sitting on the sidelines entirely, and big Democratic coattails. So I think the bullshit about "all these polls have the wrong party ID composition" is a desperate attempt to forestall or prevent this, to prevent the Fox News faithful from seeing that it's over and tuning out.

It's one thing to see someone like Dick Morris mouthing this stuff, even most freepers realize he just gets paid for telling right wingers what they want to hear. But it's yet another to hear Karl Rove go the Baghdad Bob route as I watched him do on Fox News tonight where he claimed that all the polling was wrong because of party ID and claiming that he saw Ohio and Florida as tossups. He's presented his state map strictly based on polling so far, I wonder if he will continue to do so now.

To see the full slate of Fox News heavy hitters like Rove pimping this "skewed polls" line shows me they are bailing water down in the bilge of the USS GOP.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Wed Sep 26, 2012, 11:16 PM (8 replies)

Someone on Twitter trolling the HELL out of new rightwing darling "Unskewedpolls.com".


This is pretty much the best use of Twitter, forget organizing revolts against dictators.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Mon Sep 24, 2012, 09:47 PM (10 replies)

Are there websites or YouTube channels that compile all the ads the campaigns and PACs run?

Preferably sorted by which "side" they are on?

Since I don't live in a swing state, I can't see the ads people are seeing in the battlegrounds unless someone points directly to them on YouTube or some website.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:01 PM (0 replies)

Reuters/Ipsos polls: Can anyone explain how their online polling works?

Their numbers seem to be in line with other pollsters, but I see the word "online" and my eyes start to involuntarily twitch with Zogby flashbacks.

Does Zogby polls still even exist as an outfit?
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Wed Sep 19, 2012, 10:29 PM (1 replies)

Polls: "Party ID" is to 2012 GOPers as "Land Lines/Cellphone" was to 2004 Democrats.

There seems to be certain things that are pervasive in the right-wing-o-sphere at the moment, to allow good GOP voters to hand wave or happy-talk bad polling numbers away.

The most prominent is this idea that all these polls (that show Democrats and Obama ahead) are wrong because the proportion of self identified Democrats vs. Republicans is disproportionately high according to some apparently arbitrary standard.

Here's an example from today, freepland - thread about Fox News polls showing Obama up in VA/OH/FL:


Virtually every post is "what about party ID?" "Huh? Thought so! Bad poll!"

Here is the example of the "reasoning" - freep threads on this topic seem to often cite articles from breitbart on the "voter party ID breakdown" issue:


Not to get into the merits too much but it's my understanding it's fallacious reasoning because there's no reason voter ID is a fixed property of the public and should be sampled with each poll and not "corrected". The correction is just doing more polls and sampling.

I'm just curious who is putting this out, I figure it has to be either Fox, Rush, or Drudge. Does anyone know?

The other big one is to cling to "Reagan was behind right up until election night, THEN look what happened!" which I understand to not exactly be true, not to mention that Romney is not exactly Reagan and Obama is not Carter.

I'm even seeing that old chestnut, the Bradley Effect, being trotted out, even though it didn't really materialize for Hillary or McCain in 2008.

I think cell phones WAS a confounding factor of polling, just not as big a one as I would have hoped in 2004, and the fact that pollsters are calling cell phones now is a strong indicator of that.

Oh well, hope springs eternal and all that.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:10 PM (5 replies)

"My job is not to worry about those people."

Easily the most damning quote. Easily made into TV commercials, web and print ads. Easily contrasted with Obama making a case to be President for red and blue America etc., and not just half the country.

Romney basically said that half the country can go fuck themselves because they are moochers and will never be on his side. A lot of these "47 percenters" who vote GOP will never feel that Romney is talking about them, of course he's talking about some poor black guy in Detroit as far as they're concerned, so I never expect something even as bad and obnoxious as this to end the race like some people seem to.

But the guy just comes off like the world's biggest entitled rich guy jerk, and that counts. Won't move the polls ten points or anything even though it should. But if the polls moved ONE point that might be enough. Or just were prevented from moving back in Romney's direction.

Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Tue Sep 18, 2012, 01:24 AM (3 replies)

I think this race may actually boil down to real policy differences this time.

Instead of SwiftBoat B.S.

Obama and the Democrats bailed out and saved the U.S. auto industry, Romney and the GOP were foursquare against this and on the record about it too.

Locks in MI and OH and PA, possibly WI too.

Even with Bush out of office four years now, a huge majority of Americans including most Republicans (whether they admit it or not) know that being at war all these years since 9/11 has hurt America way more than any positives that can be argued. Hurt both in the economy and in our reputation in the world.

So despite any attempts to "Carterize" our president over riots, the bellicose neocon rhetoric we are seeing and hearing these last few days is not well received, nor will Netanyahu's call for us to jump into military action be.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Sat Sep 15, 2012, 07:47 PM (7 replies)

A forum I frequent (where Sean Smith, killed in Benghazi, was a moderator) is ENRAGED at Romney.

It's personal because many knew this man in real life but most of us through the online world (he was an outstanding poster and moderator, there was a little piece on him at the end of the Ed Schultz show tonight), Romney's attempt to wave his bloody shirt in the cause of his own benighted candidacy is offensive on a deeply personal level.

Romney's pitiful efforts since yesterday have spurred tons of donations to Obama from members as well as stimulating a lot of indifferent folks who were going to go third party or sit things out to commit to voting for Obama and Biden.

I can't expect this type of thing would happen everywhere because it's a uniquely personal thing at SomethingAwful forums. But overnight the mood there has gone from pleasant bemusement at Romney's pitiful campaign to real anger.
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Wed Sep 12, 2012, 09:54 PM (16 replies)

I recently saw a clip of Romney (?2004ish?) saying foreign policy was reserved for the White House.

Something to that effect, basically saying Democrats should keep quiet and defer to the Bush administration on foreign policy since they were in power and the country should have a unified voice in the White House on foreign affairs.

I'm guessing it must have been around the time of the RNC but not sure, could've been CPAC or something else like that.

Anyone know what I'm talking about or can help find the clip?
Posted by Mayberry Machiavelli | Wed Sep 12, 2012, 09:27 AM (1 replies)
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