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jmowreader

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Member since: 2002
Number of posts: 33,323

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I did an analysis of pledged delegates left in the race

Sanders fans hate superdelegates, every man jack of them. So I set them all aside to attempt to answer this question: Just how fucked is Bernie anyway?

Executive summary: He's not quite as fucked as fucked can be, but he's pretty fucked.

It takes 2,383 delegates of all stripes to win the nomination. Hillary currently has 1,280 pledged delegates and needs 1,103 more to take the nomination without one superdelegate. For calculation sake, I gave Hillary 65 percent of the states she'll probably win and 40 percent of the ones she'll probably lose.

As we speak, there are 21 contests left to go.

Wyoming: 14 pledged delegates available, she should take 4. 1099 to go.

New York: 247 pledged delegates available, she should take 160. 939 to go.

Connecticut: 55 pledged; Hillary should take 36. 903 to go.

Delaware: 21 pledged; Hillary should take 14. 889 to go.

Maryland: 95 pledged; Hilary should take 62. 827 to go.

Pennsylvania: 189 pledged; Hillary should take 123. 704 to go.

Rhode Island: 24 pledged; Hillary should take 16. 688 to go.

Indiana: I expect her to lose this right-wing state. 83 pledged; she takes 37. 651 to go.

Guam: The Sanders campaign stepped in it this week here. They have seven and she gets six. 645 to go.

WV: She'll lose this one too. Twenty-nine delegates are available; she takes 12. 633 to go.

KY: I think they'll split this one evenly. 55 are available and she takes 28. 605 to go.

Oregon: I think she loses this state. They have 61 and she gets 25. 580 to go.

Virgin Islands: Because it's an open caucus, she gets 40 percent of the vote - seven delegates, three to her. 577 to go.

Puerto Rico caucus: They have 60 and she gets 24. 550 to go.

California: The state's too big to ratfuck successfully. 475 available, Hillary takes 309. 241 to go.

Montana: He has this one. 21 available, she gets 8. 233 to go.

New Jersey: Sorry, Bernie. 126 available, 82 to her. 151 to go.

New Mexico: I think this one's his. 34 available, 13 to her. 138 to go.

North Dakota: Caucus. 18 total, 7 to her. 131 to go.

South Dakota: As bad as North Dakota...20 available, 8 to her. 123 to go.

Washington, DC: I think he gets stomped here. 20 available, 15 to her. 108 remaining.

Here's where it gets fun: The four biggest states still in the race are NY, PA, CA and NJ.
Remaining delegates:
NY 87
PA 66
CA 166
NJ 44
Total 363
If she can convert 30 percent of the delegates I don't predict her getting to Hillary delegates, she ends up with 2384 pledged delegates - exactly one more than she needs WITHOUT relying on one superdelegate.

There's probably a 70 percent chance of her coming to Philadelphia with less than 2383 pledged delegates, but there's essentially NO chance Bernie wins this thing - even if he seizes all her superdelegates.

Patty Duke's obituary

http://cdapress.com/obituaries/article_374d58ed-d4d7-5b36-9ff7-951c43af9a9c.html

Apparently the last "God's Not Dead" movie didn't create enough atheists...

God's Not Dead is the heart-rending two-hour live-action version of a Chick tract - it's called Big Daddy and you can read it on Jack's website, but please don't blame me if you rip your eyeballs out to ease the pain. Even the most solid Christians agree that God may not be dead now, but if He ever watches this atrocity He's going to start looking for bridges He can jump from...

Unfortunately, the God-awful thing did 30x production costs so they made another one. And from everything I can find about it, it's just as bad as the last one.

Republicans legalize nationwide concealed carry of machine guns

Washington (Spurious News Network) -- "We finally decided to make the Second Amendment mean what it says," said Wayne La Pierre, de facto head of the Republican Party.

"The Second Amendment says, 'A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.' There is no question that a well-regulated militia, if it is to be necessary to the security of a free state, would be armed not with muskets and swords but with machine guns, tanks, field artillery, antiaircraft guns, nerve gas, and missiles. We had no choice but to legalize them all."

Under the Republicans' new law, which takes effect immediately, "no weapon which is allowed under the Geneva Convention to be used by any military force shall be forbidden to any citizen, nor shall any person be allowed to restrict a citizen from carrying weapons to any place in America."

When asked the most obvious question, La Pierre replied in the affirmative: "Just because a man shot nine or ten people to death while committing a botched armed robbery, doesn't mean he doesn't have the right to defend himself using the most effective means."

La Pierre also affirmed the second most obvious question: "You never know. You might be standing in line at the bank and some bad guy with a gun just whips it out and starts shooting up the place. If you are forced to wait for the police to arrive everyone in the bank would be dead. You have the absolute right to pull out your M60 machine gun and apply a Second Amendment solution, and this new law guarantees you'll never be punished for following the Constitution."

An M60 machine gun is roughly the size of a four-year-old boy and can cause nearly as much damage.

When informed that President Obama vetoed the bill on the hood of a car out in the driveway so it couldn't contaminate the White House by being brought inside, La Pierre shrugged it off. "He only has three-fifths of a veto so it doesn't count."

NRA spokesman Ted Nugent was ecstatic. "As all good Americans know, the Constitution only has two parts. One of them allows me to sue anyone who claims I dodged the draft by covering myself in rancid shit, even though I did. The other lets me walk around in the woods hunting ground squirrels with a loaded 81mm mortar if I want to. Right after the law was passed, I tried it...I think there's something wrong with my mortar because I put a round in it and it flew right back out again. It totally blew the shit out of the building where I keep all my guitars and bowhunting gear. And then I tried it nine more times...all those accidental discharges blew up my house, all my cars, the museum I built to display my Grammy award if I ever win one...I'm taking this defective piece of shit right back to the store."

Great Trump slam on a readerboard today

There is a self-storage place along I-90 in Spokane that has a readerboard along the freeway with various cute sayings on it. Today's:

BAN PRE-SHREDDED CHEESE. MAKE AMERICA GRATE AGAIN.

Supreme Court hypothetical time

The situation: It's January 21, 2017. We have a Democratic president, a Democratic House, 65 seats in the Senate and eight Supreme Court justices, thanks to Mitch McConnell's strange theory that the National Rifle Association has to sign off on any and all Supreme Court picks.

At this time we can pick whoever the hell we want to replace Fat Tony Scalia. Who should it be?

Ed Force One damaged in ramp incident



http://ironmaiden.com/news/article/ed-force-one-damaged

Iron Maiden's tour plane (a Boeing 747) was on the ground in Santiago, Chile, being towed to the refueling point. A connecting pin fell out of the steering mechanism connecting the tug to the plane, without the knowledge of the ground crew. When the tug operators attempted to turn, the plane kept going straight...fucking up two engines to the point they probably need replaced, damaging the undercarriage and injuring the two tug operators. Fortunately, the operators are on their way to a full recovery and the plane is fixable.

If anyone wants a Holga, get it quick - they will soon be history

http://www.freestylephoto.biz/holga-cameras

Holgas, the hip little film camera of the "art photography" movement, are made in China. Or WERE, anyway. The factory that made them has closed, so if you want a really cheap 120 camera (that you have to wrap in duct tape to make lightproof, but anyway...) go get one now before they're all gone.

Well...you were wondering...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10027686892

Hillary takes all three NC military counties

There are three military bases in North Carolina. All are highly dependent on the military for their civilian economies.

Ft. Bragg is in Cumberland County.
Hillary 66%, Bernie 28%

Seymour Johnson Air Force Base is in Wayne County.
Hillary 63%, Bernie 29%

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune is in Onslow County.
Hillary 60%, Bernie 33%
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