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Tue Sep 18, 2012, 07:14 PM

Democrats Now Favored to Retain Senate

September 18, 2012

Nate Silver's latest forecast has the odds of Democrats retining control of the U.S. Senate after November's election -- either by having at least 50 seats and the presidency, or 51 without it -- have increased in recent weeks to a 70% chance.

"The trend toward Democrats is a relatively recent one. Part of the shift may reflect the bounce President Obama received from the Democratic convention... But our analysis also suggests that the Democratic advantage has probably been building over the past few weeks, and may not have any one root cause. Instead, Republicans risk death by a thousand cuts, with a gradual deterioration in their standing in several important races, and their inability to field optimal candidates in others."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/18/democrats_now_favored_to_retain_senate.html

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/fivethirtyeight-forecast-g-o-p-senate-hopes-slipping/

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 07:46 PM

1. Presidency followed by the Senate

Since the 17th Amendment of the 1910s, here were the presidential election years in which one of both houses of Congress flipped parties (from Democratic to Republican or Republican to Democratic):

1932: Senate went Democratic
1948: Senate and House both went Democratic
1952: Senate and House both went Republican
1980: Senate went Republican

What do they all have in common?

The parties that won over the Senate and/or House prevailed as well with the presidency. Only 1948 was a party hold for the presidency (with Harry Truman, whose party lost both houses of Congress with the midterm of 1946, elected to a full term and getting both the Senate and House to flip to his party).

What this means is that, for the Republicans to win over majority control of the Senate, they will first have to win over the White House with Mitt Romney.

Does anyone think Romney will be unseating President Barack Obama?

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 07:52 PM

2. "their inability to field optimal candidates"

No shit! Like the top of the ticket, and the second on their ticket, and, and, and, etc.

They are digging themselves into a hole out of which it's going to difficult to extricate themselves. And they are so clueless that they cannot even see it.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 07:57 PM

3. I sure hope its true. Remember Rove and company pacs are still hanging out there and they

 

may say hell with Romney lets concentrate on the senate and house. They can throw money and still win. Dems have to go vote in high numbers so they can't cheat. We need to overwhelm them. I think people finally are paying attention and see what the republicans want to do.

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Response to southernyankeebelle (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 08:05 PM

5. The Republican SuperPAC at this point are wasting money

 

and I'm just happy to oblige them - since their ads are completely useless now we have the truth on our side.

Mittwit and their *PACs cannot eke out a win, and is already in danger of losing even more than expected to lose because of utter stupidity and insults.

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 09:30 PM

8. Not just the truth (had lots of that), but the Self-Evident Truth that needs no explanation. nt

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Response to Panasonic (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 09:44 PM

9. Gee I hope your right. But I dunno.

 

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 08:03 PM

4. Not only retain the Senate

 

but unexpectedly wins four additional seats. (I won't reveal which ones just yet - need to study the demographics to be sure)

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 08:45 PM

6. Woohoo!

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 08:52 PM

7. It's a good thing the repukes choose idiots as their candidates

so that us Democrats can laugh at them when they lose.

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 09:47 PM

10. Big round of applause to the man who made it all possible:



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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Tue Sep 18, 2012, 10:03 PM

11. In the past week Scott Brown went from 57% to 42% on Intrade

Quite a dramatic fall.

About a week ago, Scott Brown was given about a 57.5% chance of winning on Intrade. Today it's down to 42.5%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

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Response to TroyD (Reply #11)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:46 AM

12. Outside of president, this is THE race I have been focusing on

I think this is the seat that, life or death, controls the senate.

I can't see the Rs getting it if Warren wins, and I think the Ds are going to be in REAL trouble holding it if Brown retains his seat.

This is the bell weather for an R senate PU vs the Ds holding, IMO.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #12)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 07:49 AM

13. 4th poll gives Warren the lead: WBUR poll (Warren +5)

See the thread I just posted this morning.

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Response to TroyD (Reply #13)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:34 AM

14. For the last three, four days

polling in the senate races has been breaking very clearly toward the Ds.

This is SO important. A little margin would be nice, of course.

But, they HAVE to hold the senate, even 50/50 with the president reelected, to keep the Rs from just eviscerating him in his second term.

Sad, just sad.

IDEALLY, you want the majorities to actually get some things done.

But, they are SO far gone right now, you want to see them out of power just to keep them from going completely off the hinges.

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #14)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:04 AM

16. My only concern is . . .

I hope the Democratic numbers aren't peaking too soon, because you are right that the Senate numbers have been VERY good over the past week, and Nate Silver has said the same thing.

Florida - Nelson way ahead of Mack

Massachusetts - Warren has now powered into a lead over Brown in 4 different polls

Wisconsin - Baldwin has finally moved up and Tied with Thompson

Virginia - Kaine ahead in most polls and may be breaking away


It would be great if the election were next week - the question is, will these numbers hold for another 6 weeks?

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Response to TroyD (Reply #16)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 01:53 PM

18. Yeah

Still a LOT of time.

I do find myself wishing the election was next week ...

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Response to TroyD (Original post)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 08:58 AM

15. The box score? 23-10

Democrats did so well in 2006 that there are only ten Republican seats up for election this time around, out of 33.

Just holding on to the Senate means we have to crush the Republicans, winning at least two elections for every one that they win.

This should have been their year to lose. It would appear as if they are on their way... to losing it.

If we pull it off, we can expect the media to focus entirely on the margin of majority in the Senate, rather than the fact that just holding on to it is a devastating, resounding victory for the Democratic Party, representative of a massive chorus of approval from voters.

But we'll know. And if we can keep the momentum into 2014, a filibuster-proof, delay-proof Congress can be ours for two short years--perhaps enough time to fix things well enough that the GOP is never invited back in numbers which can harm the American people as they have for the past thirty years.

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Response to sofa king (Reply #15)

Wed Sep 19, 2012, 10:02 AM

17. Well that is the downside of winning a whole bunch of senate seats in one year

Then 6 years on we have to defend them. I think the Senate will be damn close maybe 51-49 or 52-48 (including the independent running in Maine).

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