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Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 15,315

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The "Electability" Argument Is Dead

The "Electability" Argument Is Dead: All the Polls Show Bernie Does Better Against GOP Than Hillary

You hear this a lot: "I would vote for Bernie, but he's just not electable. We need a candidate who can beat the GOP." Sounds reasonable enough, right? So I started digging into the data. And it turns out, that not only does Hillary not poll better against GOP candidates than Bernie, but Bernie consistently polls better than she does.

A quick note on methodology: I am using only pollsters that use live pollsters and include cell phones because they have the best track record. I am not including any internet pollsters because some people don't trust them for some reason, even though they also have a pretty good track record. Robo-pollsters like PPP, have the worst track record and are therefore not included, even though PPP has stated over and over that Sanders runs just as well as, or better than, Clinton. See here and here. Also, I am only using recent data: only polls since September.

Before I start, keep in mind that pollsters, in their infinite wisdom, were often polling Biden, a non-candidate in head to heads, but not Sanders. As a result, there are fewer general election polls testing Sanders. However, there are some early-state polls that test general election head to heads.


The Hole in Hillary’s Flip-Flop Excuse

The Hole in Hillary’s Flip-Flop Excuse

She keeps saying new information makes her change her mind on policy. But what new information?

Hillary Clinton has a propensity to change her mind on big issues. She has reversed her positions on gay marriage, immigration, gun control, the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, mass incarceration and the Iraq War, and some believe her recent stand on the Keystone XL pipeline constitutes a flip, too.

Everybody agrees that changing facts can justify a change in one’s view. But Clinton’s insistence that learning about “new” or “better” information propels her reassessments prompts this question: What was the new information?

To my knowledge, no new “information” about gay marriage emerged from the day she endorsed civil unions for same-sex couples to the day she demanded the right to same-sex marriage. The immigration, gun control and mass-incarceration issues have been similarly unrippled by shocking new findings. Likewise, the information required to make a stand against the Iraq War was not hidden. Other senators found it and took that position! Perhaps the anti-war information escaped Clinton’s notice—in which case, bad on her—or perhaps she viewed it and decided not to act on it—in which case, double-bad on her. And who among us had a better vantage from which to assemble an encyclopedic view on the Trans-Pacific Partnership than Clinton? She praised it endlessly while secretary of state, but pulled a moonshiner’s turn last week to skedaddle away from it.

If Clinton lived in Gobles, Michigan, had no library card and no Internet connection, we could accept her new-information excuse. But for the past 25 years, Clinton has had some of the best researchers at her disposal—a private staff, a campaign staff, the wizards at the State Department staff, a senatorial staff, the busy beavers from the Congressional Research Service and the White House staff. And, in fact, every indication and story we know about Hillary Clinton’s policy work belabors just how much she studies and learns. So if new or better information has been the impetus for her policy shifts, she must concede that she has a fat history of taking the wrong position in the early going and then requiring a re-do. The constant need for re-dos appears to indicate that she’d make a lousy surgeon and a bad 3 a.m. president.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/democratic-debate-hillary-clinton-flip-flop-213247#ixzz3qumxy6T2

Police Brutality vs: Social Media and You Tube

Generations of Bigots hiding behind the badge

Police Brutality was recorded as far back as the Anti-Vietnam War demonstrations by national media outlets. It culminated in the mass murder at Kent St. Back then police often bragged about bashing heads with their batons. Today they have escalated to using any excuse they can to pull out their weapon and use a child for target practice.

Now they are trying to claim the national outcry and protest against police violence is emboldening criminals, and diminishing their capacity to police.

Remember when we had a President who help the 1% during economic recession

My Grandfather was able to keep the family home thanks to FDR's programs

So if I don't get all warm and fuzzy over economic programs that have handed over 1 million homes to Wall St and Foreign investors while completely ignoring the plight of America's Working Class - don't be surprised

This program worked - and was a proven example of what to do in economic crisis

Mortgage Loan Crisis: FDR’s answer would prove useful today

Once upon a time, there was a nation where, during an era of prosperity, large numbers of citizens used short-term, interest-only loans to purchase their homes. They apparently were unaware that once the good times ended, they would be saddled with unbearable debt. Which is exactly what happened in America roughly 75 years ago.

Roosevelt’s real goal was to create stability from both an economic and social perspective. With the HOLC and the Federal Housing Administration, his administration created the long-term loan, which soon evolved into the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. The local business community praised the program, which not only helped people keep their homes, but also provided employment for construction workers. From 1933 to 1936, more than 1 million people relied on HOLC loans. Close to 80 percent of the borrowers made good on their payments and kept their houses. When the HOLC shut down in 1951, it returned a slight profit to the government.

Many of the elements of the Home Owners Refinancing Act, which created the HOLC, would be useful today. Although foreclosure rates of the early 1930s still tower over today’s rates, foreclosures and defaults are advancing at a dangerous pace, as borrowers struggle to keep up with their adjustable-rate mortgages. “Our problems of today do not begin to approach those of 1933,” Kevin Pollock, a fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, told Congress last year. “But I suggest that HOLC could be usefully studied by anybody thinking about this issue.”


Will Hilary continue the "Trickle Down Recovery" for the 99%

Not that it hasn't worked out very well for the 1% - but as everyone in this country can tell you Work Class Wages have gone down - A LOT

Negative $4,019

The Obama years have been brutal on middle-class incomes.

The Presidential race is boiling down to one dominant issue: which party's policies will do more to help the financially stressed American middle class. President Obama's campaign theme is that Mitt Romney and the Republicans cater to the rich, while Mr. Obama cares about struggling families.


Reminds me of the joke

Mam don't let anybody tell you that ain't the greatest thing in the whole wide world - but I don't think I can take ....

Lets talk about Corporate Socializm

Nice Sweet-Heart Tax Free earnings thanks to the numerous "Off Shore" tax loop-holes that allows Corporations like GE "Unlimited" access to US markets and unlimited use of USA infrastructure without paying $.01 in Taxes

Tax payer funded Bail-Out of the "Too Big to Fail Wall St Banking Industry", AIG Loop-Hole insurance for casino like investments that paid out $Billions to Foreign investors.

Electronics industry receiving R&D tax credits while Out-Sourcing production

Big Pharma granted "Indefinite Term Patent Rights" for drugs so Sleazy Fund Managers can hike up drug prices forcing the working class funded Medicare program to pay out $Billions in additional cost

We got PLENTY of socialism in this country - its just that the working class has to pay for it

Bernie has already Won

Lets be honest - do you think any of the candidates would be talking about "Income inequality" if Bernie was not in the race bringing the issue front and center to the American public

or Free College tuition

or Paid maternity leave

These were issues Democratic candidates dared not mention in fear of the GOP backlash yet they are issues Bernie has held dear to his heart to bring to the American people for decades.

Without Bernie in the race all we would be hearing about is finding "Middle Ground" with a bunch of Tea Farty fanatics

All you need to know about "Bush keeping us Safe"

When I take action I’m not going to fire a $2 million missile at a $10 empty tent and hit a camel in the butt

As the rightwing tries to spin this as a problem left over from the Clinton administration that Bill failed to address. Lets just get the facts straight. George willfully ignored the problem and even made jest of Bill Clinton's efforts to take out Osama Ben Lauden

Baltimore police district commander shoots man in Morrell Park - (Improved Policing)

Will at least this time the Officer Involved did not pump 6 more shots into him while he lay on the ground to make sure he was dead

Baltimore police district commander shoots man in Morrell Park

A commander of the Baltimore police department's Southwest District shot a man in the leg in the Morrell Park neighborhood on Monday night, police said..

Police on Tuesday morning identified the officer as Major Byron Conaway, a district commander and a 16-year-veteran of the department. He will be placed on routine administrative duties.

It's unclear why Conaway stopped the man, police said. The man refused to show the officer his hands on command, and he fired once, striking him in the leg, police said. The wound is nonfatal, police said. No weapon was found on the man, police said.

Ronald Birmingham, 41, said the victim was his brother, John Joseph Rau, 40. He said Rau had just stopped by Birmingham's porch a block away for a cigarette before he was shot.

"He got up off the steps, he walked up the street. There was a crowd coming down the street, the officer jumped out and told my brother to put his hands up," Birmingham said. "He put his hands up, and he shot him."


Economic Collapse Will Limit Climate Change, Predicts Climate Scientist

Economic Collapse Will Limit Climate Change, Predicts Climate Scientist

A World Bank report, authored by climate scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and released in late 2014, drew on 1,300 publications and concluded: "There is a considerable likelihood of warming reaching 4°C above pre-industrial levels within this century"

"Crop yields are expected to decline by 30 percent with 1.5-2°C warming and up to 60 percent with 3-4°C warming."

Marginal rain-fed cropland will be abandoned or transformed into grazing land. Current grazing land may become unsuitable for any agricultural activity.

With a 4°C average world temperature, in parts of Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq mean summer temperatures are expected to be up to 8°C warmer, and in the 2071-2099 period, by 2100 65% of summer months will see unprecedented heat extremes, and by 2100, percentages rises to 80%.

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